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Volodymyr Dacenko

@Volodymyr_D_

Jun 12

Resources of war
Can Russia sustain this war for years? Here are some calculations to help estimate this.
Thread 1/
@RALee85 @olliecarroll @ragnarbjartur @konrad_muzyka @McFaul @HelloMrBond @SpencerGuard @JominiW

Let's start with artillery, which looks the most vulnerable
Standard calculations of the resource of artillery barrels show that at the current rate of firing, Ru needs about 2.5-4К barrels per year. If we add to this direct losses in battles, Ru total need is about 4-5K per year

Read 20 tweets

Volodymyr Dacenko

@Volodymyr_D_

Jun 6

Half a year ago, I joined the procurement reform team of the Ministry of Defense-the Non-Lethal Procurement Agency (DOT)
This is my second "campaign" for reforms in the defense sector after Ukroboronprom in 2019. And here I would like to share some thoughts and my own experience

2/ Soviet architecture and corruption are the worst things Ukraine inherited from the USSR. In Soviet times, corruption was the only way to become a wealthy person. Wealth and commerce were prohibited by law, but the desire of people to live better did not disappear anywhere.

3/ For the first twenty years after the collapse of the USSR, Ukrainian society was aware of the problem of corruption, eventually defining it as the main enemy of democracy and the development of the state.

Read 16 tweets

Volodymyr Dacenko

@Volodymyr_D_

Nov 13, 2023

Struggle for resources
When Ukrainians say that we need more weapons, the West often thinks that it is a sign of ingratitude.
In fact, Ukrainians are grateful, but there is another side - how many weapons your enemy supplies to the front.
This thread will explore this topic 1/

2/ Russia
Many people look down on the Russian army after its defeats in Ukraine in the first year of the war.
But the Russian doctrine is based on the fact that Russia is able to withstand heavy defeats and incredible losses, but not to give up its political goals.

https://twitter.com/HighMarsed/status/1704253403994501378

3/ Ru is still a significant power, if not in terms of the quality of weapons, but in terms of their quantity.
Since the beginning of the war, Ru has removed approximately 6,000 howitzers from its storage facilities.

https://twitter.com/HighMarsed/status/1704253403994501378

Read 24 tweets

Volodymyr Dacenko

@Volodymyr_D_

Oct 31, 2023

Russia spent $22.8 billion on missile attacks on Ukraine.
This is more than half of all US military aid to Ukraine ($43 billion).
A short thread about missile attacks this winter: 1/7

2/7 Despite the sanctions, Russia has increased its missile production and can now produce about 100 missiles per month.
In October, Russia reduced the intensity of its use of missiles, apparently preparing for winter attacks on UA energy.

3/7 Air Defense Ukraine has become much more effective than a year ago. If until October 2022, Ukrainian air defenses shot down about 30% of missiles, then after the transfer of NASAMS, Iris-T, Patriot, Samp-T, Ukrainian air defenses began to intercept up to 80-90% of missiles.

Read 7 tweets

Volodymyr Dacenko

@Volodymyr_D_

Jun 22, 2023

The beginning of the offensive is the most difficult stage of the attack.
If you do not expect to catch the enemy by surprise, then the beginning of the assault is the most challenging stage 1/8
Inspired by: @bradyafr @WarintheFuture @Inkvisiit

2/8
At the beginning of the offensive, the enemy is in the most advantageous position:
1. The army has been preparing for defense for a long time and has strong defensive positions.
2. There are still enough soldiers to hold the defense and there are also reserves.

3/8
3. Artillery is ready, there is still enough ammunition.
4. Aviation works in its airspace.
5. Any accumulation of equipment or soldiers is easily tracked.
6. Breaking through several layers of minefields will inevitably lead to the loss of equipment

Read 8 tweets

Volodymyr Dacenko

@Volodymyr_D_

Jun 8, 2023

@CITeam_en

What happened to Kakhovska HPP
Debunking myths about self-destruction
1/15
@CITeam_en @nytimes @TheStudyofWar @washingtonpost @leonidvolkov @shashj

1. Some believe that the dam collapsed on its own due to previous damage. Satellite images of water discharge are cited as evidence 2/15

3/15 But it is enough to look at satellite images from last year (before the first blow-up of the HPP station by the Russians - 2022/10/18) to make sure that the pattern of water discharge was the same and does not indicate damage to the dam

Read 15 tweets

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