Thread by @vtchakarova

Repositioning the global supply chains away from China is already becoming a reality following the COVID-19, and the Indo-Pacific region is about to become a forefront of this geoeconomic reconfiguration, due to the withdrawal of American & international capital from Beijing. 1/

Major geoeconomic opportunities and challenges will appear following the diversification of the global supply chains. A global disruption of supply chains is coupled with the imperilled rules-based global order caused by eroding international structures. 2/

The reconfiguration will be initiated by the US to bring manufacturing and supply chains back home or to branch out to American allies and partners from the Anglosphere of influence such as UK, Australia, Japan, and increasingly India. 3/

Moving production from traditional hubs to new ones will take time and will require trust building, but will also create new geoeconomic advantages. Regional centres of trade power, such as Japan & EU, already began considering a shift of manufacturing operations out of China. 4/

Sectors such as space technologies, AI, defence, & cyber can expect strategic investments to promote the growth of new, regional power centres. This is important since any significant breakthrough in these areas will bestow global competitiveness and geoeconomic advantages. 5/

Further, the unprecedented interconnectedness of all socio-economic systems and their networks has obfuscated the distinction between economic and trade indicators, on one hand, and defence and security considerations on the other. 6/

This explains why the competition between the US and China does not solely represent a trade war, but a broader rivalry extending to the global networks of finance, trade, economy, diplomacy, energy, defence and so forth. 7/

The Indo-Pacific region will become a major battlefield for any progress regarding the Fourth Industrial Revolution in the upcoming decade. Over the long term, there is a likely scenario of two parallel supply chains networks, one set up by US, the other with access to China. 8/

These are parts of my geopolitical analysis on the #IndoPacific decade from July 2020 for @orfonline orfonline.org/expert-speak/c…

The Chips and Science Act includes more than $52 billion for US companies producing computer chips & billions more in tax credits to encourage investment in chip manufacturing, & will be signed into law. It's happening in the geopolitical context of global supply reconfiguration.