Greg Shill Profile picture
Sep 4 4 tweets 2 min read
One way to think about the role of lease timing in return-to-office plans:

Imagine two peer firms with 10-year large-footprint leases, one that expires in December 2029 and the other in December 2022. Which one would you expect to put more effort behind mandatory in-person work?
Relevant background:

—Subleasing would be at a loss, if feasible at all
—Managers & owners reportedly favor in-person work more than employees
—In theory, remote work (still) involves more unknowns than in-office c. 2019*

*No one seems to think 2019-level face time is possible
I recently wrote about remote work in the context of Biglaw.
I also have a new paper on remote work (and employee geography generally) in publicly traded software companies, exploiting a new SEC disclosure requirement re: human capital management. #HCM #remotework

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More from @greg_shill

Apr 24, 2021
Anyone have a theory on what's going to slow house prices?

On the demand side, we have low rates, equities & savings ⬆️, delayed HH formation now materializing, stimulus, some increase in telework, etc.; supply: zoning, raw materials & labor shortages, empty nesters staying put.
Love the sentiment, but sadly this would probably increase prices by further reducing supply :(
If you buy Summers' theory that inflation is on the cusp of accelerating, then housing prices would accelerate too (maybe faster)!
Read 4 tweets
Mar 10, 2021
A great post for its realism & sensible disaggregation of linked issues. In the US, EVs have extraordinary climate mitigation potential. They don’t solve everything (eg road deaths, congestion). But given land use constraints they’re a very promising strategy in near/medium term.
I’m even more optimistic on EVs as decarbonization than this. They mechanically replace ICE 🚗 trips ~1:1; no transit intervention does. And, it’s easier to make few centralized changes to the grid than countless distributed ones to transpo infra/behavior.
noahpinion.substack.com/p/we-will-not-…
The second half of the post,
however, expresses unwarranted pessimism on targeted efforts to put the right of way in dense areas to more productive use than car traffic. There’ve been many high-performing interventions in a variety of US cities; this part was a bit puzzling, tbh.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 7, 2021
May have to write on this, but policies to reduce car deaths no more require a personal opinion about cars than policies to reduce theater fires do about theaters. It’s mystifying how regularly I get notes—from smart people!—to the effect of “cars RULE” or “cars SUCK.” Anyway. Image
Countries with traffic death rates one half, one quarter of ours per population. Do you think they “hate” cars? Lol.
Many countries have roads that are (measured by the variable of your choice) far more dangerous than ours. Do they “love” cars? Also lol.
Read 6 tweets

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