Thread by @GeoConfirmed

With our GeoConfirmed team we took a closer look at the attack at Saki Airbase in Crimea.

Yes, we called it an attack, because it's highly likely that it was.

Why?

Let's break it down 🧵

01/11

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1556996656079507456

First some GeoLocations:

(1)

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1557026821572632577

GeoConfirmed by @Noobieshunta_ to 45.123190, 33.617881.

This gives us an indication of direction and distance between the two explosions.

02/11

(2)

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1557031742267179009

GeoConfirmed by @Noobieshunta_ to 45.130707, 33.581680.

This gives us also an indication of the direction and distance between the two explosions.

03/11

But the second geolocation is the most important one:
Because the location of the runner is precise. First explosion left side of the soccer goal, second explosion one "goal" length to the right of the real goal (...)

Yellow = left explosion
Purple = right explosion

04/11

So our estimated target boxes are these:

(With an average distance between them of 750m)

05/11

This video is geolocated in the purple box.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1557080196011941889

Geolocated by @spanishcossack to 45.089930, 33.586800

06/11

There is absolutely no chance that a fire can cause 2 explosions, with that distance between them, at the exact same time and with the same cloud formation.
And then a third explosion with the exact same cloud again?

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1556996656079507456

07/11

If this was 'wrong manipulation', that would mean three times the same amount and type of ammunition would have exploded?

And the first 'starting fire' was probably an explosion to. (We didn't found any video's yet of the start of the first fire.)

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1556990248076427264

08/11

Conclusion:

This was highly likely an Ukrainian attack with a short-range ballistic missile.
And Ukraine has this capacity.

jamestown.org/program/ukrain…

09/11

This was a significant strike, it was not only showing the capabilities of the 🇺🇦 army, still effective after almost 6 months of war against the 🇷🇺 aggressor, but it also showed the thousands 🇷🇺 tourists at Crimea that the war is still going.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1556985045533003776

10/11

And those tourists are going home...
A lot of them in fear...
So the psychological significance of this -highly likely- Ukrainian strike has probably a much higher impact than the destruction of military equipment on the airfield.

This is our preliminary estimation.

11/11

12/11

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1557219513858490368?t=XxYjrS7oRuLLrkJY_OjcKA&s=19

13/11.

Intact ammunition depot.
But other targets were blown.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1557475072306208768?t=ozBe3skRum-pa5RfA9-Y-Q&s=19

14/11

What was in the buildings?

Very accurate bombing:
- Missiles?
- Sabotage?

2 possibilities.

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557440583878299651?t=1sdEv-dXYyjhLguZt9AlZw&s=19