Struggle for resources
When Ukrainians say that we need more weapons, the West often thinks that it is a sign of ingratitude.
In fact, Ukrainians are grateful, but there is another side - how many weapons your enemy supplies to the front.
This thread will explore this topic 1/
2/ Russia
Many people look down on the Russian army after its defeats in Ukraine in the first year of the war.
But the Russian doctrine is based on the fact that Russia is able to withstand heavy defeats and incredible losses, but not to give up its political goals.
3/ Ru is still a significant power, if not in terms of the quality of weapons, but in terms of their quantity.
Since the beginning of the war, Ru has removed approximately 6,000 howitzers from its storage facilities.
Russia spent $22.8 billion on missile attacks on Ukraine.
This is more than half of all US military aid to Ukraine ($43 billion).
A short thread about missile attacks this winter: 1/7
2/7 Despite the sanctions, Russia has increased its missile production and can now produce about 100 missiles per month.
In October, Russia reduced the intensity of its use of missiles, apparently preparing for winter attacks on UA energy.
3/7 Air Defense Ukraine has become much more effective than a year ago. If until October 2022, Ukrainian air defenses shot down about 30% of missiles, then after the transfer of NASAMS, Iris-T, Patriot, Samp-T, Ukrainian air defenses began to intercept up to 80-90% of missiles.
The beginning of the offensive is the most difficult stage of the attack.
If you do not expect to catch the enemy by surprise, then the beginning of the assault is the most challenging stage 1/8
Inspired by: @bradyafr @WarintheFuture @Inkvisiit
2/8
At the beginning of the offensive, the enemy is in the most advantageous position: 1. The army has been preparing for defense for a long time and has strong defensive positions. 2. There are still enough soldiers to hold the defense and there are also reserves.
3/8 3. Artillery is ready, there is still enough ammunition. 4. Aviation works in its airspace. 5. Any accumulation of equipment or soldiers is easily tracked. 6. Breaking through several layers of minefields will inevitably lead to the loss of equipment
1. Some believe that the dam collapsed on its own due to previous damage. Satellite images of water discharge are cited as evidence 2/15
3/15 But it is enough to look at satellite images from last year (before the first blow-up of the HPP station by the Russians - 2022/10/18) to make sure that the pattern of water discharge was the same and does not indicate damage to the dam
Before a counteroffensive, Ukraine probably has as many tanks as Russia.
Russia has also lost most of its advantage in ground military equipment.
Brief overview: 1/5
2/5 Ukraine had 858 tanks at the beginning of the war (the Military Balance). In 14 months, 605+ tanks were delivered by the Allies (including about 90+ Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks). Another 80 Leopard 1 will arrive in June. Also, the AFU captured at least 544 Ru tanks
3/5 Oryx estimates UA losses at 495 tanks. According to experts, Oryx data cover about 80% of total losses. Therefore, the total losses of UA may amount to 620 tanks.
Thus, the available number of tanks for a counteroffensive is 1400 or so.
3/7 I recently did some research on the cost of destroying different targets with different means here. Now I have detailed and clarified it. forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine…