Thread by @DrAbbasKadhim

Ayatollah al-Haeri’s resignation from the marja’iya is not only a rare event, it is ill-timed & extremely dangerous.
Al-Haeri knows the consequences of his announcement to #Iraq. Otherwise, he is right to question his own fitness to remain as a marja’. (1)

To be sure, there is no reasonable urgent cause to make such an inflammatory announcement at this critical time. A second-tier marja’ like al-Haeri (84 years old), with no serious impediment to his daily life functions could wait for a calm time to make this move. (2)

Also, history of his peers, and the ones senior to them, show that they remained in their position until they died — many of them more advanced in age & in worse health conditions than him. (3)

It is obvious that his announcement, considering both its timing & phrasing, can be seen as being induced (or coerced) by the leaders of his country of residence, #Iran.
Here is my reasoning: 👇 (4)

Al-Haeri’s inclusion of the following inflammatory points was uncalled for:
1. Directing his emulators to follow Ayatollah Khamenei is not the usual practice of his counterparts, who normally leave the matter to people’s responsible choice.
2. Openly delegitimating al-Sadr. (5)

The first point above shows lack of courtesy to Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who is the leading Marja’ in #Iraq.
The second point further alienates al-Haeri’s target audience (the Sadrists), whose attachment to al-Sadr cannot be dissolved by a fatwa. (6)

It is worthy to note that al-Haeri has very limited following outside the Sadrist movement. His loss of the Sadrists has effectively expunged his entire influence henceforth. Therefore, his endorsement of another marja’ and all other final admonitions are obsolete. (7)

For the Sadrists, this is al-Haeri’s second strike; the first was in 2004 when he dissociated himself from Sadrists political actions. His resignation obviously made his last strike. Many of Sadrists already left al-Haeri back then. (8)

Al-Haeri maintained a base among young Sadrists who are not old enough to emulate Ayatollah M. Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr before he was assassinated by Saddam’s regime in Feb. 1999. For them#se youth, al-Haeri is followed in adherence to Sadr’s recommendation before he died. (9)

This brings up the question: who is now the new Sadrist marja’?
Well, it does not matter in the political sense. The Sadrists are not a religious movement in the narrow meaning. They are a political & a social movement whose marching orders from Sayid Muqtada al-Sadr. (10)

That said, for religious matters (worship & daily-life transactions) they can follow any marja’ they see proper, per each individual’s discretion. The resignation of al-Haeri or the termination of his marja’iya for any other reason was not going to alter the Sadrist path. (11)

Indeed, it is commonplace that all Shia mass movements are internally split on their individual emulation, while maintaining a unified discourse on the movement’s affiliation with a certain marja’, if such collective affiliation is announced. (12)

On his part, Sayid Muqtada al-Sadr released his own defiance to al-Haeri, announced his complete withdrawal from public life, sending a message to all concerned that they are on their own in facing the angry masses on the streets. (13)

If the crisis is not defused by the system’s internal devices, expect a statement from the Shia highest authority in Najaf (G Ayatollah Sistani), who is the last resort for Iraq.
One limitation may be carefully considered: Sadrists must hear from Sadr to heed Sistani’s call. (14)

👇Takeaway:
If al-Haeri’s absence from the scene caused such turmoil, this is a minor league level compared with the scenarios outlined in this 2019 paper I coauthored with @barbaraslavin1, which is relevant now and so will be for quite sometime to come.

atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-resea…