Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #VAGOV

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NEW (and a first) from me @PirateWires

We're seeing China is treating us as the next country in its global Belt and Road

Learn what #NDAL @RepArmstrongND, #FL06 @michaelgwaltz, #VAGOV @GlennYoungkin, #MI05 @RepWalberg are more are doing about it…

First, here's @micsolana's take on the CCP's strategic investments in America:

"A uniquely strong tradition of individual liberty — instantiated in everything from free speech to free association — has always been America’s greatest strength...…

...But in conflict with an authoritarian country, liberty also presents a significant surface area for attack. For example, in the case of risk from China, our relatively free market has enabled a hostile, authoritarian foreign power...…

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Thank you defeatists Never Trumpers for whining all month how no-chance @HerschelWalker has in the runoff which helped depress GOP vote.

Thank you!

Go ahead. Let me read your latest Blame-Trump Thread/Article.

(Walker is a rubber stamp for @LeaderMcConnell so whatever).
For an OMG-BAD candidate, Walker held his own.

In 2018, Abrams lost to Kemp by 1.4 points. She was held up as a good candidate and ran again in 2022.

Walker lost to an incumbent Senator by only 0.9 points in November, and it is quite close in the runoff (despite defeatist NTs).
A reminder to @EWErickson et al that in early 2020, Kemp appointed Loeffler as Senator as the Establishment's choice to the seat now held by Warnock.

"McConnell backs Georgia governor’s pick for Senate amid Trump skepticism." - Politico 12/3/09.

Go ahead. Blame Trump!
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During this last year, I’ve had several on this site ask me for political book recommendations.

I said I’d put together a thread by the end of the year, so as promised, here are some books I’ve read (or gotten decently into) in 2021.

I’ll say it’s sort of heavy on biography.
Tuesday Night Massacre by @TheJohnsonPost

Focuses on four key Senate races in 1980; really gives you a sense of where the modern congressional campaign came from.…
When Hell Froze Over by @DwayneYancey

Looks at Doug Wilder’s historic statewide runs in 1985 and 1989. With the #VAGov race this year, I wanted to read it — it’s still very relevant to VA politics.…
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"After Virginia Votes" #VAGOV postmortem with Will Ritter, media strategist for Glenn Youngkin's campaign, and Michael Halle, senior adviser to Terry McAuliffe's campaign:
Halle (D): "What we did not anticipate was the level of turnout on election day and that early voting would make up less than 35% of the overall vote. As the early vote and vote by mail surged at the end, we were expecting it was going to make up a larger proportion." 2/x
Halle: "What certainly I think we didn't expect was that some of the more Republican areas would be performing at near 2020 levels."
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The Charlottesville metro area -- home to the @Center4Politics -- voted about 8 points less Dem this year than in 2017 (D+24 to D+16). McAuliffe also netted about 4K fewer votes out of the area than Northam, though he did gain in higher-growth parts of Albemarle County. #VAGov
T-Mac gained votes north of Cville, off of Route 29 -- just from driving through there routinely, I've noticed a lot of new development. The blue precincts on the third map also follow I-64 to the western part of the county, where the Crozet area is seeing something similar.
Not the best labeling, but reminded me how in the 2017 Dem primary, Perriello's strength (gold) in NOVA followed the major highways (50, 66). Guessing he did relatively well w/ the younger, transient demo (basically me at the time, as I was in Loudoun County) that commutes to DC.
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Found on the #WhiteWomen hashtag feed.

It's common for a far right account like @libsoftiktok to:

1. Deny they're far right
2. Conflate "woke" with "racist" and
3. Completely misunderstand the outcome of the VA Gov race.

My thoughts on why, follow.
IMO (as a political scientist and longtime observer of US politics) there are multiple reasons why Youngkin won #VAgov over McAuliffe.

First, no VA governor has won a second term in generations.

And elections soon after the WH changes hands almost always go to the oppo party.
I firmly believe that the VA outcome was based largely on local, idiosyncratic reasons, not a national trend.

Accordingly, fellow pro-democracy folk need not be sad today. Nothing has changed.

But it's good that more are waking up to the five alarm emergency the US is in rn.
Read 20 tweets
Since I’m in a really bad mood and sick of the @vademocrats and the way they run things I’ll write a little story.
For years I’ve canvasses thousands of doors, texted, called, all of it. This has been the WORST coordinated campaign.
First, they pushed TMac down our throats when they had much better non-white, non-male choices. Then he ran his campaign like some celebrity that treated the little people like shit.
That’s what I heard anyway, but wouldn’t know because no one from his campaign, or Herring’s, or Ayala’s showed their face in Yorktown or Poquoson one single time.
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.@GlennYoungkin opens his victory speech: "Alrighty, Virginia, we won this thing. How much fun, how much fun...Let me thank Suzanne...I have said many many times, that the Lord knew what he was doing b/c I need her a lot more than she needs me." #VAgov
.@GlennYoungkin: "My fellow Virginians. We stand this defining moment...Dreams and hopes for a Virginia that soars, a Virginia that never settles, a Virginia where the Virginia promise comes alive for everyone...We will change what the trajectory of this commonwealth."
.@GlennYoungkin: "We will embrace our parents, not ignore them...We are going to press forward w/the curriculum that includes listening to parents and allows our children to run as fast as they can, teaching them how to think, enabling their dreams to soar" #VAgov
Read 7 tweets
Breaking: Republican Glenn Youngkin has won the race for governor in Virginia, riding a wave of late momentum to deliver a rebuke of Democratic control in Richmond and Washington
Here's how the #VAgov race looked with 95% of the expected vote in.

Check the latest live numbers ➡️
The margin reflects major gains for Youngkin and his party across Virginia and in other states as well.

In New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is locked in an unexpectedly tight race with Republican Jack Ciattarelli.…
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“Is this Terry McAuliffe’s last hurrah” was first of three columns on #VAGov.… The second was: “How Glenn Youngkin could become the education governor we need.”… 1
The third and final assessment on the race appeared Monday: Count on Democrats to ignore the lessons of a You gain win.”… The decisive moment in Glenn Youngkin saw the State Superintendent announced no accelerated moth classes prior to Grade 11. 2
Youngkin denounced dumbing down Virginia, and quickly immersed himself in the collateral damage of mask mandate for primary grades, of shut-downs and quarantines. One clear policy for the Commonwealth. What a relief. He can prep that state for competition for business. 3
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🧵PRO-LIFE VICTORY IN VIRGINIA: @GlennYoungkin defeats abortion extremist Terry McAuliffe in 2022 bellwether race

Our statement:… 1/

#SBAListEndorsed #VirginiaElection #VAGovernor #VAGOV Image
McAuliffe spent millions on pro-abortion ads, arguably making abortion the central issue in his campaign, but his strategy failed spectacularly

When pro-life Republicans go on offense to expose Democrats’ abortion extremism, they win

This was due in part to @GlennYoungkin punching back in his own TV ad and in the debates, defining McAuliffe as the real extremist for supporting painful late-term abortions

Read 8 tweets
If Terry McAuliffe goes down in #VAgov election tonight, it shows:

🟧 Trump weakens the GOP. In 2020, Trump lost VA by 10 points. Youngkin publicly (though not privately) avoided Trump.
🟧 Corporate centrism is a loser for Dems, esp w/a GOPer who brands as non-Trumpy
One of the big things to keep an eye on will be turnout in #VAGovernor race. It may come down to a base vs. base race. GOP "critical race" obsession was about firing up its reactionary voters while puzzling everyone else. But McAuliffe played into that w/parent education comment.
We'll see what the final totals are, but here are some stats on the two-party VA topline votes:
2013 (D gov win): 2.08 million
2016 (D prez win): 3.75 million
2017 (D gov win): 2.58 million
2020 (D prez win): 4.38 million
2021 (?): 3.16 million (estimate)
Read 15 tweets
Looks like @Thorongil16 and I will end up on the wrong side of #VAGov predictions.

We took a shot, tried to be transparent about what we did, and ended up giving Youngkin a 33% chance of victory. Those things happen 1/3 of the time. Forecasting and modeling is hard.
Some success for the model: as @Thorongil16 said, we did appear to catch the fact that there would be significantly more college-educated voters in this electorate than in 2020, and modeled the electorate decently well. Where we missed was in margins among demographics.
I don't feel bad for saying polls like Fox were bad. The electorates illustrated by those never materialized. We always said Youngkin's path to victory would consist of flipping a ton of Biden voters, including white suburbanites. And that's what he managed to do.
Read 8 tweets
Polls have closed in #VAGOV as well as for more contests, and we'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here…
28,000 votes counted for Dem primary in safely blue #FL20, Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness leads self-funder Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick 28-21
Getting our first 9,000 votes in #VAGOV. Remember: Friends don't let friends overanalyze tiny vote totals.
Read 11 tweets
Half of the votes cast in the 2020 Presidential Election in VA were cast in 12 of the state’s 133 counties and county equivalents:

Fairfax County (13.47% of VA votes)
Prince William County (5.11%)
Virginia Beach (5.10%)
Loudoun County (5.04%)
Chesterfield County (4.57%)
Henrico County (4.11%)
Arlington County (2.93%)
Chesapeake (2.85%)
Richmond (2.49%)
Norfolk (2.02%)
Alexandria (1.85%)
Newport News (1.82%)
All of these went blue in the 2020 Presidential Election.

All of these except for Chesapeake, Chesterfield and Virginia Beach went blue in the last four Presidential Elections.

Chesterfield and Virginia Beach went red 2008-2016 then flipped blue in 2020.
Read 4 tweets
As strong as turnout has been in blue areas, red areas looking even higher. Rockingham Co. (Trump +40) now up to 116% of its '17 turnout, w/ three hours left to go. By comparison, Charlottesville (Biden +73) is at only 89% of its '17 turnout.
To be clear, Charlottesville is not representative of all blue areas. For example, Falls Church (Biden +64) was at 102% of its '17 total at 4pm.

But as expected, Rs are seeing a big enthusiasm surge vs. '17. Whether it's enough for Youngkin, we'll see. #VAGOV
Another few big blue localities w/ 4pm turnout reports. Fairfax County now up to 96% of its '17 totals, Alexandria City up to 95%. That's robust turnout in suburban Dem strongholds, but not as big a surge vs. '17 as we're seeing in rural red localities.
Read 3 tweets
To win #VAGov, Glenn Youngkin will need to flip a lot of Biden voters -- and, most likely, a lot of college-educated white Biden voters.

Is he getting that? I don't think so, but I could be wrong. But this isn't going to be a race that Democrats lose on turnout.
This is all the early vote tells us, and this is the only EV analysis I'll do. I don't think rain matters, I don't think you can do precinct regressions on EV turnout in Arlington and have that mean much right now, and I do not think we'll get much more info than this before 7 PM
This is basically the best way to sum up EV analysis. It doesn't mean a whole ton except practically ruling out a lot of fringe scenarios that we were already somewhat skeptical of (like the Fox poll). Just wait till 7 PM and we'll know way more.
Read 3 tweets
Some context for the debate over why education became such a big issue in #VAgov: school closures in the state were among the most extended in the country, partly because the state gov't offered far less guidance than others (e.g. WV & OH) that set clear thresholds for reopening.
As a result of the state offering so little guidance, districts were left to own devices and many defaulted toward extreme caution, even though Virginia was blessedly less affected by virus than many other states. So there were lots of headlines like this:…
The NoVa disenrollment numbers in this @zachdcarter piece are eye-opening. You didn't necessarily need to rely on polling to detect the rising frustration and anger among parents.…
Read 4 tweets

What do these states all have in common?

They are all competitive, highly diverse states which have GOP Governors and GOP legislatures which have MADE IT HARDER FOR CITIZENS TO VOTE.
In fact, I can’t think of a single state which is competitive, has a large black or latino population and in which the GOP controls the Governorship and the State Legislature which HASN’T enacted new #VoterSuppression laws this year.

Point out any that I missed.
Read 15 tweets
[THREAD] so I’ve been inundated with texts and DMs about “morality” today from voters across the Commonwealth.

I’ve never said this publicly, but it’s important to say today.
In 2000, I was 12 years old sitting in a Black church. The pastor said, “I’m not telling y’all who to vote for, but let your morals lead you when you’re in that booth.”

The moral issues of 2000 were Clinton’s sex scandals and stem cell research.
I’m sure my experience in 2000 wasn’t an anomaly in Black churches.

With all due respect, we’ve had some nostalgia for George W. Bush after Trump, but his Presidency was historically bad for Black and Brown people.
Read 8 tweets

At the end of a long campaign, here's where the model made by me and @Thorongil16 stands. The race is rated as Lean Democratic, with a forecasted margin of D+3.6 and a win probability of 67%. An interactive map is over at
The consensus on this race is all over the place, and we've seen polls in the last week ranging from D+3 to R+8. Absolutely nobody can agree on what an electorate looks like or who's voting. What we all can agree on is that Democrats have a large early vote (EV) lead...
But even then, nobody knows exactly how big, and the margin here matters. We know via L2 that the EV electorate is roughly 2:1 Biden, but the crossover vote matters here. If it knocks EV down to D+19, Youngkin's probably favored. D+27 and it's likely McAuliffe's race to lose.
Read 9 tweets
Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city.
There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV
Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV
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Good morning and happy Election Day to all! I’m so so excited to share all of @thisisinsider’s 2021 election coverage with live, up-to-the-minute results from our partners at @DecisionDeskHQ, starting tonight! Follow along this thread & feel free to bookmark for later 🗳️🇺🇸
First up, everyone’s favorite, the big race for #VAgov between @terrymcauliffe and @glennyoungkin! This one is shaping up to be a real nail-biter: polls in VA close at 7 pm, and we should hopefully get some interesting results tonight…
Less-discussed about also fascinating is the Virginia Lt. Gov race between @HalaAyala and @WinsomeSears, who have been running on very difficult platforms & visions for VA — either candidate will also be the first woman of color elected statewide…
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Dear Crazy conspiracy, anti-vax & #MAGA people, the device you’re reading this on contains GPS technology, digital cookies, and Facebook API connections, so that you can be tracked at all times.

Read the Terms & Conditions to see how this ends.

Signed George Soros
We are screaming towards a total ban on women’s reproductive rights, The Handmaid’s Tale, and Salem witch trials. Please please exercise your right to vote today. Our Democracy is in hanging in the balance #VAgov #ElectionDay Image
Sadly this isnt even the craziest thing this White House correspondent has tweeted in the past few yrs
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