I’m relieved & moved by what I see of the new federal govt; vision, strength openness, empathy, respect have returned. Which makes the tolerance of COVID’s phenomenal impact, that especially targets our most vulnerable people, all the harder to reconcile. #COVI19Aus. 1/
It’s not that nothing is happening. HM Butler, a person I respect greatly, has put COVID on the agenda, the AHPPC published a strong update & it was terrific to have intervention on isolation payments. But COVID is still treated nowhere near the national emergency it is. 2/
In what was predicable & predicted, we have wave after wave of an evolving new virus of humans. Around 13 million Australians have been infected this year, now commonly re-infected, millions with a 5-10 day illness that is devastating our hospitals & wider society. 3/
Half a million of who are likely go on to get some form of organ damage (#LongCOVID). 9,000 have died this year often older, poorer or more marginalised Australian’s. These are not people dying incidentally with COVID, nor are they in their ‘last days’. These are myths. 4/
These are lives cut short. We’re likely to go close to doubling this number by year’s end. It is fundamentally changing our mortality, life-expectancy landscape. The figures above are is ‘baked in’ (terrible expression) for 2022. The human & societal toll enormous. 5/
But we now know what to expect, there are no excuses looking ahead. What we do from now will determine if we get another 13 million acute infections, 500,000 or so long COVID cases 5-10,000 deaths in the next 6 months. 6/
Our govt is not alone in their timidity with COVID, & going against the tide is tough. But as they are demonstrating elsewhere, strong empathetic leadership is well within their capacity. It will take courage to stand up & say we are choosing another way. The low COVID way. 7/
For us all - esp for our healthcare system & those who need it, for our workforce & the businesses & schools, charities that rely on them, & for our most vulnerable - we need the PM to unambiguously state that he intends to turn this ship around. Come hell or high water. 8/end
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A thread on easing of public health interventions. In short, debating individual public health measures is not where to start the conversation. It is not very meaningful if the overall strategy is unclear. Most importantly, how much value do we put on reducing transmission? 1/
Clearly it’s good for health to have less COVID but what about the operations of aged care, health care, business in general, retail, travel, hospitality, schools? Are more or less infected people good for their operation? 2/
If the answer is less (of course it is), what package of approaches has the best impact on reducing infections with the least disruption on a functioning society? 3/
The notion that there’s nothing we can do as the Qld CHO & many other advocate - that everyone getting infected, regularly & repeatedly, is ok & desirable so some magically benign endemicity will be achieved - is flawed. It is not scientifically sound. 1/
It’s not just untrue (COVID transmission can be reduced with vax, high-quality masks, airborne mitigation & iso of infected people & close contacts) but dangerous; esp. to huge numbers of vulnerable people & unvaccinated kids, & also to acute & long-term health of everyone. 2/
It also fosters continued virus evolution, guaranteeing worse SARS-Cov2 variants - BA.2 not the end. The irony is, as omicron showed, that a ‘hands off’ approach promotes disease-driven disruption (shadow lockdown) to the economy during a wave. 3/
Brilliant analysis on the death toll for the pandemic's first 2 years. As thought, excess deaths ~3x more than confirmed COVID deaths at 18.2 million people. Greater than the effect of the BIG 3 (HIV, TB and malaria combined). Still ongoing of course. 1/
Tragic as it is for the world, from a parochial Oz point of view this highlights an extraordinary success over this period. For example, had we had the same rate as the US (~1.2m people died there), Australia would have had ~100,000 additional deaths 2/
Furthermore, Oz was able to vaccinate much of its population BEFORE they encountered the virus - as many eventually did during the omicron wave beginning in dec 2021. The formal policy of no community transmission delivered these extraordinary outcomes; credit to all Govts. 3/
I do understand wrestling with mask mandates in various settings, & for different mask strategies in times of lower transmission vs times of higher threat. But in the midst of a pandemic as we still are, reducing requirement for their use is nothing to celebrate. 1/
There will be more transmission as a result, and so more illness & death. I have said before that we may have a longer term baseline COVID mortality (ie, not counting peaks with new variants) of 40 or so per day given what is being tolerated in other comparable countries. 2/
That’s 10,000+ deaths in a year (we are close to 3,000 this year in Australia already). Relaxing public health measures makes this more likely. 3/
Record COVID cases & deaths (with figures for long COVID and excess deaths still to come), code brown, elective surgery ban, delays on ambulances, a whole health system - primary & tertiary - under enormous strain, vulnerable people & communities at serious risk. 1/
To understand COVID impact you can cherry pick the stat you like (eg, case fatality rate), or use a complicated, moving target measure (eg, ICU), or explain away deaths (aged, underlying conditions), or normalize (just like flu), 2/
or justify (eg, to build an apocryphal wall of immunity or must think about the economy), or even ignore (eg, long COVID) …or you can just look up and see that omicron has brought us to our knees; devastated our health, health system, economy & society. 3/
There is much more in this piece including why the ‘plus’ in vaccinesPlus is crucial (ie, current vaccines are not enough, although next-Gen vaccines might be), & how inequity is so central to the pandemic. 2/
Answers to new challenges: (1) Face facts - we must pragmatically face facts openly & early; no minimization but also no panic, we know what to do; 3/