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Aug 27 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Europe/Germany's freak flood event in the Ahr valley was last years "wake the fuck up" event for 2021 in #ClimateChange Terms.

The 17-day-long stationary cyclone like storm over Pakistan since August 10th is 2022s. As of now we have no idea how big this event is.
The number of affected people has climbed rapidly today as the storm finally appears to be coming to an end. The latest number is 45 Million severely effected people. But some of the most effected areas in the mountains of Afganistan & Pakistan are inaccessible.
At least 145 bridges have been washed away and 1000s of KMs of roads.
What we do know is what caused this devastating flooding event - an astonishing weather event that began on August 10th.
Here is the initial update thread on this event - which covers the period from 10th August through August 19th. The actual #ExtremeWearther event has run all the way through till today - August 27th.
An enormous international aid response effort is going to be needed to respond to what has just happened in Pakistan and possibly also to parts of neighbouring India and Afghanistan. This report from Australia - which is no stranger to flooding.
Interestingly, the global model forecast for this event was spot on.Picking the exact day that it came to an end - back on 19th August.
However foreknowledge of an event of this scale doesn't really allow you to do anything particularly meaningful to mitigate it.

This is I think the first "Weather Event of Mass Destruction" of the #ClimateChangeNow era. There have been lots of events, but nothing close to this.
The only good news at this point is that at least it does appear that the event is ending soon. This is a 10-day forecast for atmospheric water. There will be more rain still. But hopefully not like it has been.
The animation above is from the AccessG Model. This one is from the ECMWF. They are in agreement about it ending.
By way of contrast... this is what the last 90 hours looked like up till today.
/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 27
@DrTedros & the 5th TPLF War – Research Thread

Conclusions:
1/ EVE OF WAR
It looks as if @UN & @WFP had advance knowledge of the war and tried to stop it - and asked Tedros to help.

[Research Thread workings in quoted thread >> screenshots/data.]
Conclusions: 2/13
EVE OF THE WAR
- 20/8 TPLF asks WFP for 12 Fuel Tankers in a letter
- 22/8 TPLF takes fuel
- 23/8 Dr Tedros does not tweet apart from one @WHO RT - which is unusual.
Conclusions: 3/13
DAY OF THE WAR
- 24/8 @DrTedros tweets about “unimaginable cruelty” in Tigray at 1.23 am in the morning.
- 24/8 @unspokesperson briefs on WFP fuel theft
- 25/8 UN briefs media again and appears on CNN

Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 27
Thread taking a look at @DrTedros's Tweets in the lead up to the resumption of war by the TPLF . Focusing on this one from August 25th, which appears to be a coded message to his TPLF comrades. Image
Here are his tweets from August 10th - August 19th. His usual fare, amplifying reports that he thinks are positive towards the TPLF side, he must not have read @BerheLucy's report though, as it isn't. ImageImage
Then on the day that the war started - 24/8 - he posts this tweet at 1.23am in the morning. Referencing an AFP report posted 17/8 by Yahoo News.
The report is based on his WHO briefing of 14th August when he said the west was racist wrt Tigray.
Image
Read 40 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 27
The story in here about the Ukrainian-Russian connected Rothschild imposter who has been visiting Mar-a-Lago over the past couple of years is wild!

Watch All In With Chris Hayes Highlights: Aug. 26 via @YouTube
@YouTube Looks like another possible Maria Butina scenario. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_But…
Direct link to the segment which was originally on CNBC >>
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 27
Pakistan's massive floods bring more grief via @YouTube
@YouTube NBC News report says 50,000 homeless in Pakistan flooding.
... but Insider News says the homeless total is 20 million.

And that seems likely to be more accurate.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 27
This was broadcast on August 23rd? Are you sure about that @iyoba4u. he day before the war started. And the day before the UN raised the matter in its daily briefing. I presume this is right. Ethiopia wasn't even mentioned in the UN Briefing that day >> press.un.org/en/2022/db2208…
This lines up with Tronvoll's released document. Which shows the TPLF made their written request to WFP on 14/12/2014 - two days earlier.

This - broadcast on the 23rd of August now looks like part of an attempt by UNSG and @UNSpokesperson to stop TPLF's war from starting.
This also suggests that both the US and UN possibly knew TPLF was going to start a war on the 24th or thereabouts - and did not call upon them not to do so publicly - when they had the chance on the 23rd.

US Secretary of State @SecBlinken issued his statement on the 24th.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 27
#ExtremeWeather Update Thread.

The current "Biblical" rain event over Pakistan - which has destroyed 145 bridges and has one third of the country under water began on August 10th - and has the form of a cyclone over land. 17 days of torrential rains. (image: last 24 hours)
This image, also today, shows the scale of the outflows from the cyclonic storm which remains centered around 300kms from the sea and which is fed by atmospheric water coming off the North Arabian Sea. The outflows from the storm are causing devastating flooding further north.
This thread will now look at what happened since the last thread which ended on August 19th. The set up for this catastrophic event involves two cyclones, both of which have remained largely intact over land. Here on the left you can see #Invest04B 2022 (unnamed) making landfall.
Read 22 tweets

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