Unbelievable. Mary Peltola (D) has flipped the Republican-held congressional seat in #AKAL in round 2 of ranked-choice voting, netting 51.47% to Sarah Palin's 48.53%.
Peltola got 40.20% in the first round against Begich/Palin, which was just ~2.5% shy of Biden's 2020 vote share.
We all knew a while back that this was a very distinct possibility, but I am in absolute shock that this happened still. Alaska has sent a Democrat to this seat for this first time in 50 years, and it's happened when a *Democrat* was in the White House.
The biggest congratulations go here to @MaryPeltola for running a hell of a campaign, but let's make sure to give @GalenMetzger1, @Thorongil16, and especially @IvanMoore1 a huge, huge round of applause for their work here.
@MaryPeltola@GalenMetzger1@Thorongil16@IvanMoore1 Ivan polled this a while back and was the first to see that this was a very, very clear possibility. Galen and Armin were the two that were running calculation after calculation to show that Peltola had a great chance at winning when everyone said Palin would take it in round 2.
@MaryPeltola@GalenMetzger1@Thorongil16@IvanMoore1 Seriously, if you're not already following these three people, you've got to do it. You're missing out on hearing from three of the sharpest minds on this website. Just incredible work done in projecting the results of a voting system that's mostly new to America.
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On the surface, this makes sense in that polls currently indicate a close-ish race and NH is a Biden +7 state.
Two problems, though, that SLF will hope don't manifest: Hassan is an exceptionally strong incumbent, and Don Bolduc makes Blake Masters look like a god-tier candidate.
Don Bolduc is actually insane. I'm talking Sarah Palin levels of ridiculous -- he calls Chris Sununu a communist sympathizer. He's got a long way to pivot and a lot of ground to cover in a very short amount of time if he wants to close the gap here.
SLF's strategy is simple: hope that nobody finds out about Bolduc and hope that they hit Hassan hard enough to where people just decide to vote against her, not knowing who Bolduc is. I'm not sure that works against an incumbent in a state as small/weird as NH. Let's see.
Democrats flipping Alaska's House seat says more about Palin's unpopularity than anything, but it's also somewhat difficult to envision Peltola getting the turnout needed to net 40.2% of first-place votes if this were April 2022, especially considering Biden only got 42.8%.
The real lesson here is that candidate quality matters a *lot*. Palin's unfavorables are ghastly and you'd normally struggle to win an election for dogcatcher with those numbers. Meanwhile, Peltola is a perfect candidate for that seat. But multiple things can be true at once.
Also, well...I'm just going to say that Republicans haven't really done the best job in selecting candidates in some of their key Senate races (Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, and PA come to mind). Alaska is different for a host of reasons, but the broad lesson is that candidates matter
@SplitTicket_ Of course, people could be wrong (and why it's Lean D, not safe). You may remember 2020, when this was the consensus and then every poll overshot Kelly's margin. But folks can only make decisions on resource allocation based on data they have, and Kelly is up by a fair amount.
@SplitTicket_ If you're Mitch McConnell and you see internals from *your own side* saying Tim Ryan is up by 4, do you (a) hold your fire in Ohio and continue spending in AZ to reverse a Kelly +8 lead? Or do you punt and then try to save Ohio?
Women are ~20 points more Democratic than men are, but this gap didn't really exist until the Reagan GOP ran with the anti-Equal Rights Amendment tilt in 1980.
@dhaaruni@SplitTicket_ It's worth pointing out that when candidates make horrific gaffes like Akin and his "legitimate rape" comment in Missouri, the blowback is usually concentrated among women (surprise!). McCaskill got 58% among women, 51% with men. Obama got 45% with women, 43% with men.
@dhaaruni@SplitTicket_ Similarly, when you look at data from @tbonier and @TargetSmart, the post-Dobbs picture of increased enthusiasm among women becomes quite clear. Unsurprisingly, when one group feels that a right of theirs is threatened, they react strongly against the party they hold responsible.
A pretty cool milestone: @SplitTicket_ just hit 100K views this year, and it's just August!
I know we say this a lot, but for an outlet that was just created in a space full of political sites, it's really quite surreal. Thank you to everyone for supporting and reading us!
@SplitTicket_ We're at 105K views in only 8 months this year. None of this would be possible without everyone reading our articles, giving us feedback, joining our spaces, or RT'ing us. And a special thanks especially to the following...
In April, I wrote a piece for @SplitTicket_ discussing why any Biden approval rebound would have to mainly be centered around pulling independents back in.
Gallup's August poll has Biden going from 78% to 81% with Dems, but 31 to 40 with independents
@SplitTicket_ It is important to note that as much as Biden's big-ticket legislation appears to have helped Democrats generate enthusiasm within the fold, the bigger reason for his overall approval bounce *at the moment* really does seem to be because independents approve of him more. Why?
@SplitTicket_ I have some hypotheses, but no concrete answers.
Firstly, the economic conditions improved. Inflation is declining, as are gas prices, but job growth remains high.
Secondly, the legislation passed is quite popular, and this significantly helps perceptions of competency.