Russia is creating an entire class of service-people that would be involved in managing #occupation of Ukraine.
Hundreds of administrators, teachers, doctors and policemen are being sent from across Russia will form a basis of an "outpost state"
Thread 1/7
Over the course of the last couple of months we've seen Presidential Administration of Russia recruit executive and administrators for key governing posts in occupied territories of Ukraine. But it goes beyond that: teachers, doctors, policemen are being offered big $ to
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work in occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts of Ukraine.
The entire process, as well as key personnel appointments are managed by deputy head of PA Sergei Kirienko.
Unlike Crimea, where most posts were taken by the locals, here we're seining only nomads being appointed
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What does it tell us? 1. Kremlin doesn't trust locals to spend billions of rubles on restoring these territories. 2. Most of local staff with experience doesn't wish to work for Russian occupation admin. The ones that do are freaks with littlie to no experience
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3. Appointment of large teams of Russian professionals shows that Russia is planning to absorb those territories ASAP. Even ahead of the "referendums". 4. This is Kirienko's ticket to become prime-minister.
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What motivities Russian professionals to go?
Fast promotion trajectory and much higher salaries. Most of the contracts for teachers, doctors and other civic workers are between 6 months and a year.
It is somewhat Soviet approach but with a few major differences.
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For more details on how Kremlin choses who to appoint for posts in occupied Ukraine and why the model of "outpost state" has been chosen read this new Andrey Pertsev piece for @RiddleRussia 7/7 ridl.io/outpost-state/
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Russian liberals/intelligentsia are constantly clashing with each other on Facebook and elsewhere arguing over western restrictions imposed on Russians, over "should I stay or go" while the rest of the world puzzles at why they don't do more to stop the war
Thread 1/10
It would seem that Russians who for decades opposed Putin are no longer in touch with reality, no longer see what Russia does in Ukraine and are too self-absorbed.
This may be your conclusion from reading a bit of ongoing Facebook discussions.
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Of course, these are not all media active Russians. But one may notice this to be a quite big theme for older generation of Russian public intellectuals, those who lived through the collapse of USSR and death of their Europe dreams in the 2000s.
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Honestly, I have thought that Russian FP thinkers will stop pushing the idea of Greater Eurasia at least for the time being.
Instead, they are just ignoring the war and keeping it going.
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One of Valdai's program director's Yaroslav Lisovolik argues there are multiple ways the Greater Eurasia might be created: 1. First creating the core and then expanding. 2. Via integrations of integrations right away.
In the first case the core is the China - India - Russia
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that should then welcome key partners like Indonesia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia for the sake of economic synergy;
another core alterative is Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
In the second case Lisovolik proposes to unite
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Transcript of Putin's meeting with Duma leaders.
This entire conversation could have been part of Sorokin's book about a decade and a half ago. Pure postmodernist insanity.
Here are a few gems for you from Putin:
Thread 1/8 en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
"We are being told that we started the war in Donbass, in Ukraine. No, war was unleashed by the collective West, which organised and supported the unconstitutional armed coup in Ukraine in 2014, and then encouraged and justified genocide against the people of Donbass".
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"Collective West is direct instigator and culprit of what is happening today.
A war was unleashed, and the sanctions were imposed. Under normal circumstances, it would probably be difficult to accomplish this"
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How can Russian economy survive lack of crucial imports and imports of brands that left Russia? Will we see import-substitution increase or 'parallel imports' boom?
Thread 1/7
One way or another about 90% of all businesses in Russia are dependent on imports.
First attempt to decrease this dependency after 2014 was controversial at best.
In fact most of what is considered "Russian" was just localized - produced in Russia but sill
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using foreign components.
For example, Russia significantly increase share of Russia produced agriculture goods - even to the point of being able to export in abundance but nearly 100% of all crop seeds were imported.
Long story short, talk of import-substitution today
3/
Military situation in Ukraine as seen by Russian pro-war observer and speculation on where Russia might hit next:
-Russia's military advance is satisfactory at best.
Russian forces along with mercenaries and LDNR forces use WWI tactic of artillery strikes and
Thread 1/7
slow infantry advances because there is not enough people for proper advance. 3-5 times less than needed.
It gives Ukraine opportunity to hold on for long, though while retreating Ukraine looses a lot of hardware.
-Russian forces are increasing the speed of advance
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Rubezhnoye battle took 2 months; Severodonetsk -1 month, Lisichansk - a week and a half, he claims.
Now Russian forces face Seversk - Soledar - Artemovsk defense line.
-Where would Russia attack next (after some rest and reinforcement) -
A. North of Donetsk region -
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How Moscow (or some in Moscow) see the logic of the war of attrition in #Ukraine.
Valdai's Andrey Sushentsev here analyses how Moscow sees Ukraine's potential to sustain Russia's advance and why Moscow does not like Zelensky anymore.
Thread 1/9
Sushentsev says Russia will not go back to her previous proposals, as in: recognize Crimea as Russia, recognize sovereignty of DNR and LPR, demilitarize, sign up for military neutrality and kick out those who Russia deems nationalist from the government. That ship has sailed
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and Ukraine will not get such a "great" deal anymore. Now the deal would be based on RU military success.
Sushentsev claims that Europeans are getting tired of the war (plus energy prices & threat of nuclear war) and soon a big fail in Ukraine will force them to compromise
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