Thread by @Miller4Students

Thread: @JeffcoSchoolsCo is closing 16 elementary schools. More closures will be needed if we can't stem enrollment declines. Some believe these are due to falling birthrates. The data say this is only part of the story... #edcolo #Jeffco #copolitics #edpolicy #suptchat #k12

This slide shows changes in total enrollment in Jeffco schools (Neighborhood, Option, and Charter) since 2012. As you can see, the fall in Grd 1 enrollment (a proxy for birthrate declines) is much smaller than the fall due to other factors.

Let's look at enrollment changes in more detail. As you can see below, district-managed Option schools have added students since 2012.

District-authorized Charter schools have also added students, but slightly fewer than Option schools.

The real story is Neighborhood schools, which have lost more than 11,000 students since 2012. And most of that loss has not been due to falling birthrates. Closed schools during the pandemic are part of the story. But as you can see, those students haven't returned.

This slide shows annual enrollment declines at Neighborhood schools, and two key student achievement indicators. CMAS has higher standards for proficiency than TCAP did. As you can see, before COVID, the increase in enrollment losses tracks with continued poor CMAS results.

If we don't acknowledge Jeffco's challenges, we can't meet them. The data say birthrate declines were a much smaller cause of the district's enrollment losses than other factors, one of which is almost certainly poor academic results.