Thread by @MsFuddleDuddle

OK, so... it turns out the new Abacus poll isn't catastrophic for the Liberals/JT after all. Much of that inflated CPC national lead is in BC (which is always chaotic to poll) and out west (where they run up dictator margins anyway). Thread with some of my thoughts... #cdnpoli 1/

The Liberals are well ahead in the Atlantic and statistically tied in Quebec and Ontario. That's the ballgame. The CPC need to run the tables in Ontario to have any shot of forming govt. This poll would *still* see LPC forming government were an election held today. #cdnpoli 2/

JT's "negative approvals" are primarily from Conservatives and QC separatists who already don't like him. He supposedly isn't doing great with "NDP voters" (-24) and yet he is +47 among self-identified left-of-centre folks. Key indicator for strategic voting. #cdnpoli 3/

The mythical "centrists" being warned about are most likely grouchy about the economy. As the economy improves, this rating is likely to go up too. Remember, JT has 3 years of runway that Biden and Ardern don't have. #cdnpoli 4/

Poll seems to indicate perceptions of Skippy are more "neutral" than expected. Which seems to go against the previous poll showing him to be a loser in a head-to-head matchup. I'm chalking this up to the wildness of summer polling. But... #cdnpoli 5/

...even if this is true, it means that the Liberals have their work cut out for them in "defining" him, with all the free material he's given them over 20 years as an MP and the convoy this year alone. They did it with O'Toole and Scheer, they'll do it with him too. #cdnpoli 6/

What this poll does *not* mean: Anything, really, for an election in 2025. It also does not mean that PMJT is "dragging down the brand" or he's going to have his walk in the snow. A quick reminder of my (lengthy) pinned thread. #cdnpoli 7/

https://twitter.com/MsFuddleDuddle/status/1506698575136366595

It means that for all the fanfare of Harper's great white dope, the pigeon messiah still can't manage to get the big rig out of the mud in spite of all the headwinds facing PMJT + his govt. There is only wear and tear attributable to time. Skippymania does not exist. #cdnpoli 8/

So is it a sign that LPC ought to plan for some kind of "refresh"? Sure. Should that refresh be a leadership change? NO! In fact it would probably backfire! Is it a sure sign of doom for 2025? Absolutely not! We've got a long way to go and I know who I trust to get us there. /end