Polls have closed in Missouri and most of Kansas and Michigan for a huge election night. We'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
While we wait for our first results, check out our preview of what to watch here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
We've also put together our cheat-sheet of the night's big races, which we'll be updating as contests are called docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Probably the most-watched race of the night will be to amend the Kansas state constitution. A yes vote would let legislature ban abortion, a no would protect abortion rights.
We'll be keeping a close eye on GOP primaries for #MIGOV, where Trump just endorsed Tudor Dixon, and #MOSEN with ... ERIC.
Later in the night we'll be watching if Trump's picks win big GOP primaries for #AZSEN, #AZGOV, #AZAG, and #AZSOS. The latter three offices are involved in certifying election results, and Trump is all-in for Big Liars.
At least one House member will lose renomination tonight in battle between Dem Reps. Andy Levin and Haley Stevens. More are in for tough contests.
We're getting our first few thousand votes for #MOSEN. We always wait until 10% of AP's estimated vote is in before reporting out results so we don't overanalyze tiny piles of votes where small additions can cause wild swings.
We would still caution, though, that the AP estimate is an imprecise science, at best. We'll be on the lookout for any estimates that seem much too large or too small.
Three pro-impeachment Republicans are on the ballot tonight. The top-two primary could help #WA03 Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler and #WA04 Rep. Dan Newhouse, but Peter Meijer has a straight-up GOP primary in #MI03
27% of estimated vote in #MI11 Dem primary, Rep. Andy Levin leads fellow incumbent Haley Stevens 59-41. Stevens and her allies massively outspent Levin's side, and she represents 45% of new seat to his 25%.
AP now estimates 37% of #MI11 Dem vote in, Levin maintains 59-41 lead.
The AP appears to have the #MI11 results BACKWARDS. Oakland County, which makes up entire seat, has Stevens up 59-41 with 43,000 votes in results.enr.clarityelections.com/MI/Oakland/115…
The AP has fixed its glitch, confirms STEVENS leads Levin 59-41 with 41% of estimated vote in. Stevens and her allies massively outspent Levin's side, and she represents 45% of new seat to his 25%.
These types of AP reporting glitches have happened for YEARS. In 2014 primary for #PA18 AP briefly reversed Dem primary results and showed Rep. Mike Doyle losing to no-name challenger by something like 85-15; it was VERY obvious something was up at the time.
Stevens is doing well in the parts of #MI11 from her old district while Levin is doing well in the parts from his old district. However, Stevens is also winning the parts new to both.
10% of estimated vote in for #MI12 Dem primary, Rep. Rashida Tlaib leads Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey 57-25. A new group called Urban Empowerment Action PAC made big splash by spending big against Tlaib, but no obvious signs she was in trouble.
12% reporting in Kansas, and NO side (keep legislature from banning abortion) up 69-31. No is ahead in several red counties, but mostly early vote. Big question is if election day vote is strongly pro-YES.
10% of estimated vote in for #MIGOV GOP primary, Tudor Dixon up 44-20. She went from second-tier to a frontrunner right after 5 opponents ejected from ballot, and Trump endorsed her in final days as she appeared well ahead.
Kris Kobach starts out with small 38-35 lead over state Sen. Kellie Warren in GOP primary for attorney general with 15% of estimated vote in. Kobach trying to restart career after big losses in 2018 and 2020.
Now at 21% of estimated vote in KS abortion referendum, NO up 66-34. Still need to see full vote from some counties to get a good sense of if anti-abortion YES side underperforming in red areas, or if e-day vote will help it along.
Over in GOP primary to succeed Vicky Hartzler in dark red #MO04, state Sen. Rick Brattin leads cattle farmer Kalena Bruce 28-25 with 17% of estimated vote in. Club for Growth for Brattin, Gov. Mike Parson for Bruce.
state Sen. Rick Brattin, who currently leads in safe red #MO04, launched campaign saying, "(COVID19 election changes) led to the exploitation of it and the capability of the fraudulent voting," and, "I do believe that Trump did win the election." dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
We have a lead change in #MO04 R primary. With 22% of estimated vote in, former Kansas City TV anchor Mark Alford leads state Sen. Rick Brattin 27.3-26.9, cattle farmer Kalena Bruce at 23%.
Former TV anchor Mark Alford, the current #MO04 leader, said he mulled running for office but felt for years he was more useful to conservatives on TV. dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
11% of estimated GOP primary vote in for #MOSEN, Attorney General Eric Schmitt leads Rep. Vicky Hartzler 42-27. Trump's other Eric, former Gov. Greitens, at 19%.
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