Just how much more severe is the financial hit now facing UK households due to rising energy bills? 📈
And how big is the financial hole in household budgets the government is being urged to fill? 💰
A thread...🧵1/
Start with May, when the government brought in its latest financial support package.
Here's @resfoundation modelling showing the projected hit by household vingtile from rising bills over 2022-23 (blue).
And the total financial support coming from government (red)... 2/
Notice that for those in the bottom quarter the financial supoort was more or less matching the expected increase increase in energy bills, which is why the May package was widely praised for being (belatedly) progressive...3/
But Putin's weaponisation of Russia' gas exports have sent wholesale gas prices soaring since May.
And it's these wholesale prices that determine the UK price domestic energy price cap...4/
In May Ofgem was projecing the price cap to rise to £2,800 a year in October.
But it's now clear that that's a massive underestimate.
@CornwallInsight is now projecting the price cap to hit £3,400 this Autumn.
So around £600 more than Ofgem's May projection...5/
Plug that £600 extra into the May distributional chart (assuming £600 flat increase for every household) and you get the green bars below.
So the government support bars in red are now obviously getting swamped right across the income distribution...6/
Which is especially concerned for those in the bottom quarter - who are far less likely to have savings - these are the "heating or eating" choice households...7/
In response, Rishi Sunak says he would cancel VAT from energy bills for a year.
& Liz Truss says she will temporarily remove "green levies" from bills.
These will reduce averge bills by around £150 - much smaller than the £600 gap that's opened up relative to May...8/
Liz Truss also says she would reverse the April National Insurance hike.
But while according to @resfoundation calculations, this would save those in the richer half of households around £750, it would only save the POORER half around £150...9/
For the most vulnerable households - those in the bottom quintile - the benefit of reversing the NI hike would be just £60, a tenth of the average projected bill increase....10/
Upshot: If the two PM candidates want to put the situation back to May, where the government was largely shielding low income households from the impact of soaring energy bills they would have alot more work to do...11/
And why what's NOT in the #KingsSpeech tomorrow could be as signficant as what is...
🧵
Before the election was called Labour warned, via the @FinancialTimes, of a series of crises that they would likely inherit.
The items on what was referred to as a "sh*t list" have not got any less urgent.... ft.com/content/b95976…
First, decisions on public sector pay for 2024-25 have to be taken by the end of this month.
The @TheIFS estimates that to stop the gap between public sector and private sector pay getting worse the Government would have to find another £7bn/year... ft.com/content/bee669…
The Treasury says the £7.3bn of the National Wealth Fund "will be allocated through the UK Infrastructure Bank so it can start being made immediately"...
This is a bit different than was anticipated in the Labour manifesto, which suggested the money would be spent at a rate of around £1.5bn a year over the Parliament...
With the costings document suggesting around 75% would be borrowed (£1.2bn of total additional capex funded by windfall tax and £3.5bn from borrowing)...
The Conservatives have released a host of adverts about the state pension on Facebook which we at #BBCVerify think are misleading.
Here's why...🧵 1/9
“Remember when Labour increased the state pension by only 75p?” asks the Tory video adverts, contrasting this with a claimed £3,700 increase since the Tories came into government in 2010...2/9
BBC Verify analysis of the ad library data of Meta, Facebook’s parent company, suggests they have run 975 versions of this single campaign message - just changing the name of the town or city being targeted - since 21 June...3/9
The Green party (England and Wales) leader Adrian Ramsay told @BBCr4today:
“We would still be near the bottom off the European league in terms of tax base overall [if we implemented our proposed tax rises]”
Let's look at this...#BBCVerify
OECD data shows tax as a share of GDP in 2021 was 33.5% - certainly below most big EU countries and the average of the EU14 (countries who were members of the EU prior to 2004)...
But, as we know, tax is rising as a share of UK GDP.
And by 2027/28 the @TheIFS estimate it would be 37.7% of GDP - putting us closer to the middle of the European pack...
There was an odd claim this morning by Jeremy Hunt in his media round:
“Living standards have fallen by more [than the UK] in Germany, Austria, or Sweden”...
Brief 🧵...
...He didn't specify over what time period he was talking about, or what measure of living standards he was using, or why he'd selected those countries to compare...
...At Verify, we've been pressing the Treasury for some guidance on all these points.
They've told us the Chancellor was referring to this measure from the OECD called "Real gross disposable income per capita of households"...data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?fs[0]=Topi…