June 2022 #JOLTS data is out. Job openings fell sharply, now four months of declines, and yet, job openings are still higher than a year ago and significantly higher than pre-pandemic. Hires and separation rates both ticked down slightly while quits and layoffs were unchanged.
Slight correction. Job openings are down each month since March's series high. That's three months in a row of declines. Please pardon the error in counting months when it's now August and the data are for June.
Mild reductions in hires, layoffs, and quits levels reported in June as the hires rate ticks down slightly and layoffs and quits rates hold steady. Layoffs continue to be low in historical terms and high levels of quits signal workers seeking (and finding) better opportunities.
Hiring continues to outpace quits in every major sector as workers seek and find new jobs. Churn remains highest in low-wage accommodation and food services. Wage growth in that sector suggests workers are finding better jobs when they quit.
The hires rate in accommodation and food services ticked up for two months in a row even as the quits rate remains the highest across all sectors. Every month, workers continue to quit their jobs and find new and likely better opportunities within accommodation and food services.
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Today's #JobsReport shows a continuing healthy recovery from the pandemic recession as payroll employment came in at 428,00 jobs added. The unemployment rate held steady though the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio ticked down. bls.gov/news.release/p…
While the share of the population with a job ticked down slightly in April, it has been trending strongly in the right direction for months. I'm optimistic this will simply be a blip on the way to a full recovery in EPOPs by the end of 2022.
While overall unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%, today's report shows some promise for Black unemployment which has just ticked down below 6.0% for the first time in this recovery.
White unemployment remains far below Black unemployment ever.
On Jobs Day tomorrow, I'll be watching employment growth, rising labor force participation, and wage growth. Wage growth has stopped rising and might actually be showing signs of slowing in the last two quarters. epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
The large compositional effects of the pandemic on wage growth are now largely behind us. Wage growth continues to be slower than inflation, and there’s no real sign of that changing anytime soon. So far, wage growth continues to dampen price growth rather than feed it.
Given fiscal investments at the scale of the problem over the last two years and the resulting trends in payroll employment growth and labor force participation, the labor market is on track for a historically fast and full recovery by the end of 2022.
The phrase "little changed" appears 12 times in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January 2022 (bls.gov/news.release/p…).
Job openings, hires, and separations were little changed as the quits rate decreased to 2.8% in January.
The hires rate remains higher than the quits rate in every major industry. This indicates that when workers quit, they are taking other jobs-likely in the same sector-not dropping out of the labor force altogether.
High quits are decidedly not translating into workers leaving the labor force in large numbers. In fact, according to the latest jobs data for February, we are seeing a steady return of workers back to the labor market (many of whom are getting jobs).
Today's jobs report shows a strong 678,000 jobs added in February 2022 with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8% as participation rises. Two years since the pre-pandemic business cycle peak, the labor market continues its strong and speedy recovery. bls.gov/news.release/p…
This month, the household survey and the establishment survey tell a very consistent story of a continuing strong recovery. Both show significant gains in employment and the unemployment rate is falling for the "right" reasons as more workers return to the labor market.
Private-sector employment is now only 1% away from pre-pandemic levels. This figure says it all. Unlike in the aftermath of the Great Recession, policymakers provided relief at the scale of the problem and did what was needed to spur a strong recovery this time around.
Jobs openings ticked down in November, while hires were little changed. Quits continued to be high, hitting a new series high in November, notably increasing in accommodation and food services. #JOLTS bls.gov/news.release/p…
Job openings fell between October and November 2021 by over a half million (-529k) to 10.6 million. The job openings rate fell to 6.6%, the lowest it's been since June (but still historically high). The largest decrease in openings was in accommodation and food services (-261k).
Hires increased in November to 6.7 million, the hires rate ticked up as well. Quits also ticked up to 4.5 million in November. The net is more workers taking jobs. @hshierholz provides a useful thread here on those numbers:
Today's jobs report tells two different stories of the November labor market:
-payroll survey is notably weaker, showing an economy that added only 210,000 jobs in November
-household survey saw 1.1 million job gains, a drop in the unemployment rate and increase in participation
Even with the weaker than expected November payroll numbers, job growth so far has already topped 6.1 million for 2021. As long as Nov is a blip, the 2021 average rate of 555,000 per month still means we are on track for a full recovery by the end of 2022. epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
Today's jobs report is a puzzle given the vastly different story told by the 2 surveys but I tend to lean more heavily on the payroll survey b/c of less volatility. My first EPI pub provides rationale: epi.org/publication/br….