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Emil Kastehelmi

Aug 5, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

Ukraina on oman ilmoituksensa mukaan vapauttanut kymmeniä kyliä Hersonin alueella. Myös Suomen mediassa lukua on toisteltu melko tiuhaan. Paljon puhuttu vastahyökkäys ei ole kuitenkaan tosiasiassa edennyt juuri lainkaan.

Eli mikä homma? Ketju Hersonin vastahyökkäyksestä 1/🧵

Viime kuukausien aikana Hersonissa on taisteltu aktiivisesti. Ukraina on hiljalleen vapauttanut kyliä toisensa jälkeen pysäytettyään Venähän hyökkäyksen. Venäjä on työnnetty hitaasti kauemmas Kryvyi Rihistä ja Mykolaivista, ja rintaman keskiosa on vakiintunut Inhulets-joelle 2/

Ukrainalaiset ovat siis vapauttaneet kyliä pitkällä aikavälillä. Ukraina on myös viime viikkoina implikoinut, että uusi, suurempi vastahyökkäys olisi toteutumassa. Villeimmät näkemykset Ukrainasta kertovat, että Herson olisi vapaa syyskuuhun mennessä, eli tämän kuun lopussa. 3/

On kuitenkin huomionarvoista, että tämä mediassa paljon puhuttu vastahyökkäys ei vielä näy vapautettuina kylinä. Ukraina viestii siis käytännössä vanhemmilla saavutuksillaan. Esimerkiksi viimeisen kahden viikon aikana ei todellakaan ole vapautettu kymmeniä kyliä. 4/

Jos Herson halutaan vapauttaa syyskuuhun mennessä, on Ukrainalla äärimmäinen kiire. Venäjä on eri tietojen perusteella linnoittanut asemiaan Hersonin suunnalla, eivätkä ukrainalaiset ole välttämättä kohdanneet edes vielä alueen raskaampia puolustusasemia. 5/

On myös epäselvää, mitä Hersonin vapauttaminen tarkoittaa. Puhutaanko pelkästään Hersonin kaupungista vai koko oblastista, joka jatkuu Krimille saakka? Itse uskon tavoitteen olevan rintaman siirto Dnepr-joelle. Sekin vaatii jo hyvin raskaita taisteluita. 6/

Epäilen myös Ukrainalla olevan sisäisiä haasteita vastahyökkäyksen aloittamisen kanssa. Ukraina onnistui tuhoamaan parin viikon sisällä Dneprin ja Inhulets-joen yli meneviä tärkeitä siltoja. Tämä sekoitti venäläisten logistiikkaa, kun tärkeimmät huoltoyhteydet ottovat osumaa. 7/

Vaikuttaa kuitenkin siltä, että Ukraina ei ole onnistunut kunnolla hyödyntämään tätä sekaannusta. Nyt venäläiset ovat saaneet korjailtua tilannetta - lautat kulkevat jokien yli, ponttoonisiltoja on pystytelty ja siltoja korjailtu. Hersoniin on myös tuotu paljon lisäjoukkoja. 8/

Ukrainalla on siis vastassaan merkittävästi vahvennettu vihollinen, joka pystyy myös vastaamaan huoltoyhteyksien vahingoittamiseen. Jos vastahyökkäys todella lähtee täydellä voimalla käyntiin, siitä ei tule helppoa Ukrainalle. Venäjä ei halua luopua Hersonista. 9/

Sotaa on pian käyty jo puoli vuotta. #OSINT-tiimimme tuottaa edelleen yhtä internetin aktiivisimmista tilannekarttapalveluista. Annan myös yhä mielelläni aiheesta haastatteluja medialle. Yhteystiedot löytyvät profiilista. 10/10
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More from @emilkastehelmi

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Apr 16

One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar.

In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/

Chasiv Yar is an important city. It’s the last somewhat larger built area before the crucial crossroads town of Kostiantynivka and other important cities in Donetsk. Encircling the city is difficult, as the Donets-Donbas canal forms a difficult obstacle for mechanized units. 2/

Ukraine has constructed several layers of trenches and other defensive positions north and south of Chasiv Yar. Even if the Russians managed to cross the canal at some point, they would still need to break through multiple fortified positions to seriously threaten the area. 3/

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Emil Kastehelmi

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Mar 22

Russian Telegram channels are flooding with videos of a terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, a music venue Moscow.

The video material suggests that there were at least four attackers, some sources say five. They were armed with fully automatic AK-type assault rifles. 1/

The building was set on fire during the attack. According to Ria Novosti, a Russian state media, the "fire is getting stronger". This means confirming the amount of dead and injured may take a while. 2/

t.me/rian_ru/237104

It's not known who is behind this, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was Islamic terrorists. Wouldn't be the first time in Russia.

It's interesting to see what will the official explanation for the attack be, who will they blame, and if they try to tie Ukraine to this. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Feb 24

Dark months ahead for Ukraine.

The third year of the Russian full-scale invasion begins, and Ukraine is facing multiple difficulties. There's no room for optimism, as many problems can’t be solved in the coming months.

In this thread: Issues, threats and the future. 1/

While Ukraine was on the offensive in 2023, Russia silently amassed significant forces. Since mid-October, Russians have been attacking on multiple fronts. At the same time, Ukraine faces both external and internal challenges. Let’s start with the Ukrainian problems. 2/

Ukraine experienced unfortunate losses in 2023. The summer offensive was costly, but it didn’t reach any strategic goals. After the summer, the losses were increasingly difficult to fully replace. The military leadership likely saw the incoming problems. 3/

Read 17 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Feb 9

I watched Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin. It exemplifies how a person who thinks too much of himself is put into the position of a useful idiot.

Dictators aren't interested in truth or journalism; those who think otherwise are only deceiving themselves. 1/ 🧵

Carlson's bias is well-known. He has repeatedly criticized Western media and leaned towards the Russian narrative.

Even though there was no critical element involved in the interview, he may have genuinely thought he still could get something valuable out of it. 2/

For me, the expectations were low. Everything Putin said was predictable, as is often the case with dictators. All the talking points have been heard before. The end result was a boring lecture, where Carlson was unable and likely also unwilling to challenge Putin. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Jan 20

Russian operations in the Kupiansk direction have continued with varying intensity for months.

Russian gains have been very limited, but this evening the Russians announced that they have taken the village of Krokhmalne. 1/6

Ukrainians have also reported continuous Russian attacks in the Synkivka area. Despite Russian efforts, they haven't been able to punch through Synkivka, which would be the shortest route to Kupiansk.

There's also no indication of Russians continuing far beyond Krokhmalne. 2/

Krokhmalne, a small village with only a handful of houses, is the first Ukrainian village the Russians have been able to capture anywhere in months.

It's worth noting that they actually re-captured it, as Ukraine liberated the village in autumn 2022 (and took some POWs too). 3/

Read 7 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Jan 15

Ukrainian operations on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river, in the village of Krynky, have been ongoing since October 2023.

In this thread, I'll analyze the current situation and the future of the bridgehead in Krynky.

The thread includes high-resolution satellite images. 1/

A brief timeline of the events in the Dnipro River Delta since the liberation of Kherson. The “river war” has been a long process, often conducted in challenging conditions.

However, it has not generally been discussed as much in the media as some other sectors. 2/

In the village of Krynky, Ukrainian forces have been fighting a difficult battle for a prolonged time. The area controlled by Ukraine is small and natural cover is very limited. There is a forest next to the village, but it seems the Ukrainians have not advanced far into it. 3/

Read 23 tweets

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