A consequential day in Washington: Trump met Zelenskyy, then brought in key European leaders (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Finland, EU, NATO). Aim: outline a path to end the war while sketching “NATO-style” security guarantees for Ukraine.
A thread 🧵 While optics were notably more cordial than February, core shift: Trump said a ceasefire is not required to negotiate peace - flipping the usual sequencing (“deal first” vs “pause first”). 2/

Just one day after meeting Putin in Alaska, Trump is inviting European leaders & Zelenskyy to the White House. The signal: no secret U.S.–Russia deal. Europe & Ukraine must be in the room. Here‘s why it matters.
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1/ Key revelation: Trump says Putin accepted that any peace deal would need Western troops in Ukraine to ensure durability, according to four senior officials. That’s a striking shift in the Kremlin’s posture.
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As the first anniversary of Russia's war against Ukraine approaches, I am eager to present a detailed thread 🧵exploring key geopolitical assessments and takeaways. Join me in this critical reflection on the war and its implications for Europe and the world. #Geopolitics 👇 Ukraine faces the difficult choice between war and complete subjugation. Each successful military counteroffensive improves the chance of regaining lost territories and achieving full territorial integrity and sovereignty, as recognized by the international community since 1991.

Ukraine will be able to restore its borders from 1991, when Ukraine gained its independence from Russia, by next year. And this will be a good opportunity to finish the war according to the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.
Thread 🧵 with key takeaways from his interview👇 The theoretical potential usage of nuclear weapons by Russia vs Ukraine is possible. Nobody is observing any preparations for a nuclear strike at Ukraine right now. Ukraine has never produced dirty bomb, had never planned, it's not planning & it's not going to plan such thing./1

US National Security Strategy is out. "PRC presents America’s most consequential geopolitical
challenge. Although the Indo-Pacific is where its outcomes will be most acutely shaped, there are
significant global dimensions to this challenge." #strategy whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl… "Russia poses an immediate and ongoing threat to
the regional security order in Europe and it is a source of disruption and instability globally but it lacks the across the spectrum capabilities of the PRC." p. 11

It's time for a big thread 🧵 about the global triple crisis in fuel, food and fertilizers.
When it started, how it continues, and what lies ahead amid Russia's war on Ukraine in Europe and the growing Sino-American bifurcation of the global system. #realpolitik #geoeconomics Food comes first.
@yaneerbaryam is the complex systems scientist who predicted the Arab Spring by indicating in his research in early 2011 that widespread violence would occur if skyrocketing global food prices (surging Food Price Index) were not reduced. vice.com/en/article/43y…

Against the backdrop of China-Russia meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin, what are the real motives and geopolitical interests of the two leaders and their countries to enter a modus vivendi of systemic coordination?
My thread 🧵on the #DragonBear from #realpolitik perspective. First and foremost, it's about a matter of survival in a highly volatile global system. Russia's political, economic, and financial survival will depend on China amid the country's worst isolation by the West and following the military failures on the battle fields in Ukraine.

Putin claimed that, if Turkey is excluded as an intermediary, almost all grain exported from Ukraine is sent not to developing & poorest countries, but to EU countries. Only 2 out of 87 ships were loaded w/ 60,000t of food out of 2 million tons were transported under UN WFP. 1/ As of 4 September, the total tonnage of grain and other foodstuffs exported from the three Ukrainian ports has been 2,076,280 metric tons. A total of 187 voyages (100 inbound and 87 outbound) have been enabled so far. 2/

Repositioning the global supply chains away from China is already becoming a reality following the COVID-19, and the Indo-Pacific region is about to become a forefront of this geoeconomic reconfiguration, due to the withdrawal of American & international capital from Beijing. 1/ Major geoeconomic opportunities and challenges will appear following the diversification of the global supply chains. A global disruption of supply chains is coupled with the imperilled rules-based global order caused by eroding international structures. 2/

Gazprom's announcement that it cannot guarantee gas supplies due to "extraordinary" circumstances must be seen in the context of ongoing war against 🇺🇦.
🇷🇺 is intensifying attacks "in all operational sectors" of the war, signaling that it’s working toward unilateral ceasefire.1/ This move will help 🇷🇺 consolidate its territorial gains in eastern & southern 🇺🇦, replenish its troops, & freeze military operations until the next phase of the war. In the meantime, Russia is intensifying its commodities war vs Europe by freezing gas supplies through NS1. 2/

Not all realists share #Mearsheimer views on Russia's war against Ukraine. I am positioned in the #realpolitik corner while using #geopolitics and #geoeconomics as the main pillars of #foresight.This is my assessment since Dec 2021 (see pinned tweet) on Russia's plan.
Thread🧵👇 There won't be any peace negotiations no matter how often Germany & France (small-size countries in Europe have no geopolitical weight) call Putin. Once Russia establishes control over Donbas & reaches its war goals in the this phase, Moscow will unilaterally declare ceasefire.

No significant player has any big interest in a prolonged crisis in Kazakhstan right now. Russia will keep „peacekeepers“ on the ground but will make sure to complete the CSTO operation asap. China is getting ready for the Olympics. Turkey tackles a serious currently crisis. ⤵️ US is preparing for the talks with Moscow regarding Ukraine & has no military footprint in Central Asia following the exit from Afghanistan. The EU is irrelevant geopolitical player in Central Asia despite major geoeconomic interests in Kazakhstan. The crisis will be over soon.⤵️

The danger of a military attack by Russia in the direct European neighborhood is permanent and the most recent escalation caused by its drastic troops mobilization will send a strong signal once again that a military attack could be imminent at any time. What’s Russia’s plan? /1 Russia‘s Putin is preparing for the „long game“, that is the systemic rivalry between USA and China. He seeks to upgrade his regional positioning by testing the American reaction (he knows that there won’t be a military involvement by US in Ukraine due to mid-term elections). /2

The greatest risk for Europe, in addition to the increasing political, economic, and social destabilisation of the continent, is the emergence of lines of fragmentation along competing geopolitical interests of the external actors. /1 The divergent
goals of key actors (US, China, Russia, Turkey, etc.) further divide European members & institutions on geopolitical issues. As a result, the 🇪🇺 has less & less room for manoeuvres in increasingly contested areas in its immediate neighbourhood to the South & East./2

An unexpected manifestation of the pandemic is the bifurcation of the global order in a way unseen since the Cold War. It begs the question—is the world witnessing the beginning of a new bipolar era of global competition? A thread 🧵#GlobalSystem #geopolitics #RaisinaFiles In the presence of a hegemon, there is always a process of polarisation that leads to the creation of a secondary system organised around a pole consisting of a single competitor or a group of rivals that seek to undermine the incumbent’s global power supremacy.

I find this recent talk with Peter Thiel at the Nixon Seminar truly fascinating and I read the transcript already three times.
A thread with the most interesting statements I derived from this source follows on Twitter now. I recommend you the whole text nixonseminar.com/2021/04/the-ni… "Tech is politically neutral, but can still be — if crypto is kind of libertarian, AI is kind of communist. China is willing to apply it & turn the entire society into a face recognition surveillance state that is far more intrusive & totalitarian than even Stalinist Russia was."

A few thoughts on #Coronavirus:
1) See how USSR regime handled the first weeks following Chernobyl catastrophe (a lot of information about it on Internet) to understand the reactions of the Communist Government during emergencies. #Coronavirus contagion began in December 2019! 2) The nuclear accident at Chernobyl nuclear power plant was completely classified & the communist regime repeated its deceitful mantra: “Nothing threatens peoples’ health.” The whole emergency was handled with deception, cover-ups & control of narrative nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/…

My recommended read is Principia Politica by @nntaleb. The question is how to look at & discipline politicians through the complex systems perspective (nature, ecosystems, complexity) and thus shape the processes bottom-up reflecting on Fractal Localism. academia.edu/38433249/Princ… We must keep those in power & the bureaucrats constantly in check. Bottom-up. Decentralization. We have to bother them, demand more from them, and make them feel uncomfortable if they don’t keep their political promises or don’t deliver. We have to expose them too when necessary!