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Tuur Demeester Profile picture
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Aug 16 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
#HousingMarket bust: here's the next step down the bargaining ladder. Last summer pundits said "home ownership is slipping out of reach but that's okay", now we hear "this is a housing recession (but it'll be fine)".

Next stage of grief will be depression, then acceptance. Image
My thread from last summer:
Here's the updated chart from last year. When expressed in commodities, real estate is now trading 30% lower than 12 months ago. I don't expect this trend to stop any time soon. Image

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More from @TuurDemeester

Tuur Demeester Profile picture
Aug 1
The Internet is funded by service provider fees
Container ships are funded by shipping fees
Gold vaults are funded by gold storage fees
Power grids are funded by power fees

Yet bitcoin can't be funded by transaction fees? 🤷‍♂️
Fees are useful! The blockchain = final settlement layer for the global BTC financial system.
Works like a court: disputes on more centralized layers can be prevented or at least settled on the main chain. Every 10 minutes, ~3,000 global settlements per second are on auction. Image
If bitcoin's market cap grows to $100T, the sum of its mining fees could amount to $1T/year. Sounds like a sufficient and sustainable funding source for its firewall to me.
Read 4 tweets
Tuur Demeester Profile picture
Jul 30
10 years ago this month I reached out to @pwuille for an interview about bitcoin. Over time, Pieter's work helped me understand the importance of prudence, rigor and nuance when it comes to thinking about distributed systems.
In the early years, Pieter's answers on stackexchange were one of my most important sources for technical questions about bitcoin. To this day it remains a valuable resource used by many: bitcoin.stackexchange.com/users/208/piet…
For Dutch speakers with interest, here's a link to the full interview:
Read 4 tweets
Tuur Demeester Profile picture
Jul 27
There’s something fascinating about the contrast of an NFT, which supposedly affirms the human origin of art, with AI generated art, producing endless variations at ~ zero cost.
Can you tell which is the NFT and which is the AI generated image? 👇
(I’ll share the answer later today)
ANSWER: the image on the left is AI generated, whereas the one on the right was marketed as an NFT. Most of you got it right!
Read 4 tweets
Tuur Demeester Profile picture
Jul 19
1/ Scammers are smooth, that’s how they get you.🙁 Due diligence was easier in bitcoin’s early days, when you’d have personal convos with founders & peers. Now there’s more eyeballs and better analysis, but at the price of reduced personal access, so you rely more on propaganda.
2/ Personal conversations are my absolute first go to for due diligence. For me they’re the best way to spot inconsistencies, manipulative behavior, high time preference, and lack of moral backbone in startup founders.
3/ Imo it’s really important to also talk to other independent people who have talked to the founders you’re doing due diligence on: what did they notice, like and not like, what questions went unanswered, etc. Talking to peers helps you cover your own blind spots.
Read 4 tweets
Tuur Demeester Profile picture
Jul 2
White House intern: "But sir, gas stations barely charge a 1% markup on the fuel they sell. They make their money selling snacks and beverages."
Biden: "Listen eh... Lizzy, elections are coming and we need to point the finger somewhere! We gotta show the public that we care."
I know this because I watched House of Cards
Background. Of course it's basic economics that any kind of price controls will result in shortages. Market participants cannot be forced to sell at a loss, if that is asked of them they will simply withdraw from the market.
Read 4 tweets
Tuur Demeester Profile picture
Jun 20
1/ The cause of the Panic of 1907 was overconfidence expressed in overleveraging and shady activities, after a long period of huge genuine productivity gains in the US economy. I see similarities with this #Bitcoin Panic.
wiki.mises.org/wiki/Panic_of_…
2/ The public looked at the 1907 panic disparagingly, believing that it revealed how rotten things had gotten on Wall Street. The caption under this "rotten finance" cartoon reads: "All the Street's men can't put Humpty back again", referring to the loss in market confidence.
3/ And this contemporary cartoon suggests that the 1907 Panic was a good thing, spewing "common honesty" in the air like Vesuvius spewed her ashes over Pompeii, causing all the finance grifters to flee far away.
Read 17 tweets

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