1/ $UBER with a strong report, finally seeing meaningful profitability (and importantly FCF). GBV +33%, EBITDA $364m (4.5% rev margin, 1.3% GBV margin) $382m of FCF, and reaffirm long term ability to hit $5B of EBITDA (with $4B+ of FCF) in 2024
2/ Driver supply has improved, wait times down, % of trips surged also down (and both trending towards pre-covid levels). Doing this while avg driver earning well >$30/hr in the US. This is a sustainably profitable business now.
3/ Delivery business in transition from hyper-growth -> profitability and digesting the "covid bump". $UBER US delivery +21% in Q2 (and active couriers +53% Y/Y playing catch up). Helps that they're seeing a rationalization of the competitive environment. (#RIP 15min delivery)
4/ Metrics on UberOne are big and growing, 10m members (8% of MAPCs) generating 23% of GBV. Spend 2.7x more than non-members. Focus so far has been on delivery w/ mobility benefits coming.
5/ Re: macro they haven't seen any discernable trends based on income level or inflation. The impacts they do see are from covid or covid/WFH mindset (Japan, west coast US). @dhkos said this is the strongest he has felt on the competitive environment for $UBER since he joined.
6/ In conclusion, $UBER is seeing 1) continued strong growth (>30%) 2) rapidly expanding margins (on delivery and mobility) 3) material FCF generation 4) network effects across the business
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1/ $ABNB printed a beat for Q2. GBV +27% Y/Y, EBITDA of $711m (33.8% margin) and announces a $2bn repurchase authorization but the stock is down 9% AH on a "weak" Q3 guide.
2/ Q3 guide for revs of $2.78-2.88B but what really matters is GBV. Experiences booked guidance of "stable w/ Q2" aka ~25% and ADRs "slightly higher" Y/Y implies GBV approx +27% in Q3 vs street +34% so a miss vs expectations.
3/ Not a lot of room for a miss with an expensive stock. $ABNB is an A+ company but entered earnings at 25x 2023 EV/EBITDA and a 3.6% FCF Yield. Fair value depends on what you think 2023+ will look like for growth and what steady state margins are.
1/ Profitability, FCF, and Margins matter. $LYFT clearly living in 2021 where management thinks growth at the expense of profitability is important. $UBER will see sequentially growing margins, FCF, and profitability throughout 2022.
2/ Network effects matter. $UBER US/Canada Q1 drivers +79% Y/Y (and new drivers +121% in Apr) vs $LYFT +40% in Q1. @dkhos emphasized the earning power and flexibility drivers have with logging onto @Uber and choosing mobility vs delivery.
3/ $UBER driver onboarding focused on reducing friction and time from sign-up to driving (@dkhos emphasized high earning power of drivers and high retention once onboarded). $LYFT approach seems to be broader incentive based.
1/ Incredibly impressed with what @DavidBaszucki & the team at $RBLX presented at their investor day today. The pace of development on the platform is absolutely mind blowing. Some of the things they're working on:
2/ Better engine/tech/tools to help create content for older users @mbronstein
3/ An updated avatar system with full UGC capability, layered clothing, AI reactive movement, and dynamic heads
1/ The $AMZN Luna launch has the potential to be big, especially if they can drive user acquisition through Twitch integration. More likely Luna is a loser in cloud gaming like Stadia because content is king
2/ The winner that combines cloud gaming and content is xCloud/Game Pass. Luna and Stadia have no competitive advantage versus xCloud when content is the most important component to drive users.