Thread by @ABarbashin

More than 5 months into this war 2/3 of Russians say that Russia is on the right track and only 22% think otherwise. In February, before the invasion, these figures were 50% and 39% respectively.
Why?
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In 2021, the year before the war, 48% of respondents evaluated Russia’s economic situation as ‘average’; 41%, as ‘bad’; and as few as 9%, as ‘good’. In July of 2022, 57% perceive the country’s economic situation as ‘average’. Most importantly, 40% of Russians believe
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that in a year life in Russia will be ‘better than now’. Fewer respondents (27%) think it will remain ‘as it is now’, and even fewer sceptics (18%) expect life to be ‘worse than now’.
47% are convinced that Russia will see ‘some improvement in political life’ in a year
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while another 13% believe in ‘significant improvement’.
Do the know about what's happening in Ukraine? What about sanctions?
56% say they follow situation closely.
Around half believe 'SMO' will end within a year another half think it will take even longer
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Is this the work of propaganda? Are these Russians happy about destructions in Ukraine?
In March 51% of Russians said that Special Military Operation brings about the feeling of pride. What are they proud of?
In the minds of most Russians this war is not about Ukraine
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It is a conflict with NATO and the USA. But it is not even about defeating or conquering USA.
"In this clash, America needs to feel and recognise that Russia is its equal. Equal in military strength, but, most importantly, equal in its status as a major world power"
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Most Russian believe the end of this world return Russia to the status of Soviet Union - that is being on par with the US (Russians tend to forget about China when thinking about the future).
In a sense, the way US is engaging in this war proves to Russians exactly that
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"Because it fears ‘us’ (Russia, Putin); hence, it respects us, sees us as equals"
And this is the key that explains why Russian are optimistic -
the worse the situation on the ground, the greater the desire to console oneself with success in fighting the US
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For majority of Russian it isn't even about military success as such - "but the very fact that Russia stepped up, threw down the gauntlet, and the gauntlet was picked up"
Russians are collectively experiencing a feeling of satisfaction that the world has been put
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into the order that they have long desired. In such a euphoric mood, no one thinks about the way the country or their family will survive, about their job or salary. People are happy and positive: everything will somehow work out
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since Russia is such a tough cookie that the whole world trembles before it.
Putin had successfully tapped into mass consciousness and is heavily exploiting the desire for grandpowerness.
How long will this last? We don't yet know
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And here propaganda is key - it helps reinforce the feeling of "fear/respect" from the war and attacks every uncomfortable news about the costs of this war.
Russians choose not to see the deaths and suffering in Ukraine - they choose to ignore their own dead that come back
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justifying it to themselves that it is the price of preserving Russia a great power.
Economic loss is not yet that heavy and overall discomfort so far is compensated with the "victories" over US and NATO.
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The key here is that Russians expect for things to improve - which they won't. Not in 6 months, not in a year. And eventually reality will start to bite and inevitably trigger a reaction.
For more details read this Alexey Levinson for @RiddleRussia
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ridl.io/if-nbsp-they-f…