Thread by @tdarling1

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

1/9 🧵

Global Macro Review 08/21/2022

$UUP 🚀
$VIX ↗️
$TLT ↘️
$GLD ↘️
$EFA ↘️
$BNO ↘️
$DBA ↘️

An aberration? or a resumption of primary Trend = (T)

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

2/9

🤴🏽 💵 aka the wrecking 🎳

$UUP +2.4% (w) +5.05% (T)
$FXF -1.75% (w) +1.45% (T)
$FXC -1.8% (w) -1.25% (T)
$FXE -2.2% (w) -5.15% (T)
$FXB -2.55% (w) -5.3% (T)
$FXY -2.5% (w) -6.7% (T)
$FXA -3.44% (w) -2.25% (T)

Chart: $USD with room to run

2a/9

$EURUSD back to parity

2b/9

$AUDUSD back down under you go!
🦘🔨’d

3/9

The UST yield curve steeped as the 2s held ground at 3.25% while the 10s rose 14 BPS to 2.98% and back to ♉️ (T)

Chart: 10s/2s steepened to -26 BPS

3a/9

Showing signs of quiescence the week before, the MOVE index +17.53 BPS this week to 123.81

Chart: MOVE 🌊↗️

3b/n9

With the ↗️ move in UST yields, bond ETFs flipped back to 🐻 (T)

$BND -1.05% (w) -1.1% (T)
$HYG -2.5% (w) -0.65% (T)
$IEF -1.15% (w) -1.3% (T)
$LQD -2.3% (w) -0.75% (T)
$TIP -0.05% (w) -2.65% (T)
$TLT -2.15% (w) -4.6% (T)

Chart: Will $TLT find support at 111-112 or ↘️?

4/9

#OPEX destroyed the 4250-4300 “call wall.”

You are now free to roam about the cabin
un 📌

$SPX -1.2% (w) +8.4% (T)
$COMPQ -2.6% (w) +11.9% (T)
$IWM -2.85% (w) +10.55% (T)

Chart: $SPX found an interesting spot to pullback but remains ♉️

4a/9

Top 3 US sectors for the week
Food and energy 🤔

$XLP +1.85% (w) +8.8% (T)
$XLU +1.3% (w) +8.3% (T)
$XLE +1.25% (w) -2.8% (T)

Chart: $XLU with a new ATH when adjusted for dividends ♉️

4b/9

Low beta out performed high beta

$SPLV +0.72% (w) +6.45% (T)
$SPHB -4.25% (w) +8.2% (T)

Chart: $SPLV +7.7% over the past month = (t) = trade ♉️

4c/9

Value outperformed growth

$SPYV -0.45% (w) +4.15% (T)
$SPYG -1.9% (w) +13.05% (T)

Chart: $SPYV +5.95% has trailed growth by 186 BPS over (t)

5/9

Unaffected by #opex, internat’l indices ↔️ with 🇯🇵 ↗️ 🇭🇰 ↘️

$NIKK +1.35% (w) +8.2% (T) 🇯🇵
$SSEC -0.55% (w) +3.55% (T)
$CAC -0.9% (w) +3.35% (T)
$KOSPI -1.4% (w) -5.5% (T)
$DAX -1.8% (w) -3.15% (T)
$HSI -2.0% (w) -4.45% (T) 🇭🇰

Chart: $NIKK + 3.65% over (t) duration ♉️

5a/9

Strong USD exacerbated ↘️ moves non #FX hedged country ETFs

$EWJ -2.45% (w) -2.55% (T) 🇯🇵
$FXI -3.5% (w) -4.1% (T)
$EWQ -3.45% (w) -7.65% (T)
$EWY -5.25% (w) -10.9% (T)
$EWG -5.0% (w) 11.9% (T)
$EWH -2.21% (w) -4.45% (T) 🇭🇰

Chart: EWG 🇩🇪 is to be shorted with impunity 🩳

6/9

Precious metals 🐒🔨’d

$GOLD -2.9% (w) -4.3% (T)
$PLAT -7.45% (w) -5.65% (T)
$SILVER -7.9% (w) -12.0% (T)
$COPPER -0.25% (w) -14.5% (T)

Chart: $GOLD back to 🐻 (T) after last week’s debut at neutral 🩳

7/9

Hydrocarbons ↔️ on the week with 🛢 trying to find a bottom

$NATGAS +6.5% (w) 15.6% (T)
$GASO +0.35% (w) -24.4% (T)
$WTIC -1.8% (w) -18.0% (T)
$BRENT -2.1% (w) -15.0% (T)

Chart: $NATGAS with a nominal new high at 9.68

8/9

Grains continued to get pummeled 👊🩸

$CORN -4.85% (w) -19.95% (T)
$SOYB -3.45% (w) -17.65% (T)
$SUGAR -2.7% (w) -9.05% (T)
$WHEAT -4.35% (w) -34.05% (T)

Chart: $WHEAT abundant and selling at a discount ↘️ -40% since the May high

9/9

Strong $USD and rising $TNX + MOVE ahead of Jackson Hole suggests that equities are to be played 🩳 side #RiskOff

Hedging my long bond exposure $TBT and buying relatively cheap vol $VIXM

👁‍🗨 on $EURUSD 🇪🇺 and have a super profitable 💰 week!