Thread by @lxeagle17

Haven't seen a battleground state poll with this many red-flags lately for Rs.

#PAGov: Shapiro 50 (51% favorable, 34% unfavorable), Mastriano 40 (38% favorable, 48% unfavorable)

#PASen: Fetterman 47 (49% favorable, 34% unfavorable), Oz 36 (35% favorable, 55% unfavorable)

Shapiro has a >$10M fundraising advantage on Mastriano. The bigger problem for Mastriano, though, is that he has < $1M in COH and the RGA has no desire to get involved. With polls like this, you see why. Against a candidate like Shapiro with those numbers, that's a tough climb up

You can't get voters to like you or hear of you if you have no money, and the other problem is that virtually everyone who does hear of Mastriano and isn't a Republican seems to hate him. Tough to win a gubernatorial election that way, especially with those Shapiro favorables.

The primary was over two months ago, and you'd expect Oz to begin recovering at some point. Problem is, his numbers are just as bad now as they were then. Money probably won't be a problem for either side here. But it's way tougher to win a swing seat election with -20 favorables

It's not really a controversial take to say that if the election was held today, Democrats would sweep both Pennsylvania races. Republicans should be thankful it's not and figure out how the hell to reprioritize and pivot. That statewide ticket is as popular as a traffic jam.

Even with a 2020-sized polling error, you'd still end up with a Shapiro and Fetterman win if those were the numbers in November. It's only July, though, so the best thing is to wait and see (unless you're a campaign operative, in which case you probably should act instead)

like I said, there's nothing good in this poll for the GOP except for the date. With that said, we've seen races reverse this sharply before, so wait and see. All you can say is that *right now*, you'd rather be Dems in PA. Not sure if that'll be so in Nov

https://twitter.com/Pallas_ca/status/1552790399294402560?s=20&t=gPZVSZFhJnMH7G9KD0zGCA