Janis Kluge Profile picture
Jul 27, 2022 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Just in: New batch of statistics on the Russian economy in June 2022!

Output in June 22 compared to June 21:
Cars: -89% (a few more than in May)
Trucks: -40%
Washing machines: -58.4%
Fridges/freezers: -52.3%

1/

rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediab…
Industrial output in June 22 has not changed from May 22 (accounting for seasonal effects).

2/ Image
We already know from #Gazprom's statistics:

Natural #gas production was down significantly in June, totalling 39.3bcm (May: 49bcm).

Russian gas production is now 23.3% lower than in June 21, reflecting the gas cut-off of the EU.

3/
Russian manufacturing continued to slide in June 22, taking into account seasonal factors (it always rises in June in absolute terms because of all the May holidays).

4/ Image
Russia's tabacco industry continues to struggle:
Cigarettes: -32.4% yoy (down 16.6% from May 22)

Chemical industry also weaker:
Ammonia: -21% yoy (-6.6% from May 22)
Potash: -32.1% yoy (-6.5% from May 22)

Russian pharma continues to boom (also pharma imports): +16.5% yoy.

5/
There is a strong contraction in some corners of the #glass industry, especially sheet glass. In June 22, #Russia produced 2.4 million m², which is 64.5% less than in June 21 and 23.6% less than in May 22.

6/
Computer & electronics had a bad month. The reason could be exhausted inventory:

Semiconductors: -39.6% yoy.

Monthly comparison even more drastic:
May 22: 5.3 million pieces
June 22: 2.5 million pieces

7/
A closer look at the Russian automobile industry: There was a tiny rebound, but overall still in the deepest crisis (40%-90% less than last year).

13,400 cars (after 3,700 in May).
13,100 ICE motors (after 11,400 in May).
10,300 trucks (after 7,600 in May).

8/
Retail trade turnover in #Russia remains depressed, 9.6% below last year (in real terms).

9/ Image
Wholesale turnover in #Russia continues to fall, now 18.3% below last year (in real terms).

10/ Image

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More from @jakluge

Jun 16
The West needs to rethink sanctions and move from ad hoc measures to long-term economic containment. Russia will remain a threat to Europe for many years to come. The future of European security depends on the future of Russian economic might. 1/
brookings.edu/wp-content/upl…
Image
After two years of unprecedented sanctions, the Russian economy has exceeded expectations. Yes, sanctions have had a clear impact, but they leave Putin with enough resources to militarize Russia in the coming years and turn it into a conventional military threat to Europe. 2/
Time is an advantage for Russia. It allows for adaptation, new infrastructure, new supply chains, etc. But time can also be an advantage for the West - if it takes a strategic approach: Bolder restrictions on Russian energy exports are possible if markets have time to adjust. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 5
Ein sehr gutes und wichtiges Gespräch zum Thema "Verhandlungen und Einfrieren" von @AliceBota und @MichaelOThumann. Es geht um die alten Mythen der Russlandpolitik, die gerade durch Wagenknecht und Mützenich eine Renaissance erleben, aber auch um die Verhandlungen von 2022. 1/6
Der Text von Charap&Radchenko ist dabei ebenfalls Thema. Michael Thumann berichtet von seinen Gesprächen mit Unterhändlern in Istanbul. Alice Bota beobachtet gut, dass alle russischen Äußerungen von den Autoren des Textes (geradezu ahistorisch) für bare Münze genommen werden. 2/6
Ganz zu schweigen von der (wie ich finde: unsäglichen) Überschrift des Artikels, die letztlich das einzige ist, was bei vielen hängen bleiben wird (und nebenbei Putins Propaganda bestätigt). Wirklich gut dagegen der Titel des Podcasts: "Dann halt einfrieren". 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Apr 16
The key problem I have with this piece is the assumption that Putin agreed to, or even cared much for, the Istanbul Communique at the time. The authors seem to have their own doubts (Putin agreed to debate the status of Crimea with Ukraine?).
1/4

foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-…
The authors fail to point out that Putin didn't appear to be deeply involved in the process at the time and only began bringing up the supposed "almost deal" much later, with the rather obvious intention to discredit the West and improve his image with the Global South. 2/4
I also find the role of Chalyi... interesting. He appears to be a key witness of the "Putin wanted a deal" theory. While he was part of the negotiations, he was criticized in Ukraine for being too understanding of Russia (maybe that's why Kyiv hoped he could help negotiate?). 3/4
Read 6 tweets
Mar 13
Although it will take many more attacks on refineries to create a real gasoline shortage in Russia (and even then, Belarus has available capacities), it is an effective strategy for many reasons:
1.) A gasoline shortage would be a political nightmare for Putin, because it would..
.. be felt and discussed by everyone. Gasoline prices are political, even in Russia. Average Russians are not willing to pay a price for the war.
2.) Refineries are important for the military. Of course the military will not feel shortages, but refineries are legitimate targets.
3.) There are very few civilian casualties. High gas prices make people angry, but nobody will starve, freeze etc. due to the attacks.
4.) Attacks on Russian refineries don't lead to rising oil prices globally, as long as crude exports continue. The effect is felt only in Russia.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
Why won't the Kremlin agree to a compromise in Ukraine? The answer lies in Putin's motives. Initially, it may have been imperialism and a desire to control Ukraine. That was bad enough, and difficult enough to stop. But after the full-scale invasion began, the motives changed.
The reason is that the Ukrainian military exposed the weakness of Putin's regime. Russia was humiliated on the world stage. Since then, it is not about domination: Putin needs to destroy Ukraine and humiliate the West because they openly challenged him and exposed his weakness.
Putin can't let Ukraine get away with this. Throughout his time in power, he has carefully cultivated a reputation for destroying and humiliating those who openly challenge him. Crucially, this destruction must be a spectacle, shocking and demoralizing. Saving face is not enough.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 18, 2023
There are two dominant arguments in the Western discourse on Russia's war against Ukraine:
1.) Russia is weaker than it seems, the war and Putinism will go away once Ukraine kicks Russia out.
2.) Russia is stronger than it seems, so some kind of deal with Russia is necessary.
It is difficult to go beyond these lines of thought: If you point out Russian strength, there's an automatic suspicion that you want to porpose a deal with Russia, or that you're not loyal to the Ukrainian cause.
This is because the "Russia is tough" argument is often misused and distorted by pro-Russian voices ("Russia cannot be defeated") who want to stir up fear and hopelessness or suggest that there is no reasonable option but to give in to Putin. This, of course, is propaganda.
Read 5 tweets

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