Andy πŸ•πŸ”οΈ Profile picture
Sep 1, 2022 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 3 min read β€’ Read on X
I’m signing off for a while, friends πŸ‘‹

The #Fintwit gods are good are presented me with an opportunity that deserves my full attention πŸ€“

Feel free to email me, bizalmanac@gmail.com πŸ“₯

Y’all know I love it here, and probably too much. Some thoughts on #Fintwit below πŸ’œ

(1/6)
This website is dripping with ideas. Value, growth, quality, international, special sits, microcap, REPE, REITs, technical analysis, crypto, energy, SAAS, SMIDs, dividend growth, income πŸ’§

What used to happen on VIC, G&D, Sumzero and idea dinners now happens here

(2/6)
The amount of skilled and talented investors, professionals and hobbyists, hanging out here is vast. If you share with the community, publicly or privately, you surely will receive back equal or more in models, notes and thoughts from many smart folks, often in DMs 🀝

(3/6)
If you’re young and/or looking to improve or for a job, share on fintwit. If you want to sharpen a thesis or identify bear cases, share the bull case on fintwit. If you want new ideas…you get the idea! πŸ’‘

(4/6)
But it ain’t all good..

Noise overwhelms signal.

Even for accounts with high signal to noise ratio, you have to suffer through a lot of gif volleying, politrix, shitposting etc. 🫡

(5/6)
Latest tweets instead of home, blocking, muting accounts and keywords all help but only to a degree.

Twitter is a constant exercise in improving and optimizing your feed and is not for the faint of heart πŸƒβ€β™‚οΈ

(6/6)
Lasted almost a month

And I recently shared two snack-bite sized blog posts:

$WSO - Carrier's Gift
bizalmanac.substack.com/p/carriers-gift

$POOL - Out of the Blue
bizalmanac.substack.com/p/out-of-the-b…
Another snack sized blog post about one of my industrial businesses, this time detailing ODFL's real estate investments

$ODFL

πŸš›πŸš›πŸš›

bizalmanac.substack.com/p/land-grab?sd…

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More from @bizalmanac

Jun 30, 2023
My favorite way to measure a business: divide incremental CFO by investments over long periods. Shows cash on cash return.

I'm a year behind with ATD, haven't updated to their most recently ended FY.
If a business uses shares to fund their investments, then that cost must be reflected as well.

Below, I show DND's CFROIIC from FY19 - FY22, excluding $155mm spent on TM Group.

I 'dilute' the return by the inverse of 1.8x, the amount DND grew their share count to fund acq.
There's more to sort through though.

DND is buying software businesses, whereas ATD is buying gas stations.

Software likely has a much longer return stream, both on the top line as well as lesser maintenance capex needs

So cash / cash returns understate software near term
Read 4 tweets
Mar 15, 2022
Not a lot of business with right-side skew like this

$BUR go BRRR, from their 2H 2021 Report

95% ROIC, $845 / $893, and 30% IRRs since inception on their own money Image
Some highlights from Burford's 11/2/2021 Investor Day:

burfordcapital.com/media/2376/inv…
Cash bridge since inception. Litigation finance is an asset light business; requiring only 1.65B in equity and debt resulting in 2.7B in cash receipts so far Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 27, 2022
I'm leaving a partially completed $PX write-up on the cutting room floor as I found a better subject for my next blog post

PX high-quality and young business I recently built a position in

I am happy to share one section, In Defense of Funds of Funds, below.
Unlike many alternative asset managers who invest directly into operating businesses; 2/3 of P10’s investment vehicles are fund-of-funds, investing their LPs capital into private equity funds in the case of RCP and venture capital funds in the case of TrueBridge.

(1/14)
Many market participants scoff at funds of funds judging them as unnecessary middlemen. I disagree and see funds-of-funds as necessary for many investors to achieve their desired exposures and returns.

(2/14)
Read 16 tweets
Aug 25, 2021
Winning the Lottery, Losing it All, Starting Again

A quick tour of my 10 years working in the investment industry

It ends with me quitting my dream job and resetting my career and life about 1 year ago

Just writing off the dome, hope you enjoy

(1/x)
I graduated college in 2010 with no idea about investing, but a knack for numbers and degrees in math, history and business

I applied to about 100 jobs loosely related to investing, had a handful of interviews, many of which I had no idea what they were talking about

(2/x)
But I hit it off with the president of a fund of hedge funds and impressed her enough to be given an opportunity to intern there at the end of my senior year

I accepted (else I would have been homeless?) and then accepted a full time offer a few months later

(3/x)
Read 51 tweets
Aug 24, 2021
Here's an updated watchlist with some context and commentary;

The initial inspiration came a few jobs (and lifetimes) ago when I was an allocator and one of our managers explained their idea funnel:

Investable universe β†’ Watchlist β†’ Portfolio

(1/12)
It's simple but there is beauty in simplicity

Each step forces tough decisions;

Initially, do I look internationally? do I have size constraints? etc.

Next, what are qualities I seek in businesses?

These are static for years and thus good candidates for watchlist

(2/12)
The three qualities I demand are:

- Growth, often top-line growth but market share growth works too!

- Quality - an obviously dominant position in an attractive industry (often reflected via ROA / ROIC)

- Owner-Operators - uniquely capable and heavily invested mgmt.

(3/12)
Read 12 tweets
Aug 12, 2021
Inspired by @bluff_capital, here's about 50% of my portfolio:

- $AMZN - Customer for 22 years, The Everything Store opened my eyes to it, invested right after Brexit

- $LBRDA, h/t to #Fintwit, esp. @FrancoOlivera and @willis_cap

- $PGR, h/t @FocusedCompound, $GEOFF

(1/x)
- $ODFL, stumbled into on my own, love @vanckzhu explanation

- $CNSWF, invested after reading ML's President Letter's in my mid-20s, still have my $TOITF dividend, haven't added, but expect to over the years

- $PAR, I know Brink from having owned / operated restaurants,

(2/x)
followed @SavneetS since @coventurevc and invested immediately after reading his investor letter

Another 30-35% of the portfolio is spread across 7 names

And the balance are about 14 'tracker positions' (1-2% at cost) that I use to bet on stuff

(3/x)
Read 6 tweets

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