Thread by @NCWeatherhound

All eyes (well, except for those following the GFS phantom doomsday storm in the Gulf) are on #91L this weekend. But down the road, that little yellow dot to its north may have a lot to say about things. Why? 1/x

The little dot (let's call it a lemon) will never be a threat, and likely won't even make tropical depression status. It's trying to develop in a region of dry air and shear -- sort of like FAMU vs. UNC or Duquesne vs. FSU last night, the odds are stacked against it. 2/x

Current moisture levels in that area are similar to what we see in October: PWATs below 1.25 inches and humidity that would feel refreshing to us -- but not to a system trying to develop. 3/x

So, why worry about the lemon? Because it sits in an important spot for the development of 91L, that red swath further south. As 91L moves WNW and develops, mid- and upper-level steering currents will determine its ultimate path. 4/x

Modeling currently projects a "wall" of high pressure north of 91L for the next several days. With this wall in place, the developing system has nowhere to go but to west and northwest -- not a good sign for the islands or us. 5/x

Any development by the lemon would help weaken that wall, and allow 91L to steer a bit further north -- if the storm is strong enough to sense that weakness. Right now, modeling sees some minor influence, but 91L is too disorganized to take the bait. 6/x

The result makes things much more interesting for the SE coast than we'd like. Most modeling still shows 91L (then Hurricane Danielle) finding a path north eventually ... but if the lemon were able to develop, we'd be spared the dramatics. Stay tuned!