Thread by @BigManBakar

Content overview - A thread

Greetings everyone. Provided below is more of my work during pre-season which you might find useful in building your GW 1 squad:

Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

Fantasy5 is a free game which I play with my FPL acquaintances & friends every week! Not only is it a lot of fun but there's a £10,000 jackpot to play for each week. Play here: 👇🏻

For UK/Ireland users: bit.ly/3oxaMiT

Outside UK/Ireland: fantasy5.com/epl

#ad 🔞

If you want access to my own team this season, I will be sharing both my team & my transfers well in advance every week in my Team Reveal Article for Hub from GW1-38!

There's a 50% discount available! You can sign up to gain access here: 👀

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/join?via=bigma…

I'm still on Haaland over Kane. If you can have a 1.5+ xG against Liverpool, only imagine the kind of chances he'll get against the lesser sides. City create a silly amount of chances and historically, Haaland has been an xG overperformer. Can't look past City v BOU in GW2

I think picking Kane over Haaland at the start is risky.

Not having a City attacker at home to Bournemouth GW2 after a week's rest when over half the game will own him & most will captain could end up in disaster.
Not the kind of risk you want to be taking early on!

Surprised to see the number of managers comfortable with the idea of starting with Kane & then selling for Haaland in GW2.

In my opinion, you should just buy one and stick to whoever you have! Why book in an early transfer? Not ideal

Harry Kane

21/22 league rank since Conte took over

xG: 1st
xA: 1st
xGi: 1st
Big chances: 1st
Big chances created: 1st

Incredible

Kane v Son

Under Conte

Big chance involvements per 90: 1.7 v 1.4
xGi per 90: 1.1 v 0.9

I prefer Kane to Son:

*£0.5 cheaper
*Statistically better (Son is inevitable though)
*Kane was subbed just once v Son who was subbed in 13 of his 26 starts - could increase with 5 subs rule

It’s genuinely so tricky to pick between Son/Kane/Haaland.

The debate is never-ending. Fact of the matter is that are all good in their own right so whether you end up picking the right one will depend personal preference & a bit of luck, especially when it comes to (c) swings.

Going to be difficult to fit Kane/Son in despite the fact that Spurs have SOU in GW1. Got to factor in that Chelsea and Wolves after that are tricky and other premiums like Salah/Haaland consistently have good fixtures all the way uptil GW5

I think a lot of people are exaggerating Martinelli's rotation risk - simply because of his low price of £6m.
He's looked very sharp in pre-season. Smith Rowe has played 45 minutes throughout. Martinelli should be safe for the first few games at least

Still prefer Martinelli + £2m over Saka. Saka is probably a better pick in isolation but there's so many nice things you can do with the extra £2m. Gives you a lot more depth

7 goals for Jesus is the most any player has managed this pre-season. By far the highest owned player as we head into GW1

Zinchenko is a solid pick at £5m but his attacking threat is exaggerated. Across 38 starts over the past 3 seasons, he created just 6 big chances playing for a superior team. He's likely to play as left back at Arsenal as well with Tierney playing just 45 mins in pre-season

Arsenal have looked so so good in pre-season. Great set of fixtures to begin with as well. Will definitely begin with a triple up to start with - spoilt for options with so many choices though. Jesus is locked in - Ramsdale & Martinelli my other two at the moment

Been reading up on Arsenal and catching some of their pre-season highlights. They look razor sharp. Great fixtures to begin with as well. Lots of options in FPL across the board too! If there's any team other than City & Liverpool I feel comfortable tripling up on, it's Arsenal

Fulham (a) and Palace (H) the first two for Liverpool then. Haul territories. Triple up without a doubt

Liverpool: ful CPL mun BOU
City: whm BOU new CPL

Points per game since GW14:

KdB/Son 8.3
Mahrez 7.8
Robertson 7.4
Salah 7.3
Maddison 6.9
Bowen/Doherty 6.4
Kane/Kulu 6.3
Ronaldo 6.1
Trent 5.7

Robertson £7m...

If you are considering Robertson ahead of Trent, don't:

Trent v Robertson
This calendar year
Big chance involvements: 8 v 6
xGi: 5.8 v 4.5
FPL points: 80 v 117

Trent was one of the most underperforming defenders in this period while Robertson was the most overperforming!

0 clean sheets for Chelsea in pre-season but James is yet to leave my draft. I believe that he's too good as an asset to leave out if Chelsea are playing five at the back - which I expect them do. Only behind Trent for xGi per 90 last season and averaged over 6 points per start

Big at the back with Trent, Robertson, Cancelo and James should be on despite the value that the £4.5m defenders are offering. The consistency & explosiveness of premium defenders is generally unparalleled by the £7-8m midfielders and forwards

Seen a few people suggest that the premium defences tend to start slowly & take time to settle down before keeping clean sheets regularly. Worth noting that City started with 5 clean sheets in their first six fixtures last season, Liverpool/Chelsea kept 4. This is just a myth!

This is the first time in my FPL career that I haven't been tempted by a £4.0m defender. Just shows you how much the FPL landscape has changed.

Defender slots are incredibly precious this season - too many reliable high upside picks in the game for me to save cash in defence!

This is a season where I won't worry too much about price points & structure in GW1.

What's important is to prioritize expected points rather than opt for a more flexible structure which makes holding WC easier. Even if things go wrong, you have 2 WCs to fall back on till GW18!

"He has a lot of flexibility to his game. He's played 6, 8, 10, he can play striker. He's an intelligent guy, he's able and that's the reason why we use him in a lot of positions, because he's very adaptable."

Marsch on £4.5m Sam Greenwood. Best £4.5m forward out there!

xGi per 90

Since Conte took over

Trent 0.48
Reguilon 0.46
Doherty 0.41
Chilwell 0.37
James/Cancelo 0.35
Robertson 0.30

Look at the Spurs wing backs. Perisic at £5.5m is tasty. I have no doubts that he will be an absolute beast this season but Conte’s comments are worrying

No defender in the Serie A had a better xGi per 90 than Perisic under Conte in 20/21. Also worth noting that Spurs have conceded the fewest big chances in the league since Conte has joined.

xGi per 90

21/22

Trent 0.5
Doherty/James 0.4
Cancelo/Regi 0.33
Chilwell 0.28
Robertson 0.25

Perisic had a xGi per 90 of 0.44 in 20/21 under Conte & 0.39 last season. With those numbers, he's up there with the very best!

Spurs defence since Conte took over:

Big chances conceded: 1st
Goals conceded: 3rd
Clean sheets: 3rd
xG conceded: 4th

Big, big potential for the wing-backs

Worth noting that Perisic failed to last for more than 60 mins on 15 out of the 32 appearances (47%) that he made under Conte in the Serie A in 20/21 - now is he two years older & coming to a new league. Could still be a punt worth taking at £5.5m but that is a scary stat!

Might be too early to jump on United defence but Dalot is one who has really caught my eye.

Playing as an inverted full back & constantly getting in the box. Don't think AWB displaces him in this set up. Could make a mockery of his £4.5 price tag if United get their act together

Ramsdale is being criminally overlooked:

*Less than 10% ownership
*Really strong pre-season for Arsenal
*New signings
*Top six team
*Great fixtures
*Save potential
*Accumulates bonus faster than Arsenal defenders
*Better points per game than Mendy last season

Only Allison/Ederson/Lloris had a better FPL points per game than Raya last season. Likely to be a bargain as a result of missing games through injury & not ending up as high in the standings as he should have been. With a good fixture run to begin with, he's the £4.5 GK to own!

Strong rumors of Kasper Schmeichel leaving Leicester. His substitute Danny Ward is £4m - watch this space!

I fail to understand the selection of Meslier in some of the squads that I see.

Despite being top for saves last season, he averaged less than 3 FPL points per game - 22 other keepers fared better! Leeds were 19th for xG conceded & have now lost Kalvin Phillips.

Baffling!

Brentford don't face any of the last season's top 4 from GW 1-12. All 3 big six games they have in his spell are also at home. Raya at £4.5m looks the standout GK in that price range

Plenty worried about Raya with Strakosha signing for Brentford. Here's a comment from the Brentford fan forums:

"Great backup signing. He will easily be first choice whenever Raya leaves next season."

The concensus is that Raya is too good not to be their first choice right now

Raya averaged 4 FPL pts per start in 24 starts last season. However, when you take all 38 starts of the Brentford keepers into account, they averaged 3.5 points per start. That was some way off Mendy/Ramsdale/Sa.

Was Raya overperforming because Brentford were playing well?

Raya v Sanchez

21/22

FPL points per 90: 4 v 3.4
Saves per 90: 3.3 v 2.8
Number of save points: 19 in 24 starts v 18 in 37 starts
Mins per Baseline Bonus: 5.4 v 6

Given that fixture difficulty is similar, I prefer Raya any day. Loss of Bissouma is huge too

“New season incoming. I’m coming for everything they said I couldn’t achieve, mark my words.”

Leon Bailey. Think Bailey has walked his way into the Villa starting 11 with him form.

Gerrard on Bailey:

"He made more than an impact. He showed energy, speed & a hunger to cause problems. He's come back in pre-season a different player. He is sending a massive signal to me that he wants to be in our 11."

Benrahma 2.0?

Good thing about Mitrovic this season is that Fulham's opening fixtures are tough. Gives us more time to assess where we stand on him. Still think he can be a decent pick at £6.5m at some point

“I’m feeling very good and I think that my levels are rising to be better than I was before. The confidence is there. I know I will do well this season. We have more players up front now, I think the way we are playing shows the connection we have"

Pedro Neto, ladies & gents

Here's a fun stat: Wolves have scored more goals in their six games in pre-season than in their first 21 GWs of 21/22 put together!

Can see there being a big split in the community when it comes to Neto v Bailey before GW1.

Personally prefer Neto - easier to downgrade if I'm wrong. Bailey plays for the more attacking side but just get the feeling he could be one poor performance away from getting dropped

bha MCI wol liv

That is such a rough run for Newcastle from GW2 till GW5. I'm expecting big things from them this season but this automatically rules out Wilson/Trippier/BrunoG at the start for me

If you're picking Trippier in a 4 at the back formation, I'd pick Patterson over Neco as your 5th defender. When Trippier has City & Pool in GW3 & 5, Patterson has Forest & Leeds (Neco has Everton & City). Patterson has been impressive in pre-season, should be nailed to start

We often talk about making team value early in the season.

One of the biggest advantages I see of picking Rashford is that he'll rise in value very quickly if United strong strongly. Their fan base is huge & transfers are at their peak at the beginning of the season

Eriksen is such a good signing for United.

Brentford's attacking numbers improved significantly after he joined - while he was around they were 4th for big chances. Should have a big impact at United!

Have seen people make the amateur mistake of picking Forster in their squads. Wouldn't recommend it at all - there's every chance you want triple Spurs in your first 11 in a few weeks time

Here is my Fantasy5 selection. Neves, Rice, Kane & Jorginho are on penalties which gives them a realistic chance of beating their targets. Martial should start ahead of Ronaldo with his pre-season form which gives him a good chance of beating his Fantasy5 target of 6.5 points.

If you would like to show your support, then follow me on Instagram as well heading into new season for more FPL content! 👇🏻

instagram.com/bigmanbakar

That brings me to the end of my thread. Kindly like and retweet it if you can! Also do share your feedback if possible.

THANK YOU! ❤️