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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
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Aug 5 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
Huge jobs report. W/revisions more than 550,000. It's a boom not a recession.

Here's our monthly economic thread:

16 yrs Clinton Obama = 33.8m jobs
18 months Biden = 9.6m jobs
16 yrs Bushes Trump = 1.9m jobs

5 times as many Biden jobs as last 3 GOPers COMBINED. 5x. 1/
Economy has grown 3 times faster under Biden than under Trump. 2/
Unemployment rate now lowest it has been in over 50 years, and is the lowest in a peacetime economy in the post WWII era. 3/

Uninsured rate now lowest in American history. 4/

New businesses continued to be created at historically high rates. This remains one of the most important economic stats of the #BidenBoom. Speaks to incredible health, vitality of the US economy. 5/
Of the 45m jobs created since 1989 43m - 96% have been created under Democratic Presidents.

Last 3 GOP brought recessions, spiraling deficits. They called this "recession" wrong.

Rs have NO standing to be criticizing Biden's strong econ performance. 6/
Jobs being created at 50x the rate of the last 3 GOP Presidents combined.

Note GOP job creation rate was 9,700 per month over 16 years. This month the US economy created 50 months worth of GOP level job growth.

And yet MAGA screams. 7/
Biden is the 3rd straight Dem President to take down a spiraling annual deficit left by a GOP President.

Trump was the worst fiscal steward of America in the post-war era, with no one even close. 8/

Gas prices continue to plummet, creating a far better economy for all. We're down now to $2.99 in some places.

At this point almost all of our elevated gas prices are due to Putin's aggression.

Blaming Biden for high gas prices was always ridiculous. 9/

Every measure of wage growth - people making more money - continue to be at an historically high level.

This graph is from the @AtlantaFed. Prime age workers wages up 7%. With inflation coming down real wages likely to be positive again, or close to it.

10/
This contrast between repeated strong economies under Dems and repeated recessions/failure under Rs remains the most important least understood in American politics today.

I have a whole 30 minute presentation on this - do watch! 11/

ndn.org/WithDemocrats
More on the strong jobs report and chances of us transitioning from booming recovery to more stable growth: 12/
Live shot of Republican noise machine today:
An important Fed inflation tracking measure has inflation now close to 3%.

We will see where it comes in with the monthly report but the inflation spike caused by Putin's aggression is clearly easing. 13/

Important insights here from @paulkrugman.

Very possible that Rs exaggeration of real impact of inflation given ongoing wage increases led them to be overconfident in their electoral position, and unprepared for possibility of the landscape changing. 14/

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Aug 4
Have updated my core election analysis. Toplines:

- Race has moved 4-5 points towards Ds
- Senate leaning D, chance of keeping House rising
- Lots of signs of R struggles, landscape likely to get worse for Rs
- D candidates have big cash advantage 1/

ndn.org/competitive-el…
Recent GOP polling, D/R

Americans for Prosperity 42-39 (+3)
Echelon Insights 48-44 (+4)
Chamber of Commerce 46-41 (+5)
Winning The Issues 47-41 (+6)

Dems up an average of 4.5 in these influential R polls. That's keep the House territory. 2/
More GOP polling. Changes in these polls show big shift to Ds:

Rasmussen goes 39-49 to 41-46 - 5 pt shift
American Greatness 42-50 to 44-45 - 7 pt shift
Senate Opportunity Fund 42-47 to 44-45 - 4 pt shift

What are Rs seeing in their polling?

A new, bluer election. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Aug 3
Hey, Giancarlo, appreciate the thoughtfulness of the response here. A short response:

The big question about the Hispanic vote right now is was this movement we saw in 2020 (and other studies show less movement than Pew) lasting?

Would it outlive COVID/shutdowns and Trump? 1/
What I've been presenting is what we are seeing now, in this cycle, in large sample bilingual polls in the states. It is the best data we have about where are now, in 2022.

And it shows Dems outperforming 2020 Biden Trump numbers in all 4 states. 2/

As you know if Dems were only ahead by a few points with Hispanics now we could not be leading in states like AZ and NV and Abbott would not be under 50 in TX.

There just isn't evidence of further Dem erosion with Hispanics in these states. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Aug 3
Political analysts should have taken the results of the late June NE House special far more seriously.

It was an actual vote, not a poll, and it showed Dems way over performing their 2020 numbers in a red state.

The results suggested a wave was possible - a blue one. 1/
We didn’t have a lot of public polling of individual races until recently.

But the polling we now have from June on finds persistent GOP underperformance, something I call the “MAGA hangover.”

In many of these races Dems are over performing expectations. 2/
We also now know that Dem candidates have huge cash on hand advantages heading into the home stretch.

In incumbent House races it’s 8:1.

GOP candidates are struggling to raise money.

Another sign of an election leaning Dem. 3/

nbcnews.com/meet-the-press…
Read 11 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Aug 1
Some new Hispanic data:

2020 Biden/Trump, 2022 Polling

AZ 61-37 (+24) Kelly-Brnovich 67-21 (+46)
NV 61-35 (+26) Cortez Masto-Laxalt 63-25 (+38)
PA 68-27 (+41) Fetterman-Oz 64-18 (+46)
TX 58-41 (+17) Beto-Abbott 54-38 (+18)

All movement is towards Dems, not GOP. 1/
Still trying to understand how we got to the place where is it conventional wisdom Hispanics are moving to the GOP.

It's a bit like the "red wave" narrative. It was interesting, but never true, in actual data.

More on the Hispanic vote👇 2/

We know FL Hispanics have moved to the GOP, some. But as this data shows it is not clear it is happening anywhere else, even in Texas.

My explanation for why some natl polls show movement is that their subsamples are likely too old and English dominant and thus way too GOP. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Aug 1
Let's discuss the economy for a moment.

New Fed data suggests the current inflation rate is down to 3 percent or so. We know gas prices are down almost a dollar in recent weeks.

Fed, team Biden efforts to get inflation down appear to be working. 1/

If inflation is down to 3% or so, how are wages doing?

@AtlantaFed wage tracker is coming at about 7%. See below.

That means real wages are now likely to be positive again, as they were before Russia invaded Ukraine and inflation here and everywhere spiked. 2/
Taken together slowing inflation and continued strong job/wage growth is why we are not in a recession.

The economy is, as @POTUS likes to say, successfully transitioning from a robust recovery to more sustainable growth.

This is good news!!!!!! 3/

Read 9 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jul 31
Analysts who claim Hispanics have moved to GOP also have to explain how:

Kelly (AZ) and Cortez Masto (NV) lead

Abbott can be under 50 in Texas

Dems swept AZ, CO, NM, NV for 1st time in 80 yrs, won 4 Senate seats there in last 2 elections.

Confirming data not there.
Know this is a bit of a narrative buster but the largest public polling project of Hispanics this year has Dems making gains, Rs struggling in 3 key battleground states.

Again this data is a refutation of the Rs making big Hispanic gains take.

ndn.org/hispanic-vote-…
And a large sample Texas poll has Abbott at 36% with Hispanics against Beto. Cruz got 34% against Beto in 2018. No sign of a big swing towards Rs here.

Read 4 tweets

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