This map is very telling, and concerning as datapoint.

Zero NATO assets between UK and Ukraine, Italy to Baltics.
NATO has changed operations to a combat setting.

There is a very large attack on Ukraine right now, and an incursion in Baltics.
There will be active Fighters, AEW and Tankers.
Not even the tankers are shown anymore. I have researched when this happened, it was likely around midnight Friday to Saturday.
The typical UK Voyager for the night rotation for the Eastern Guardian Mission was already missing 24h ago.

The core nature of war never changes.

This is the one of the most brutal battlefields you likely never heard of, the "Tollense Valley Battlefield".

Do not repeat the past, but learn from it.
Short thread: Let me explain quickly what we have here.

We have a river valley, that has NOT changed materially since the battle took place, you have to assume it was more forested though.

This battle was a huge one, especially considering the sizes of population back then, around 1300 BC.

Kann die Luftwaffe auch Opfer eines "Drohnen-Sabotage-Angriffes" werden?

Die Antwort darauf in Faden, mit Bildern, Karten und Erklärungen 🧵👇 Fangen wir mit dem Hauptwaffensystem der Luftwaffe an, dem Eurofighter.

Die ~130 EF der Luftwaffe sind alle in rundum geschlossenen Gebäuden untergebracht.
Lediglich vor dem Start geht die Tür auf, es ist für außenstehende nicht ersichtlich, wann und wo Flieger gelagert sind.
Das Zeitfenster zum Angriff ist entsprechend klein, die Flieger sind gut geschützt.
Die Shelter sind kein Schutz vor Bomben oder Cruise Missles, aber ein Schutz gegen einen Angriff von FPV-Drohnen.
Hier eine Reihe Shelter in Nörvenich im Satbild, und dann auf der Bodenebene, der Shelter links ist geschlossen, der Shelter rechts ist kurz vor "Abfahrt".

Ergo: Die EF sind grundsätzlich GUT gegen asymetrische Angriffe mit FPV geschützt.

Comparing GenAI of Midjourney 6.1 with Dalle-E using "OSINT" "SECURITY" "MILITARY" prompts.
Text will be prompt (sans instructions, like --v6.1 etc), the four images are the midjourney output, the single is the Dall-E Output.

Thread: a fictional spymaster, spinning his web of lies over europe

Die Suche nach dem Täter "Mannheim", ein kurzer Faden.

Im Bild hier, 8:47 im "ganzen Video", tritt er zum ersten mal (für mich erkenntlich) in Erscheinung.
Die Tat beginnt ab 12:30, also 3 Minuten 43 Sekunden später.
#mannheim #anschlag #terror Bei 9:07 ist der Täter nah am Zelt, schaut abwechselnd auf sein Mobiltelefon und die Plakate.
Ob er sich mit Dritten koordiniert, oder lediglich sein Verhalten verschleiern möchte, ist für mich nicht ersichtlich.

Da das Video im #mannheim Faden X nicht mochte, hier nochmals ein neuer Faden. Wir gehen Bild zu Bild durch die Szenen, um so eine Einordnung der Tat durchführen zu können.

Faden: Das Video beginnt direkt mit einem Angriff auf das erste Opfer. Wir sehen werder im Bild, noch im Hintergrund, uniformierte Polizei. Der Angreifer scheint im Handgemenge mit dem Opfer zu fallen, zwei weitere der Gruppe "blau" helfen ihrem Kollegen.

To celebrate, as @TBrit90 called it, "VDV deletion appreciation day", enjoy the following thread:
All VDV, all high quality, restored footage from that day, starting of with the failed assault from the russian view.

Enjoy, like, share, subscribe! My favourite Video from the early phase of the war. RU Mi-8 and Mi-24 moving to Hostomel (above invasion force), low over Kyiv Reservoir.

DWA !!! DWAAAAAAAAAA!!!
MANPADS were a thing, @MerenzSophia take notice.

A brief thread on the Shahed 136 aka GERAN Loitering Munition "Drone" used by Russia against #ukraine.

To the surprise of many, it is a story about the hostility to Innovation by the German Miltiary ( hi BaainBw !)

Thread: The root of the concept is from the 1980ies, called the DORNIER DAR (Drone, Anti Radar).
It was supposed to be a low cost mass launched loitering munitions that would home in on Russian Air Defence Emissions, and destroy them with 0 Risk to the Operator.

Here is a pic(oops!)

This is confirmed in multiple locations, on the mentioned frequencies, either directly or via web-sdr.

I consider this very concerning, as this could be a strategic contingency planning of RU strategic rocket forces.
@HamWa07 @shortwave78 @thomas_wiegold

#russia #ukraine #nato

https://twitter.com/shortwave78/status/1749006027582853213

@HamWa07 @shortwave78 @thomas_wiegold Its very clear on which is located near Kaliningrad, if you set it to 7000 khz and cw-narrow (and enable audio)websdr.printf.cc:8901

Here my takeaways for the hard lessons of the #UkraineRussianWar #ukraine (🧵):

Lesson #1: We do not yet know if the current war is the "scale" that we have to deal with, or if this war will only be seen as a precursor to a bigger, global conflict.
We should plan accordingly. Lesson #2:
The number one gamechanger in this war are small, commercial off the shelf drones. Most Armies are not prepared AT ALL, and not supplied at all, while in reality, it should be a core capability from the platoon up.
Drones are the Binocular of the 21st century.

Nukes and #iran, what could be done to stop that (by #USA or #Israel)?
With a high chance of a kinetic outcome to the Iran #nuclear ambitions, lets see what could happen.

Allow me to boringly present the results of armchair-ing and sim using @CommandDevTeam (long thread!) : twitter.com/i/web/status/1… @CommandDevTeam Lets understand the criteria for mission accomplished. I assume the following:
a) Nuclear Material Stocks are split between two hardened and well defended Fuel Enrichment Plants (FEP)
b) These two are assumed to be the hardened underground facilites at #Natanz and #Fordow

Russia has published a Video of a "sabotage Group" killed in Bryansk Border Region.
TL;DR I believe it is staged.
#ukraine #UkraineRussianWar️ #UkraineRussiaWar

Here are my findings 🧵: The "big" thing on this video is:
They must be western saboteurs, because they use SIG Sauer MPX 9mm Submachine guns, previously not seen in the war.
We can indeed see 9mm MPX,these are indeed Sig Sauer MPX 9mm Magazines.

Notice something? They are empty. Lets dig deeper.

These are pictures of the „new“ service rifle of the German army, the HK416A8.

A short thread on the gun, and how it is a good(and bad) procurement.
#miltwitter Starting from the muzzle, the first positive item:
the muzzle device is the (formerly) optional one, that was made specifically for QD mounting Surpressors built for NATO flash hiders. The grooves aid mounting and prevent carbon seize up, an excellent choice.

In der Diskussion um "#ukraine / #russland " wird gerne, z.B. von @JohannesVarwick, ein Einlenken mit der "Eskalationsdominanz" durch Russland begründet.

Ein kurzer Faden, warum ich anderer Meinung bin, inklusive Begründung und Belegen:
🧵 @JohannesVarwick Welche Formen der Eskalation gibt es?
Wir betrachten zu allererst die Räume Land, Luft, See sowie den Bereich "Zivilisation".
Dabei müssen wir immer zwei Faktoren betrachten: Quantität und Qualität, also wie viel vom möglichen wird gemacht, und wie schlimm wird es eingesetzt.

After 6 months of war, time to look at the "current" front at which the war hinges, the southern front.

Long thread incoming.

Feel free to ask questions!
#ukraine #UkraineRussianWar

Lets start with the intial map: As we have learned, a key factor are supply lines.
To underline that, I have combined above map with the openrailwaymap of the area.
Orange and brown are the significant railway connections of the area.

This combined map will be the basis of further analysis.
#ukraine

Multiple sources reported MIG-29 today, from #ukraine Air Force. One Video that matches the reports was posted at @ennolenze .
Summarizing reports, a lot can be drawn from these spottings. Lets get into it (short thread)

https://twitter.com/ennolenze/status/1557679423280889857

@ennolenze Lets start of by looking at the jet in higher resoltion.
A #mig29, very clearly. Also six missles visible.
The four outer pylons have two identical missles, the two inner pylons have identical missles.
What can we learn from the plane, and mission, from that?

Part two of my #cmo research into the #SakiAirBase attack, brief thread.

As suggested by @CommandDevTeam, Iskander is possibly the closest to the "Грім-2" by #ukraine . So I am using a 9M723 Iskander-M in this turn.

The intial #ATACMS was inconclusive

https://twitter.com/chrisschmitz/status/1557552423039864834

@CommandDevTeam The issue that we have is that the #ATACMS simulation shows that the "impact" type, "no warning, no pictures of missles, sudden explosion", can be explained by the hypersonic, vertical impact of SRBM.
What can not be explained is the flight time (too short) and "twin impact".

I have checked the possible #ATACMS attack on #SakiAirBase in #CMO, which is never perfect, but always a very good guess.
Assumed launch site south of Odessa, launch time 10:00 ZULU/12:00 local.
(short thread)!
#ukraine #ukrainewar This is an attempt to understand flight times, speeds and possible impact angles and speeds, as we have seen fairly large craters.
We are using MGM-140 #ATACMS Block IA, has multiple warhead options, the fact that submunitions are chosen here is merely a cosmetic choice.

A quick thread on key strategic elements of a possible #china #taiwan #usa conflict.
This aims at showing key facilities, areas of interest and a big picture and provide links where applicable, for those who want to dive into details.
Lets start with the overall picuture. The western strategem in the pacific involves containment around island chains, acting as "unsinkable aircraft carriers and bases", with Taiwan at the core of the first chain.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Ch…

This map shows the approxmate movement of the @USNavy Carrier Strike Group 5 in the South Chinese Sea in the past days.
The blue icons and circles are chinese installations in the spratly and paracel islands.
I believe this is directly related to #pelosi #taiwan.

My hypothesis: @USNavy The US really wants to avoid confrontation.
The US also knows that diplomacy works best with a solid backing.
Is the CSG5 there to "support Taiwan"?
No. Okinawa is closer, the Phillipine Sea would be better for a CSG.

This is deliberate, a position between Paracel and Spratly