Thread by @thefplbois

#GW5 – Voice of the Bois

In this week’s edition, we will cover –
- Teams to Target
- Keepers Delight
- Options in Defence
- Midfield Debate
- Forwards Headache
- Captaincy Debate

Likes & Retweets appreciated ♥️

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Do remember FPL is about correct decisions and they pay off in the long run. Having Salah as captain this Gameweek was the correct decision but the wrong outcome. His underlying stats were good as well. Always trust stats and eye test more than the outcomes.

Teams to Target

Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal are clearly the teams to target while picking players this GW based on data from @drafthound

United attack & Wolves defence are also good shouts while data suggests avoiding Newcastle & Villa!

Our point of view –

Manchester City have the best game this GW followed closely by Liverpool and Arsenal. Leeds play against an Everton defence who haven’t shown any promise. Spurs attackers should have a good game against West Ham too.

Keepers Delight

City still have the best xGC in the league. Palace scored 2 goals from an xG of just 0.2
We know the expectations are pretty high from City defence & hence the frustration but we will back Ederson & City once again to get a clean sheet against Nottingham Forest!

Arsenal are in Top 3 for xG conceded and have allowed the fewest shots from outside the box. Yes, this means that Ramsdale will get less save points this season but getting clean sheets is equally important. He is now up against a struggling Villa team who can’t find any form.

If you still haven’t sold Ward, sell him now. Leicester have conceded 10 goals which makes them the second worst side defensively. A 10 men Chelsea side managed to get 2 goals against them and have now managed to get their best defender too :P

Fulham away might be a tricky fixture for Brighton this Gameweek. We sense it to be a 1-1 type game as Fulham attack quite well at home. If you are looking to bring in Sanchez, we suggest you to wait for 1 more week before making that move (If it's Ward to Sanchez, then go ahead)

Options in Defence

As mentioned earlier, we expect City defence to reward their managers soon. JLingz showed some promise in that Nottingham side but tackling City defence is a different task altogether. We will hence be giving Cancelo one more week in our teams.

Trent finally rewarded the managers who were patient with him. He still ranks first amongst all defenders in terms of ICT (influence creativity threat) index and xGi. As expected, Liverpool improved defensively after the loss against United & should continue their form.

Wolves have been defending pretty well this season. They have changed their formation but that hasn’t affected their solidity a bit. They are 4th best in terms of xGC and have conceded only 4 goals so far. They now play a Bournemouth side and we are backing Ait-Nouri to do well.

Another City wingback who has been on the chopping blocks for a lot is Walker. City conceded an xG of just 0.11 in the last game and now play a Nottingham side who created 0 big chances against Spurs yesterday. Hold Walker for one more week.

Trippier plays against an in-form Liverpool attack who must be high on confidence. They conceded 3 goals against City and might do the same again this week. There are better options available at 5m range to look at amongst the defenders.

Managers looking for a 4.5m defender – Stay away from Henry and the Brentford defence for this week atleast as they play Palace away. Selhurst Park tends to be a very tough game for away teams and we feel Brentford will concede again (they have conceded in 3 out of 4 games)

Midfield Debate

KDB is top in terms of creativity amongst all midfielders. He ranks 1st with 3 assists & has created 5 big chances so far. KDB was one of the least rotated players last season and should start most games (can be subbed early). We back him to do well this GW.

Manchester United have looked fairly decent in the last 2 games. They now play against a Leicester side who have conceded 10 goals already and looked poor. 6 out of these 10 have been scored by a no. 9 from a central position – We would hence back Rashford to do well.

Gundogan was on the bench last week and is expected to start this one. He has 2 goals & 1 assist in 4 games played so far & his positioning allows him to play almost as a second striker at times. While he is not rotation proof but with wildcard due soon, we can take a punt on him

Eze has 14 points in his last 3 GWs (2 assists). He is always a threat on the pitch & is a good replacement (priced at 5.5 currently) for the managers who are stuck with the Baileys and Netos. Palace now face Brentford at home who have conceded 5 goals in 2 away games this season

Rodrigo has 4 goals in 4 games this season & is 3rd for xGi this season. We prefer him over other Leeds mids due to -
1. More secured 90 mins (others have been subbed in 3/4 games)
2. Has more penalty area touches
3. On penalties
4. More big chances involvement
5. 1st for shots

Bailey was benched yet again yesterday and even though he is a great player, he isn’t an option anymore in this fixture congestion. Mount now has only 5 points in last 3 GWs. With the price he is at, there are certainly better options to take advantage of in long term.

Forwards headache

Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored 51 goals in his last 57 starts for club & country since the beginning of last season. He already has 4 goals in 4 games this season & ranks 3rd in threat amongst all forwards & 2nd in terms of xG. He passes the eye test too ✅

Jesus had a quiet Gamewek 4 but we expect him to do well against a Villa side who tend to concede a lot from the rightish central area. Stevie G seems to have lost the plot and isn’t aware about his best team yet. We are backing Jesus again this week.

West Ham still haven't found the form of last season & look rusty (even after yesterday’s victory). They conceded 9 shots against a poor Villa side. Most of the chances were through the centre of the goal and with the form our main man is in, SIR HAROLD KANE will be feasting.

Villa are not in any kind of form at the moment and have managed only 3 goals in 4 games. They now face an Arsenal side who have been really solid defensively. Avoid Watkins again.

We see a lot of folks jumping on the Firmino train – We would be avoiding him for now. Nunez will be back for Gameweek 6 and so will Jota. There are better Liverpool assets to own with a better projected points per million. AVOID.

Captaincy Debate

Let’s see KDB's home PL record for Manchester City

Played - 105
Goals - 39
Assists - 62
Mins per attacking return - 80

KDB is 1st in ICT index amongst all midfielders & now plays a Nottingham side who have the worst xGC in the league. Time to back him again.

Salah captaincy was the right decision last week but bad outcome. He had the underlying numbers and should have scored atleast 2 goals. There was nothing to see in the Bournemouth game that will put us off the Egyptian king. We back him to do well against Newcastle.

Manchester City conceded 2 goals from a xG of 0.11 against Palace. They continue to show the best defensive stats in the league and now play a Nottingham side who haven’t shown anything positive so far. We think Cancelo can be a great captaincy option this week after a slow start

We would like to thank @BigManBakar, @drafthound and @FFScout for some of the stats/images that we used in our thread.

Thank you for reading. We hope you found this thread useful, and we wish you all the best for #GW5

Do look out for the Suggestions post that will be posted tomorrow evening and keep following and supporting us.

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