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Aug 30 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
This is one of the key indicators I have been looking for that Russian Artillery has "hit the wall" in terms lacking logistical capability to go on.

Barrel liners have to be replaced regularly or you destroy the artillery barrels.

(H/T @ChuckPfarrer )

1/7
I've mentioned that in earlier threads here:

2/7
And here:


3/7
This is the kind of failure that is directly in keeping with the Nadin Brzezinski Medium column on the hollowing out of the Russian artillery arm via corruption in artillery barrel metallurgy, among other issues.

4/7
 nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-coll…
Given the reports that the Russian troops in Southern Ukraine are still in their Feb 2022 winter uniforms - because the summer ones were never issued - the chances they have gotten replacement artillery barrel liners in Kherson Oblast are nil.

5/7
Not with all the artillery firepower Russian used in Donbass in April/May/June 2022 and the "HIMARS Summer" Russian logistics has suffered in July/August 2022.

The 1st place we should be seeing catastrophic Russian artillery barrel failure, in Kherson, is now exhibiting it.

6/7
If the Cold War gray beards I correspond with are correct about the level of corruption in Russian artillery barrel reserves.

There will be a lot more burst/melted Russian artillery barrels soon.😃

7/7
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 1
I am going to use this @wartranslated retweet to set up another casualty logistics🧵 to highlight what is going on during the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson.

Regarding @wartranslated Russian MoD leaked 50k dead number, that seems believable to me.

1/
Strategypage.com is reporting the Russians casualty ratio is about 2 wounded for each soldier killed in combat.

This ratio is based on Ukrainian analysis of Russian Army cell phone, radio, texting & internet traffic.

2/
 strategypage.com/htmw/htart/art…
I've talked about casualty ratios & medevac logistics repeatedly since 24 Feb 2022.

This earlier tweet of mine is the heart of the issue as far as medium intensity warfare casualty ratios are concerned.

3/
Read 19 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 1
@UAWeapons has a real point here vis-a-vis the TB2.

The idea of "Anti-Access Area Denial" (A2AD) works both ways.

Ukraine is using US GMLRS & HIMARS missiles to push Russian high altitude SAM systems like Buk, S-300 & S-400 over 100km from the #Kherson front lines.
1/
When you do that and punch the relevant numbers into a radar horizon calculator.

It shows Ukraine created a ~1,200 feet of altitude "safe operating zone" below the ability of a long range radar directed SAMs to engage over #Kherson front lines.

translatorscafe.com/unit-converter…

2/ Image
Theoretically this makes a TB2 easy meat for a Russian shoulder fired SAM.

But said Russian shoulder fired SAM has to have a night sight to get TB2's after the sun goes down, or replacement batteries if they do have a night sight.
3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 30
HIMARS, RuAF Logistics & UAF fire support🧵

The two biggest logistical items for a mech force by tonnage are artillery ammo & fuel. The mix depends on the operation. Moving needs fuel. Static operations require more shells.

Ukraine has reduced Russian Army Kherson supplies
1/
...to ~20% for 2 weeks by bridge attacks.

Russian tanks & AFV's don't have an auxiliary power unit - a small fuel efficient engine-generator - to run for recharging their batteries.

This means Russians have to run their engines a few times a day to recharge the batteries.
2/
Any tank or armored fighting vehicle is filled with multiple radios & electronics for the night vision sensors, gun/missile aiming systems and fire control computer.

All of these taken together pull a lot of power and will drain the vehicle's batteries quickly.
3/
Read 23 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 30
This Kherson City video from the @emilkastehelmi Ukraine offensive thread has me going🤨🤔

My take is we are seeing Ukrainian Special Forces & Partisans striking Russian soft/logistical targets to spread fear uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in the Russian Army chain of command.
1/5
Top down command structures tend to be brittle under pressure & take longer to recover from the shock of such attacks than armies with more local initiative at lower command levels, barring a really energetic & skilled top-down flag rank commander.

2/5
Historically, Authoritarian/Totalitarian regimes are low on such generals because they are a political threat to the ruling elite in peacetime.

Prolonged wars allow people like the Soviet Union's General Zhukov to appear in such regimes, but it is a process that takes years.
3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 26
In this Antonivka bridge GMLRS strike video, pay attention to the water splashes left, the cadence and repeatability of the strike, as well as the dust/debris between the bridge roadway and the river.

1/
Now watch this US Army program manager video of GMLRS Alternative Warhead missile tests.

The size of the GMLRS blasts and their sounds -- over the rock music background -- match what you are hearing on the @EuromaidanPress Tweet video.

2/
Most GMLRS used on the Antonivka bridge were likely standard blast as opposed to 'Alternative Warhead' fragmentation missiles, but the amount of explosive and the resulting sound/blast/smoke will be very close to the test video when viewed from a distance.
3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 26
This appears to be an important piece of video evidence as to the ongoing collapse of Russian artillery tactical truck logistics inside Ukraine.
Logistical🧵

These are Russian 122mm artillery shells that are simply being dumped out the side of a civilian vehicle into the dirt
1/
This @HN_Schlottman tweet shows you how a 122mm round is properly packaged, two to a 80-85 kg box with two propellent charges and two fuzes.

2/
This @HN_Schlottman tweet gives you the dimensions & weights for Russian 152mm & 122mm properly packaged shell wooden box containers

3/
Read 7 tweets

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