Thread by @Nakamotolisk

$ETH seems to have gone through an ultra-fast bounce if we compare it to the previous cycle.

During the previous crypto cycle, ETH ranged between the low and the halfway point in log terms between the low and the high for the whole bear market.

There's no guarantee that this repeats but I think it's a decent starting point to work out what happens next.

Fundamentals catalysts (ETH merge?) will perhaps skew this a bit.

Also it's possible that crypto doesn't get any more bear markets (uponly?), but here's the thing with that: markets tend to move in cycles for quite deep reasons.

Maybe legacy markets go into uponly mode again because the Fed has decided not to do much about inflation ...

... but crypto probably can't go uponly with the current lack of real world applications, it's still a speculative asset class and speculation has cycles.

In 2018, 2016 and 2012 there were bearish/accumulative phases that made the next bullrun possible, and they lasted a long time.

Will this time be different?

Maybe bullruns in crypto have become too obvious and there's a lot of smart money that frontruns them, buying in quickly and accurately and then distributing, with perhaps a long-term uptrend. I.e. crypto becomes like stocks.

Either of the two processes shown above seem plausible to me, but something like this where crypto as a whole goes from a bear market bottom straight to new all-time-highs seems unlikely (cope?)

#Crypto price is a combination of a long-term trend of improving fundamentals and shorter term speculative cycles

It's plausible that as markets become more efficient, the price goes closer to the trend in fundamental value

Basically, this is a bunch of bad news if you didn't already buy the lows. Price will probably not go back there now. It sucks, but we have to move on and do the best we can from the current situation and take steps to make sure we never make mistakes like that again.

From here I suspect that there isn't much juice left in the Ethereum pump but it's reasonable to have some exposure - the EV is probably close to 0 over the next 18 months, but you at least guarantee avoiding the worst outcome.

Over the next 5-10 years it's probably very good EV though. So make of that what you will.