Thread by @APhilosophae

Who you gonna believe—me, or your lyin' eyes?

https://twitter.com/CortesSteve/status/1552698158744064000

Recessions have always been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth because it's an objective measure, any definition otherwise is revisionist history much like the 1619 project, redefining of gender, or that the parties swapped sides. Its copium at the highest levels.

Want to examine it further? You'll find corporate earnings are down, jobless claims are up, the market is crabbing at the bottom of a sell-off, commodity prices are cratering, and the housing market is headed downhill.

To look at the overall picture, and be like "well ackchually the old definition isn't the official definition and it's not a real recession because unemployment is down" when unemployment is still recovering to the mean from the mother of all black swan events 2yrs ago is #cope

Trying to discredit the rule of thumb & then create a random definition as the "official" definition is soviet tier BS. Its like saying guys identifying as women are #realwomen . They arent. Its delusional to think that. And its delusional to think this isnt a real recession.

So why deny basic facts? They know the moment they acknowledge we're in a recession it will send risk assets to the moon and their only response will be to cut the money printers back on potentially leading to a real crash.

The longer they put it off and make it look like everything is fine and great and going to be amazing for everyone, the worse its going to get. Just listen to what former Democrat advisors have said. These are people who are champions of the left and even they cant sugar coat it:

Larry Summers, Democratic economist who served in both the Clinton and Obama: "We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation – in other words, we need two years of 7.5% unemployment or five years of 6% unemployment or one year of 10% unemployment."

12 months at 10% inflation is the quickest way out. You think heading into midterms or a 2024 Presidential election ruling Democrats are going to take us to 10% inflation to bite the bullet!? No way! They've elections to win so they'll string this out long and slow.

And Republicans are no better. Name 1 #GOP who is willing to run on taking us to 10% unemployment just so we can most quickly get over the hump? Exactly. This is going to be a long, painful recession. Just listen to what Summers went on to say:

"The U.S. may need as severe monetary tightening as Paul Volcker pushed through in the late 1970s, early 1980s,” Summers said, citing the former Fed chief who famously raised rates sharply in his battle against stagflation, sparking a SEVERE recession.

MarketWatch’s Jeffry Bartash made it clear that Summers is talking about real economic pain. “Put in starker terms, the U.S. would have to endure a second recession in three years and as many as 10 million people would have to lose their jobs.”

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said this on the recession "...the Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices rise further, even if activity slows sharply."

If you look to the unserious, ideological and dogmatic actions of the modern beltway class and those in corporate power positions that support them it is abundantly clear that thoughtful, logical reasoning will NOT be applied to get us out of and through this recession.

In April I made this short thread on tips and helpful ways to help buffer against a coming recession. I'll leave it here because your family, businesses, and any organizations you belong to need to insulate as much as possible against whats coming.

https://twitter.com/APhilosophae/status/1514018006237683714?t=2BUaUBuDu6zWVEMKDKNxmQ&s=19

The Oligarchs, Aristocrats, and Beltway Class are to blame. They are the plague. They are responsible for all the economic pain you feel now and all the economic pain to come.

Be Kind To Your Neighbors.

***10% unemployment, not inflation

https://twitter.com/APhilosophae/status/1552707254473949188?t=2BUaUBuDu6zWVEMKDKNxmQ&s=19