Lesson for Western diplomacy: Don’t second-guess Ukrainians
Lesson for global diplomacy: Putin’s regime can’t be trusted—and needs to be defeated
Lesson for US foreign policy: The United States can no longer rely on strategic ambiguity
Lesson for US national security: Washington must contend with Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran at the same time
Lesson for military operations: Equipment doesn’t win wars. People do.
Lesson for military planning: Nimble modern weapons can defeat larger, conventionally armed forces—especially when on the defensive
Lesson for deterrence: Troop deployments work better than threats of economic sanctions
Lesson for the global economy: The new tools of conflict are economic—and they are powerful
Lesson for economic statecraft: Don’t separate sanctions from longer-term foreign-policy objectives
Lesson for economic statecraft: Sanctions work, but they are messy and take time
Lesson for wartime strategic communications: Influence operations are a day-in, day-out job
Lesson for hybrid warfare: Don’t ignore the fundamentals
Lesson for the energy sector: Decades of energy diplomacy can disappear with one brutal invasion
Lesson for global intelligence: Russia is not ten feet tall
Lesson for would-be invaders: You can’t hide preparations for a full-scale invasion
Lesson for cybersecurity: The private sector should play a critical military-operational role in cyberspace
Lesson for US homeland security: Ignoring the home front is a serious mistake
Lesson for US assistance policy: Invest deeply in key resilient partners
Lesson for NATO: The Alliance is a uniquely valuable institution that requires enduring political and financial investment
Lesson for Ukraine: There’s no way back for relations with Russia
Lesson for China: Today’s Ukraine is not tomorrow’s Taiwan
Lesson for Middle East policymakers: America will always do the right thing, but only after exhausting all the alternatives
Lesson for Germany and its allies: Seize this moment for a strategic reversal
At the end of the thread - Georgia HAS to take all those lessons and add some of its own, but I'm afraid, the current government isn't able to do so :/ 🧵
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ცოტა ქართული ძაფის გორგალიც გავუშვათ 🧵— “პუტინმა ეს ომი მანამდე წააგო, სანამ დაიწყებდა”- ესტონეთის ყოფილი პრეზიდენტი, კერსტი კალიულაიდი radiotavisupleba.ge/a/31787419.html
ვფიქრობ, წინ გველოდება გრძელი, ცივი ომის მსგავსი პერიოდი, რომელშიც ისედაც მოგვიწევს ჩვენი სამხედრო პროდუქციისა და ბიუჯეტის გაზრდა, ასე რომ, ჯობია, ეს დროზე გავაკეთოთ და უკრაინას მივაწოდოთ ყველაფერი, რაც შეგვიძლია“, - ამბობს ესტონეთის ყოფილი პრეზიდენტი კერსტი კალიულაიდი
სტოლტენბერგის ვადა 1 წლით გახანგრძლივდა, ეს ბრძნული გადაწყვეტილებაა. ამ საკითხზე სპეკულირება არ ღირს. მის სამუშაოს დადებითად ვაფასებ, ის დიდებული მედიატორია, ყველა მოკავშირე ქვეყნისთვის ახლობელი ფიგურა - მოდით, ნუ დავიწყებთ ნატოს მომავალი გენერალური მდივნის კანდიდატურის განხილვას
Okay so there's apparently a theory that: #Empires live for 300 years.
First of all, definitions of empires are quite vague
Secondly, the duration given here is an average
An interesting view on it is given by the @ForeignPolicy article here: archive.is/YM5ri <🧵>
Some quotes: We tend to assume that the life cycle of empires, great powers, and civilizations has a predictable regularity to it. Yet the most striking thing about past empires is the extraordinary variability in the chronological as well as geographic expanse of their dominion.
Average Roman empire lasted 829 years: West Roman Empire from 27 B.C. (Octavian became Caesar Augustus) & till Constantinople established in 395, total of 422 years. East Roman Empire from then until sack of Byzantium by Ottoman Turks in 1453, 1,058 years.