Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #pt

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Using an #America-centric lens to criticize #Turkey for making national security judgements based on a #Turkey-centric lens is analytically dubious.

Whether we like it or not, #Turkey has fought a 40-year #PKK insurgency & sees the #PKK as its No.1 national security threat.
#pt: And FWIW, using Aldar Khalil as the sole source to claim that the #PYD-#PKK relationship is solely defined by "intellectual lineage" & 'sympathy with one another's political goals' is analytically disingenuous.

Perhaps instead read the #PYD itself:

#pt: If the #PYD's very own website (deleted - but archived - after teaming up with the U.S. military in 2014) wasn't enough, take the public assessments of U.S. government's dedicated National CounterTerrorism Center (part of the Intelligence Community):

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☑️ Rijden over de snelweg
☑️ Rijden over de vluchtstrook
☑️ Onnodig geluid produceren
☑️ Openlijk geweld
☑️ Vandalisme
Het telt aardig op zo, qua boetes, overtredingen en strafbare feiten. #boerenprotesten
🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🔊🔊🔊 🎆🎇🚀

We tellen gewoon door:
☑️ Vuurwerk afsteken.

We tellen door:
☑️Rijden over de snelweg
☑️Rijden over de vluchtstrook
☑️Onnodig geluid produceren
☑️Openlijk geweld
☑️Vuurwerk afsteken.
☑️Verbod negeren / afspraken met @Politie schenden… #boerenprotest
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That “1000” is, roughly, the entire US presence in #Syria.

What does “northern #Syria” mean? Are they being drawn down to Deir ez Zour? Are we seeing an Arab-focused last chance strategy in slow formation?
The U.S. withdrawal from #Syria is underway, as directed overnight by #Trump & supported by @DeptofDefense.

As I wrote a few days ago, opening the doors to #Turkey put the writing on the wall.

- "Making America Great Again” has never sounded so vapid."…
@DeptofDefense HUGE developments in north #Syria, as the #SDF agrees a de facto surrender deal w. the #Assad regime, in return for a #Russia-backed #SAA move to block #Turkey's advances.

Looks like #Manbij, #Kobani, #Qamishli & possibly #Raqqa are all included in this agreement.

#SAA moving.
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1/ Dag 4 Turkse operatie, dag 3 dat ik in NO-Syrie ben.

Syrie's minderheden aan Turkse grens in doodsangst. Ik bezocht cluster van Christelijke, Koerdische en Yazidi dorpen nabij Qamishli in N-Syrie. Mensen zitten angstig thuis te wachten op wat komen gaat, Turkse tanks op 3km.
2/ Panoramafoto die ik maakte in Assyrisch dorpje Maharkan in N-Syrie, geeft redelijk beeld hoe dichtbij de Turkse grens is. Rechts de kerk van het dorpje (14 huizen, 62 inwoners), links op de achtergrond de Turkse grensmuur, op heuvel staan Turkse militaire voertuigen.
3/ Bezocht ook Assyrisch gehucht, Khuwaytilah Tahtani, vlakbij grens Turkije. Was nog behoorlijk gedoe, want Turkse leger beschoot net de weg. Uiteindelijk reed 'n aardige Arabische gozer me achterop z'n brommer naar het dorpje. Bewoners bang maar trots lieten ze hun kerkje zien.
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@martingeddes Not only the tales about Troy and Odysseus but also those about the garden of Eden, Noah and Moses are situated in or near The Netherlands.……
@martingeddes (Continued #pt) More about Eelco de Boer's theory on the geography of the works of Homer and the Bible.
@martingeddes According to Saxon legends, Noah stranded with his ark on the cliffs of the Isterberg, which must have been on the North Sea at that time. It is now in Germany, about 5 km east of the border with The Netherlands.…
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Trump's proposed concessions to Turkey:
–$100 billion trade deal
–a solution to a ban on Turkey’s contributions to & purchases of the F-35
–a White House visit

In return, US asked for a safe zone in NE Syria.

Erdoğan refused, and Trump capitulated.…
#pt This is what the National Security Council official who heard the call meant when he said “Trump was rolled … he was definitely out-negotiated" by Erdoğan ... The president has no spine."…
French President @EmmanuelMacron met on Tuesday with the spokeswoman for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (#SDF), to express #France's solidarity with them in their fight against ISIS #twitterkurds…
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I've made my thoughts clear on how *bad* #Trump's decisions have been for #Syria policy (& the #SDF).

But let's just get something straight:

- The U.S. knowingly decided to ally with a designated terrorist organization (the #PYD/#YPG) in 2014 to fight #ISIS in #Kobani & beyond.
#pt: The State Dept, NCTC & CIA all viewed the #PYD as the #PKK's #Syria affiliate in 2013 -- that's in public documents.

That label was [quietly] removed in 2014.

In #Turkey - a #NATO state, whether we like it or not - the #PKK is viewed as *the* existential security threat.
#pt: #Turkey was complicit in terrible #Syria border control & ties to #Nusra. No doubt.

But put that aside for minute:

Imagine if a foreign state brought #ISIS to #Mexico & armed it to fight cartels, while assuring #Washington: "don't worry, they're only interested in Mexico."
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Just spoke to a friend in #Najaf. Protesters heading to the old city (shrine) and airport. Governorate building has been stormed, Hikma and Dawa Party offices attacked. Gunfire can be heared as security forces attempt to disperse the crowds. Chaotic, frightening situation. #Iraq
There is no doubt that the vast majority of peaceful protesters have legitimate grievances against government corruption but the chaos unfolding on the streets in Baghdad and the South also provides opportunities for those with far more sinister agendas to exploit. #IraqProtests
Snr gov't official I spoke to questioned why protesters would attack lighting grids in central Baghdad and make it even harder for the security forces to see what's going on in the dark. When maintenance crews are dispatched to restore power, they are attacked too. #IraqProtests
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Isnt it possible some of the 5 might want to testify? like the Ambassador removed from post early because Giuliani & Don Jr smeared her?
and at least one of the five, Kurt Volker, no longer works for the US government. I am not sure what Amb. Yovanovich’s status is
What guidance/advice does the committee give the individuals asked to testify, now that Pompeo pressuring them not to appear?
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The #Abqaiq oil processing facility has been targeted multiple times in the past, from Al Qaida in 2006 to foiled plot in May 2019 and now with #drones. Strikes against oil infrastructure can have massive economic and #environmental consequences.
#PT at the #Abqaiq processing facility, 6.8 million barrels of crude oil are processed on a daily basis. Saudis claim the fire is now under control. The base is at least 1000km away from Houthi controlled area, so their likely #drone of choice is the UAV-X
Massive smoke plume visible with @NASAEarth view on September 14, 2019 coming from the #Abqaiq oil processing facility and nearby locations in #SaudiArabia that was hit by Houthis with #drones
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Trump admin spending bizarre amount of bandwidth on a ship of oil. It seems ineffective—maybe not meant effective?
not meant *to be* effective #pt
Maybe meant to distract (themselves?) from fact Iran behavior gotten worse on every front in response to their policy?
Read 3 tweets
US designates Jamal Trust bank, 26th largest bank in Lebanon, but what a US official called “Hezbollah’s bank of choice”
Jammal Trust, corrected spelling in #pt
US officials stressed several times in call on the designations that US continues to have positive relationship w Central Bank of Lebanon
Read 3 tweets
Here we go again: another all-physicians-all-the-time article from @ginakolata @nytimes, this time about the tragic El Paso shooting. "Surgeons operated." Singlehandedly? Why overlook #nurses who are college-educated science professionals who save lives?…
"Dr. Weber stabilized patients as they came in." All by herself? Do @ginakolata @nytimes really think stabilization happens without #nurses? #Nurses do surveillance looking for signs of deterioration 24/7 so they can take action, turn around declining patients and stabilize them.
"Members of the medical staff were arriving [including] four general surgeons, a cardiac vascular surgeon, three orthopedic surgeons and three surgeons... as well as the housekeeping staff" @ginakolata @nytimes That's it? This large rescue would not be possible without #nurses
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Amid the ongoing conflict in NW #Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (#HTS) continues to evolve in intriguing ways - into a more politically mature & intelligent jihadist movement.

It's current leadership clearly seeks to position itself somewhere between #MuslimBrotherhood & #AlQaeda.
There's now little question that #HTS no longer represents #AlQaeda.

It's clearly still an extremist movement, but signs continue to add up indicating that it's developing into something qualitatively different than the Jabhat al-Nusra of 2014-15 - a "Shami #Taliban," perhaps.
Most recently in the public space, #HTS issued a statement acknowledging its willingness to abide by an externally-negotiated (by #Turkey, #Iran & #Russia) ceasefire.

That was a first.

Its never happened before in #Syria & it's not a move any #AlQaeda affiliate would ever take.
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here’s thing find puzzling abt lindsey graham saying will propose 123 agreements across mideast (minus Israel) to Iran, assuming 1/
Iran will say no. Then, Graham told the daily beast, the europeans will have to get on board. Really? E3 +EU are in jcpoa. why would they 2/
pivot to Graham’s plan? Because it would be lucrative for Jack Keane & IP3? It does not seem like a serious plan. 3/
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Official spokesperson for India's Ministry of External Affairs.

Spoiler alert: Trump lied. cc @ddale8
#pt Trump claims that #India Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked him to serve as mediate between India and Pakistan on the Kashmir conflict – a falsehood immediately refuted by the Indian government. (h/t @atrupar)
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Bancos #Bradesco, #Safra, #BTGPactual, #Itaú Unibanco e #BancoDoBrasil “doaram” R$50 milhões ao #PT em troca de favores. #LulaPreso…
Os bancos receberam informações privilegiadas que incluíram antecipação de mudanças na taxa básica de juros, a #Selic — quem informava era o próprio #Palocci e, depois, seu sucessor #GuidoMantega #PT. Entre os que eram informados, Bradesco e BTG Pactual. #LulaPreso #DilmaPresa
Vantagens indevidas pagas pelo #suborno foram de todo tipo. A pedido de #LulaPreso p.ex. O #BNDES fez uma injeção atípica de R$ 2,4 bilhões na #AracruzCelulose, beneficiando o grupo #Safra, para viabilizar a compra da empresa pelo #Votorantim por R$ 2,7 bi. #DilmaPresa
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Next meeting of the Joint Commission overseeing implementation of #Iran nuclear deal will be held July 25, at the political director level
per official. Told it is still not expected that any member yet plans to trigger the dispute resolution mechanism 2/
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#Italy police raid of neo-Nazi group linked to Donbass #Ukraine separatists uncovers huge stash of automatic weapons and a surface-to-air missile (!!).

Among the 3 arrested: Fabio Del Bergiolo, a former border security inspector and Senate candidate…
#pt Correction: air-to-air missile, not a SAM.

#Italy seizes 'combat-ready' missile and other advanced weapons during raids on neo-fascist extremist groups, as part of an investigation into Italian far-right help for Russian-backed separatists in #Ukraine…
Police in northern #Italy detained 3 suspects, including one linked to neo-fascist Italian political party #ForzaNuova, after uncovering a large stash of automatic weapons, an air-to-air missile and material featuring Nazi symbols
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Senior US officials have told me they'd only consider taking the risk of breaking #Russia's air-ban on NW #Syria on 2 conditions:

a) A senior AQ figure emerged as clear target
b) External attack plotting was detected.

I'd treat these "US strike" reports w. some caution for now.
According to well-placed sources in NW #Syria, Huras al-Din figures have on [at least] several occasions raised the importance of re-asserting attention on attacking the West from #Idlib/#Aleppo.

That's a very unpopular proposition, so raising it speaks volumes re. confidence.
Overnight, @CENTCOM confirmed yesterday's strike on #AlQaeda's Huras al-Din in western #Aleppo.

Their reasoning confirms one of the two conditions U.S. officials had previously told me they'd need to break #Russia's air ban over NW #Syria: "plotting external attacks..."
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So ...

■ Obama never would do anything to hinder #Iran, let alone strike directly

■ Even on PJW's terms, Trump can hardly claim credit for sparing people from orders he gave, BUT

■ Trump never gave orders to attack; this is messaging in search of a summit and "better deal"
DoD prepared contingencies for strikes on #Iran, and Trump turned them down when asked for approval.

Some officials got the impression on the day Trump supported strikes, but in the middle of that day he also said Iran's attack could be an "accident".…
Note: nothing got past the planning stage.

Trump never gave an order to attack #Iran that was revoked.

The administration's spinning it that way in the aftermath via the controlled leak is part of the attempt to gain leverage without actually doing anything to get to new talks.
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Feierabend de luxe: Mitten im Gewitter zwischen zwei Bahnhöfen in der #S3 feststecken, weil der Zug über einen Stromabnehmer gefahren ist — wir warten jetzt auf Feuerwehr und „Notfallmanager“.

Melde mich wieder, wenn erste Fälle von Kannibalismus auftreten.

(2) Eine S-Bahn ist doch ein Faradayscher Käfig, oder?

(3) Wenn es weiter so regnet, koennen wir aus unserer festsitzenden S-Bahn Flaschenpost werfen.

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THREAD: possible scenario of upcoming #SAA operation to seize strategic #Kabani region from Al-Qaeda affiliates' can be subdivided into 4 phases:

1️⃣ Isolate Jabal Zuwayqat south slope
2️⃣ Seize Zuwayqat summits
3️⃣ Seize Zuwayqat hamlet & ridge 1120
4️⃣ Seize Kabani & Barzah summit
PHASE 1️⃣ Firstly, #SAA will (continue) attempts to capture points 1110 & 1115 respectively to isolate/fire-control southern perimeter of Jabal Zuwayqat [incl point 1097] & use environment of point 1110 as base to climb onto the ~1150 meter high mountain.
PHASE 2️⃣ After mobilizing at southern gates of Jabal Zuwayqat, #SAA will secure the western slope [average ~30%] & climb the forward slope [average ~13%] to capture summits of Jabal Zuwayqat [1148 subsequently 1150] via at least 4 unpaved trajectories through forests ...
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“I tell the truth about Iraq. I say the war was a disaster. We spent $2TN. Lost 1000s of lives...We should have never been there” 1/
“It was a horrible mistake. We should have never been there...It's 1 of the worst decisions in the history of the country.” 2/
“We have totally destabilized the Middle East. I predicted that was going to happen. B/c when you knock down the 1 power, the other power 3/
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