Thread by @chrisschmitz

I have checked the possible #ATACMS attack on #SakiAirBase in #CMO, which is never perfect, but always a very good guess.
Assumed launch site south of Odessa, launch time 10:00 ZULU/12:00 local.
(short thread)!
#ukraine #ukrainewar

This is an attempt to understand flight times, speeds and possible impact angles and speeds, as we have seen fairly large craters.
We are using MGM-140 #ATACMS Block IA, has multiple warhead options, the fact that submunitions are chosen here is merely a cosmetic choice.

Also make sure to head over to @rrichcord on his analysis and @OSINTua for sat pictures.

https://twitter.com/rrichcord/status/1557169834215018496

@rrichcord @OSINTua Our Target is the Airfield in Saki, for this we have just used a simulated test-target, as our focus is flight time and trajectory.

@rrichcord @OSINTua The overall Situation is visible here, Saky is close to the range limit (orange) of the simulated #atacms Blk IA.
Let us look at how the attach went in the next few postings. #ukraine #ukrainewar #SakiAirBase

@rrichcord @OSINTua As you can see, we triggered a launch at 12:00 local, the screen is 3 minutes 22 seconds in the scenario.

The ATACMS have reached the highest point of the flight, at ~105km, doing about 3200km/h (1750kts), so they are actually in "space".

@rrichcord @OSINTua The next check is 10 miles out from target. The #ATACMS have entered a steep dive to attack the target.
Less than 10 miles out, they are still at ~90.000 ft, so approximately 27km high, travelling at ~5000 km/h (3000 kts).
This is insanely fast, they will impact in less than 20s.

@rrichcord @OSINTua One of the last data points before impact, about 6000 km/h (3250 kts) a mere 9000ft, so approximately 2.5km, above ground. The rockets will impact in a second, and are travelling almost vertically down at hypersonic speeds.

#atacms

@rrichcord @OSINTua The missles have impacted, less than six minute flight time in total.
The extremely steep impact angle, almost vertically down, at hypersonic speed, explains why the explosions are sudden, and no footage exists of the missle incoming.
#atacms? Possible.
#SakiAirBase #ukraine

As bonus, here is the approximate time/altitude/velocity plot.
The time of engine cut off is clearly visible.

cc @rrichcord