OK, so... it turns out the new Abacus poll isn't catastrophic for the Liberals/JT after all. Much of that inflated CPC national lead is in BC (which is always chaotic to poll) and out west (where they run up dictator margins anyway). Thread with some of my thoughts... #cdnpoli 1/
The Liberals are well ahead in the Atlantic and statistically tied in Quebec and Ontario. That's the ballgame. The CPC need to run the tables in Ontario to have any shot of forming govt. This poll would *still* see LPC forming government were an election held today. #cdnpoli 2/
JT's "negative approvals" are primarily from Conservatives and QC separatists who already don't like him. He supposedly isn't doing great with "NDP voters" (-24) and yet he is +47 among self-identified left-of-centre folks. Key indicator for strategic voting. #cdnpoli 3/
The mythical "centrists" being warned about are most likely grouchy about the economy. As the economy improves, this rating is likely to go up too. Remember, JT has 3 years of runway that Biden and Ardern don't have. #cdnpoli 4/
Poll seems to indicate perceptions of Skippy are more "neutral" than expected. Which seems to go against the previous poll showing him to be a loser in a head-to-head matchup. I'm chalking this up to the wildness of summer polling. But... #cdnpoli 5/
...even if this is true, it means that the Liberals have their work cut out for them in "defining" him, with all the free material he's given them over 20 years as an MP and the convoy this year alone. They did it with O'Toole and Scheer, they'll do it with him too. #cdnpoli 6/
What this poll does *not* mean: Anything, really, for an election in 2025. It also does not mean that PMJT is "dragging down the brand" or he's going to have his walk in the snow. A quick reminder of my (lengthy) pinned thread. #cdnpoli 7/
It means that for all the fanfare of Harper's great white dope, the pigeon messiah still can't manage to get the big rig out of the mud in spite of all the headwinds facing PMJT + his govt. There is only wear and tear attributable to time. Skippymania does not exist. #cdnpoli 8/
So is it a sign that LPC ought to plan for some kind of "refresh"? Sure. Should that refresh be a leadership change? NO! In fact it would probably backfire! Is it a sure sign of doom for 2025? Absolutely not! We've got a long way to go and I know who I trust to get us there. /end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
28/ Updated, 2022-05-18 with this spot-on take from Michael Harris. Bird is the word, and if PMJT is to have a swan song sometime in the future, it'll be *after* sending the loonie-economist pigeon back to the cuckoo's nest where he came from. #cdnpoli
29/ Updated, 2022-06-12 with Evan Scrimshaw's contradiction of the latest flare-up of the punditry's pearl-clutching on the issue of "shelf life." #cdnpoli
30/ "Yes, the history of 10+ year Federal govts is short, but ... [several provincial govts] have all done it in in the last 25 years. 'Something has never happened before, therefore it won’t now' has been a very bad guiding light to politics in recent years... #cdnpoli
That's actually why #CdnMediaFailed to incubate trust. Their constant fixation with manufactured Trudeau "scandals" a la Hillary's emails, Hunter's laptop and Obama's tan suit -- amplified and "pundited" ad nauseam while REAL MALFEASANCE BY CONSERVATIVES gets swept under the rug.
When Michael Wernick was warning the public about the precursor to what's happening right now, what was the Canadian media fixated on? JWR's petulant tantrum, and the one-sided narrative that they pushed for MONTHS where the PM was prejudged guilty simply by virtue of accusation.
They ran him out on a rail, a distinguished civil servant, accusing him of being a "partisan hack" raising hackles about assassination threats to distract from the far, far more serious issue of supposed "corruption" and the heroic whistleblower speaking out about her "abuse."