Thread by @laurnorman

“Several.” The precise definition of what several means is going to be a very important factor in assessing the costs/benefits of a revival #IranDeal - if we get one. At essence, threshold nuclear or not?

https://twitter.com/usenvoyiran/status/1558454498896625665

“The situation we're in today, as a result of the decision to withdraw from the deal, is, Iran is only a handful of weeks away from having enough fissile material for a bomb.” -2-

“So, again, we have to compare this to the reality we're living today, if we could get a deal that would put Iran back ***several***months away from being able to have enough fissile material for a bomb,” @USEnvoyIran -3-

Reminder: I reported in Feb that US has concluded last fall that 12- month breakout time was now unattainable and the BoT could be as low as six months. Since then, Iran has built and installed hundreds of advanced centrifuges which in my understanding won’t be disassembled -4-

after a deal is revived although I don’t have that nailed down yet. But if they are simply stored at Natanz, hard to imagine that BoT hasn’t continued to fall over the last six months. Will be very important to know wha BoT US team assesses if there’s a deal. -5-

This is also very interesting from the @USEnvoyIran interview. The language here. He’s defining what matters in the safeguards probe which of course is an IAEA probe. “And really what the agency is interested in is not so much sort of a prehistorical or historical exploration”-6-

“What they want to know is, where's that uranium today, and make sure that it's accounted for and that it's under what is called safeguards. That's what the agency is particularly interested in.” So what matters is where material now is not where came from, essentially -7-

But look at language IAEA uses in its reports. Here from the latest in May. It refers to Origins of the material, not just where it is now. IAEA: “Unless and until Iran provides technically credible explanations for the presence of uranium particles of anthropogenic origin...”-8-

“at Turquzabad, Varamin and ‘Marivan’ and informs the Agency of the current location(s) of the nuclear material and/or of the contaminated equipment, the Agency cannot confirm the correctness and completeness of Iran’s declarations under its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement”-9-

In the interview, @USEnvoyIran stresses the US won’t undercut @rafaelmgrossi independence to report on Iran’s cooperation as it sees fit. So will be important to see the scope of Iran’s cooperation and whether it covers past as well as present when IAEA reports-if there’s a deal.