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Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
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Aug 4 • 5 tweets • 5 min read
Nice #hyperhype X lethal autonomy from Sandia circa 2019.

I've been arguing publicly that autonomy has some role for hypersonic weapons since around early 2019 as well:)

(Source: osti.gov/biblio/1631217)
More on Sandia Autonomy for Hupersonics program.
autonomy.sandia.gov/missioncampaig…

osti.gov/biblio/1572138
Here are some great slides (with awful design decisions): osti.gov/biblio/1813715
More good stuff here: osti.gov/servlets/purl/…
One can even follow the development of the language and arguments used to promote this A4H thing: osti.gov/biblio/1874672

(Note the part about conventional deterrence;))

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More from @KomissarWhipla

Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Aug 6
The more I see footage of Chinese TELs, the more I think their operational mode is very different from what we are used to in the Russian SRF.

1/
Russian best practices: off-road chassis, patrols deep in the woods, launch from unprepared positions, long caravans of guard, command and support vehicles. And Krona light shelters.

2/
Looks like PLARF focus is on motorways and probably the idea is to leave hardened shelters, tunnels, etc., launch, roll back (reload?..). Given their military and civilian construction and automobile production capabilities, there might be A LOT of decoy shelters and TELs.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Jul 14
#hyperhype
A thread on Zmeyevik, new RU hypersonic weapon reported by TASS earlier this week ().
Looks like it was under development for a while, although there were no tests mentioned or observed, which, does not mean that there were no tests at all.
1/
Making fast AShM is quite traditional for SU and RU school, and the ballistic missile is a good option (also, R-27K SLASBM). Still, given its range and speed one needs a serious ISR and targeting capabilities, and also terminal guidance.

2/
Maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRV) and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) as a subtype of those make sense to be a primary payload type in this case, however there are obvious gaps in Russian ISR capabilities anyway.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Jul 12
New name for the Russian hypersonic weapons geeks: Zmeyevik. According to TASS sources, an anti-ship ballistic missile with HGV payload for the Navy coastal missile units, to strike large surface targets, somewhat like DF-21D or DF-26.

tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…

#hyperhype
Sources claim that the project has been under development for a while already.

"Zmeyevik" is a kind of serpentinite rock, as usual. But also this thing often found in bathrooms. And in moonshine makers:) ImageImageImage
On a sad note, nothing new about targeting for such weapons. Also traditionally.
Read 4 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Jul 1
NASAMS air defense system might arrive in Ukraine. I've made a short comment to Vedomosti earlier this week (vedomosti.ru/politics/artic…), so in case someone might be interested, here are my thoughts:
A pretty serious weapon, bu better wait for information about the specific type.
1/
There were several generations, and, given other supplies for Ukraine from the West, it is eqully possible that the delivered one would be something mothballed from storage or, on the contrary, a sparkling latest modification fresh from the assembly line.

2/
The second variable is quantity - giventhe area of ​​Ukraine and the length of the "front", as well as Russia's strikes to the full depth, apparently, we will see some point defenses only, e.g. around "decision-making centers" or storage bases for Western weaponry.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Jun 25
Lukashenko [wrongly] accuses NATO of flying aircraft with nukes near BY borders and asks for mirror actions.
Putin politely declines, mentions 200 tactical nukes with 257 certified aircraft in six NATO countries, promises deliveries of Iskander-M "in the nearest months".
It's getting curiosier and curiosier.

Putin mentions that Iskander-M is dual-capable and can launch both cruise and ballistic missiles...but also that BY Su-25s (!) can be "retrofitted accordingly" and their pilots can trained in RU.

t.me/dimsmirnov175/…
Turns out Lukashenko was using the right words for his concerns on NATO and nukes: "training flights of the nuclear-capable aircraft". But he indeed asked for retrofitting BY aircraft for nuclear missions...

t.me/dimsmirnov175/…
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Feb 18
Strategic deterrence forces exercis (Grom-2022?) tomorrow. Ballistic and cruise missile launches announced. Supreme commander-in-chief at the helm.
MoD release via TASS: tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…

Air-Space Forces, Southern MD, Strategic Rocket Forces, Northern Fleet, Black Sea Fleet.
My shopping list/guess for stuff that will be launched:
Kh-55, Kh-101/102, Kinzhal, Kalibr, Tsirkon, Iskander-M of all flavours, Yars (might be mod), Sirena-M.

Sarmat seems unlikely, as well as air/missile defense ops, but could be interesting.
Read 17 tweets

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