Andy πŸ•πŸ”οΈ Profile picture
Sep 1, 2022 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 3 min read β€’ Read on X
I’m signing off for a while, friends πŸ‘‹

The #Fintwit gods are good are presented me with an opportunity that deserves my full attention πŸ€“

Feel free to email me, bizalmanac@gmail.com πŸ“₯

Y’all know I love it here, and probably too much. Some thoughts on #Fintwit below πŸ’œ

(1/6)
This website is dripping with ideas. Value, growth, quality, international, special sits, microcap, REPE, REITs, technical analysis, crypto, energy, SAAS, SMIDs, dividend growth, income πŸ’§

What used to happen on VIC, G&D, Sumzero and idea dinners now happens here

(2/6)
The amount of skilled and talented investors, professionals and hobbyists, hanging out here is vast. If you share with the community, publicly or privately, you surely will receive back equal or more in models, notes and thoughts from many smart folks, often in DMs 🀝

(3/6)
If you’re young and/or looking to improve or for a job, share on fintwit. If you want to sharpen a thesis or identify bear cases, share the bull case on fintwit. If you want new ideas…you get the idea! πŸ’‘

(4/6)
But it ain’t all good..

Noise overwhelms signal.

Even for accounts with high signal to noise ratio, you have to suffer through a lot of gif volleying, politrix, shitposting etc. 🫡

(5/6)
Latest tweets instead of home, blocking, muting accounts and keywords all help but only to a degree.

Twitter is a constant exercise in improving and optimizing your feed and is not for the faint of heart πŸƒβ€β™‚οΈ

(6/6)
Lasted almost a month

And I recently shared two snack-bite sized blog posts:

$WSO - Carrier's Gift
bizalmanac.substack.com/p/carriers-gift

$POOL - Out of the Blue
bizalmanac.substack.com/p/out-of-the-b…
Another snack sized blog post about one of my industrial businesses, this time detailing ODFL's real estate investments

$ODFL

πŸš›πŸš›πŸš›

bizalmanac.substack.com/p/land-grab?sd…

β€’ β€’ β€’

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
γ€€

Keep Current with Andy πŸ•πŸ”οΈ

Andy πŸ•πŸ”οΈ Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @bizalmanac

Oct 9, 2024
There are some very smart Apollo longs on this site. I am not one of them. I am fascinated by the business though. Rare ingredients:

Founding CEO Black leaves under dark cloud re. Epstein. Co-founder Rowan takes over and merges APO with Athene

(1/x)
Athene is an annuity business that Apollo created in 2009, was public but controlled until 01/2022 when it merged into APO

Now APO is a (1) pure-plays alts business focused on credit (2) an annuity business, Athene (3) and a capital markets business...
Maybe most interesting though is that Athene now boasts 16 different origination platforms that create the assets to match against the annuity liabilities.

Actually more, allowing Athene to sell those assets to other insurers, among other fee generating activities, naturally Image
Read 8 tweets
May 18, 2024
I collected my thoughts on Couche-Tard, unpacking their M&A activity as a whole, a few of their big deals as well as a few significant KPIs / financial metrics

The result wasn't as rosy I expected,

(1/10) Image
You can't overstate how impressive Couche-Tard's M&A program has been over the past decade and change

over 12,000 stores bought across over 100 deals, across three continents, all paid for in cash

(2/10) Image
But, the vast majority of spend is concentrated on 'big deals'; I show nine below and unpack three of them in the post

Couche-Tard's post close motion is intricate, from selling off assets, achieving cost synergies throughout the P&L, improving debt stacks, etc.

(3/10) Image
Read 10 tweets
Jun 30, 2023
My favorite way to measure a business: divide incremental CFO by investments over long periods. Shows cash on cash return.

I'm a year behind with ATD, haven't updated to their most recently ended FY.
If a business uses shares to fund their investments, then that cost must be reflected as well.

Below, I show DND's CFROIIC from FY19 - FY22, excluding $155mm spent on TM Group.

I 'dilute' the return by the inverse of 1.8x, the amount DND grew their share count to fund acq.
There's more to sort through though.

DND is buying software businesses, whereas ATD is buying gas stations.

Software likely has a much longer return stream, both on the top line as well as lesser maintenance capex needs

So cash / cash returns understate software near term
Read 4 tweets
Mar 30, 2023
Something I've been tinkering with for a few months,

A Better Combined Ratio - Thoughts on Owning Constellation Software

(1/6)

bizalmanac.substack.com/p/a-better-com…
I can feel the boos coming in now. Not another Constellation write-up! Not another Mark Leonard fanboi!

I agree.

The world doesn’t need another Constellation write-up nor does Leonard need or want mine or anyone’s adoration. He wants his stock price to go down

(2/6)
But I wrote this for myself. I’ve been fascinated with Constellation since I first came across Leonard’s letters almost 10 years ago, which I found in my early days lurking around #fintwit incidentally

(3/6)
Read 8 tweets
Mar 15, 2022
Not a lot of business with right-side skew like this

$BUR go BRRR, from their 2H 2021 Report

95% ROIC, $845 / $893, and 30% IRRs since inception on their own money Image
Some highlights from Burford's 11/2/2021 Investor Day:

burfordcapital.com/media/2376/inv…
Cash bridge since inception. Litigation finance is an asset light business; requiring only 1.65B in equity and debt resulting in 2.7B in cash receipts so far Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 27, 2022
I'm leaving a partially completed $PX write-up on the cutting room floor as I found a better subject for my next blog post

PX high-quality and young business I recently built a position in

I am happy to share one section, In Defense of Funds of Funds, below.
Unlike many alternative asset managers who invest directly into operating businesses; 2/3 of P10’s investment vehicles are fund-of-funds, investing their LPs capital into private equity funds in the case of RCP and venture capital funds in the case of TrueBridge.

(1/14)
Many market participants scoff at funds of funds judging them as unnecessary middlemen. I disagree and see funds-of-funds as necessary for many investors to achieve their desired exposures and returns.

(2/14)
Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(