Here are 4 tweets explaining how the latest battle in #Tripoli could turn into Libya’s next civil war
This moment captures the trauma of another horrible war as children flee gunfire.
1. A turf war broke out between armed groups affiliated to rival HoR appointed PM Bashagha (77) & UN backed PM Dbeibah (SSF) in downtown Tripoli Friday night, leading to an exchange of fire & loss of territory for Bashagha’s forces today transforming balance of power in #Tripoli
2. This was a pretext for Bashagha & Haftar to try a powergrab behind PM’s office.
The plan failed.
Plan B was to take a suburb of Tripoli & contest Dbeibah’s legitimacy.
Plan B is failing & mobilising armed groups towards capital & turning the battle into the next civil war
3. Current fighting
Central: Sreem & Zawia St
West: heavy fighting in Janzour 17th bridge.
South: heavy fighting in Airport road
East: Tajura is quiet. exchange of fire in Zliten, 180km from Tripoli
4. Civilians remain trapped in their homes in the most densely populated central suburbs of Tripoli.
Up to 13 civilian casualties & 95 injured, but toll will increase as fighting spreads & Red crescent cant establish humanitarian corridor
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
🧵 What does military build up in #Tripoli mean ahead of elections?
Tripoli military region’s commander Abdel Baset Marwan was removed by the GNU’s Presidential Council today sparking major military build up in the capital 8 days before scheduled elections.
Marwan was particularly close to leadership of 3 armed groups in Tripoli: TRB/Nawassi/Ghnewa
In October 2020 a rival Tripoli brigade the 444 brigade stormed Marwan’s house in an attempt to arrest him. This almost sparked a new round of conflict.
Today the Presidential Council replaced him with Brigadier Gen Abdel Qadar Saad Khalifa.
Khalifa participated in the GNA’s defence of Tripoli against Haftar’s LAAF in 2019. He developed strong ties to Radda/444 during this time.
In last few hours interim PM Abdelhamid Dbaibah has been ruled out of running for Presidency ❌
Saif Al Islam Gaddafi has also been barred from running this week ❌
Leaving only Khalifa Haftar ✅
Why is Dbeibah out?
At least 2 other candidates Aref Nayed & Fathi Bashagha filed against him based on disputed elections law.
The case?
Dbeibah pledged not to run when he took power & holds dual nationality (St Kitts)
So does Aref Nayed (Canada) & another Khalifa Haftar (US)
Why is Saif Al Islam ineligible?
In 2015 he was tried in absentia in connection to killings of civilians during Feb 17 uprising. Despite this, Saif has filed an appeal in court & issued a hand written statement asking his followers to collect their ballots.