As far as I can see there are around half dozen possibilities tomorrow, which was the unofficial deadline for responding to the EU whether the #IranDeal participants accept the deal/text left on table after latest vienna talks. -1-
1/ I think most likely is that we get no Iranian response Monday at all. They like to make a point of ignoring western set deadlines and have been pretty scornful of idea that EU text from Monday is final and negotiations over. So doubtful we’ll get Iran response tomorrow. -2-
Second most likely is we get an Iranian response which is not framed as final. But says we are ok with bulk of text but we want “assurances” on several issues — including the safeguards IAEA probe. More talks needed, Tehran would say, either with EU or broader -3-
Third most likely to me is we get a no response from Tehran but we’re happy to keep talking to get a deal we can live with. I doubt Tehran will want to frame themselves as the ones saying no. They prefer to paint the ball in American court but not impossible.
Fourth most likely to me is we get a yes we can take the deal even if we want to finesse a word or two in text. Tehran just doesn’t seem to be in that place and I don’t know any source who has told me they think this likely. Even if it does happen, expect Iran to repeat that...
they won’t complete re-implementation of deal unless the safeguards probe is closed first. Which will leave a potentially messy crisis between now and deal revived day. The final - and for me least likely - option is that Iran says no and the negotiations are over.
I just don’t imagine Iran wanting to take all blame for this being over. That leaves a very big question for EU, E3 & US which to me is very uncertain. What do they do if they don’t get a clear Iran yes tomorrow or in next couple of days? Maybe a tweet thread tomorrow on options.
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