Thread by @JBelcourt73

So yesterday I talked about whataboutisms and the moral authority we enjoy by being able to look at our own past honestly. This is important as today's essay will highlight. First @WarMonitor3 is reporting that Russia has moved an additional 800 pieces of military equipment into

Kherson. If true this squares with my earlier read of history that predicted that Putin will become geographically target locked on the city instead of remaining mentally flexible.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1553857062001590274?s=20&t=MZYNabvhjftZB4a2rT0jTg

He is (likely) fixated on a city because he cannot look at his own past honestly. He sees past success as due to his brilliance rather than (mostly) the result of actions/inactions by other parties and this read is reinforced by the army of yes men he has surrounded himself with.

If he was capable of an honest critique, he would not be shoving more meat into the bag to give the Ukrainians a bigger lunch. Over and over again throughout history, people who were not capable of hearing truth spoken to power and who occupied the space that needed the truth

spoken to them have made similar errors. Hitler at Stalingrad, Napoleon III at Sedan. @SpencerGuard or @JaysonGeroux would be the go too's to ask, but running off the top of my head, once an army shows an ability to encircle a city, successful defense becomes nearly impossible.

Unless there is a successful effort to relieve the city it is going is most likely going to fall. Outcomes like Jellalabad where the defenders managed to break the siege themselves, or Leningrad where the Germans and Finns never really encircled the city tight enough standout

because they are so rare. So that's my prediction, Putin is target locked and not able to comprehend what is actually happening and about to happen in Ukraine. Sadly, even a dictator like Putin only does so much. There are a lot of Russians who do see what is coming and in their

spaces they are going to do everything they can to shape the battlespace too Russia's favor. It is obvious now that the combination of Ukrainian valor and western kit is going to lead to a bumper crop of sunflowers. The Russians who see what is coming know this and is why they

missile cities to try and break Ukrainian will and push disinformation so hard in the west to weaken western support. I don't think the missiles will work, and the dis-info won't work if we don't stop. @TomMostlyZen linked to an article by @kamilkazani about how Russians likely

see the power dynamics. The apologist they use definitely seem to be using a "cock" narrative that presumes that Russia is big and scary and so we should show our belly before we get hurt.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498692916511924232

This has been more or less the play of media elites and politicians for years. Yet for us, that day has passed. Increasingly, the little people control the narrative at least on English speaking Twitter. The Russians and their quislings cannot speak without #WeAreNAFO showing up

enmasse. They block us as fast as they can, but they are missing the point. They are not our audience; our audience is the audience they are trying to reach. Whatever group they target for dis-info becomes our target for fact based counters while we troll the Russians. If they

respond they lose face and control of the debate. If they don't (and many of them wont) they look like chickens who cannot "reasonably" defend their POV. Its working, Yesterday @benjaminwittes was in DC to troll the Russian embassy with sunflowers. It went about as expected

A Russian official kicked flowers laid by a pair of little girls and did it while the cameras were rolling. If little girls can cause you to lose your shit on camera well your shit was already lost.

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1553802007819042818?s=20&t=7sScyvPBBrhPpdQAezPi5w

The narrative insurgency is having an impact on more than just Russian embassy staff though. Western support has not dried up, the calls for ATACM's are getting increasingly loud, even stolid Germany may be starting to shake loose more kit. This is the impact that people like us

can have by making our desires known to people like @JohnBoozman @SenTomCotton @RepFrenchHill but just as importantly as what we are doing to reach them, don't forget to reach out to others in your spaces so they can become convinced to join the cause of justice. A good way to

do this is to promote Ukrainian voices. You can frequently hear them and the passion they have for Ukraine in spaces like @MriyaReport Oh BTW, that space has spies that use it to find #fellas for mass blocking. That should tell you everything you need to know about how much

of an impact we are having in the battle of narrative. Well narrative plus driving donations to @MriyaAid that physically help Ukraine in the actual battle for territory. The screenshots I saw where they were hunting fells was captured during the visit by @georgian_legion which

means the Russian trolls knew the audience and attendance by fellas would be huge. Like I said, some Russians are paying attention but doing so to serve evil. We have Russia back footed now, and we need to keep up the pressure until their resolve breaks and they go home and

Ukraine wins on Ukraine's terms. Slava Ukraini! #GenocideOfUkrainians #russiaisaterrorisstate #genocide #UkraineWar #ukraineinvasion @mfa_russia <--- still losing