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Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
@BurggrabenH
Sep 5, 2022 • 17 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Let us look at the state of the European gas market.

We have worked hard to collect real time data where possible and are convinced to have a worldclass database by now.

What did we find out?

Thread 1/n
#TTF #LNG Image
Big picture first:

- Consumption: -12.2% yoy;
- RUS pipe imports: -48% yoy (inc. RUS LNG imports -42%);
- Local Production: +0.6% (Groningen could increase EU production by 10% alone within weeks);
- LNG imports: +70%.
- Net storage build: 45bcm!

2/n #Netherlands Image
Storage:

- ITA, FRA, GER, POL or CZE have done a great job saving gas to fill salt cavities et al "whatever it takes style".
- UK cannot b/c it lacks storage;
- EE struggles to access more flows;
- EU covers 51 of 180 winter days (<2 months).

So it needs flows!

3/n Image
Put differently, the EU now lost 180bcm (on 470) of annulised RUS gas! Storage 100% filled won't be enough without SAVING gas.

Subj to weather, the EU needs to save up to 20%, some countries more, some less (ESP/PT does not need savings).

4/n EU fill level in % @vonderleyen Image
In fact, savings is 3x more important than storing gas (both matters).

Take GER: it can storage max 2 months of gas (24bcm). Without flows, that will take it to Dec.

GER has flows from NOR & NL/BEL LNG re-imports & saved 16% YTD. Issue is..

5/n
Bundesnetzagentur reports >9bcm imports in Aug (3.3 TWh/d) which does NOT match real time reported 3.3bcm consump. + 3.3 builds - 0.5bcm prod.

Either BNA missed 3bcm of exports, some industrial consumption is unreported or both. Either way, it needs 6-9bcm/month flow.

6/n Image
VVP knows that which is why I explained countless times to study the LEADERS instead of theorising about what makes economic sense.

VVP does not care about the RUS economy at this stage. Instead, he & Patrushev dream about an empire. Accept.

7/n
Hence, it did not come as a surprise to us that Nord Stream 1 flows have stopped yesterday too (Yamal and Brotherhood - ironic name, isn't it - flows aready ceases to exist). These are the facts, the rest is noise.

8/n Image
More precisely, we predicted this back in July and explained its potential consequences for the European gas market and its economy at some length in an interview below on Real Vision.

Turns out we were in the money.

9/n @AndreasSteno
Now it's all about LNG.

VVP reduced flows by the exact same amout as EU increased LNG (42bcm YTD) and finally cut it to zero. Consequently, the EU will have to import 200bcm of LNG in 2023 to compensate the loss if consumption remains 12% reduced yoy. Can it?

10/n @OKalleklev Image
We think it can, but only if politicans don't mess it up.

It needs to conditions:
a) A price that outbids Asia for LNG; and
b) Enough re-gas capacity.

The EU has capacity, but at the wrong places. At 60% utilisation (150bcm pa), it is effectively maxed out for now.

11/n Image
If you want to read up on the European gas market or LNG bottlenecks, here is some material.

Part I (25 tweets)

12/n
Part II (another 25 tweets)

13/n
Part III (another 25 tweets)

14/n
Anyway, we explained what can improve and improving it does.

We identified 150bcm (!) of #LNG regasification terminal or FSRU projects, of which 20bcm are under construction for delivery in Q4 22 or Q1 23 & another 130bcm soon to be started - worldclass!

15/n Image
That is a lot of #LNG.

Adding it up & assuming ESP/FRA will debottle (STEP project), Europe ends up having 390bcm pa of re-gasification capacity by 2025.

Our view: it will be more. Everybody & their brother is sick & tired of #Gazprom (VVP) as a supplier.

16/n @OKalleklev Image
As for price, TTF trades at a $20/MMBtu premium to JKM. That is plenty to redirect LNG away from Asia and into Europe.

But if the EU Commission caps TTF (not just its price for power gen), it will mean Europe must save 30-50bcm more in 2023 & til production increases.

17/n End ImageImage

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More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Dec 5
Oil forecasts for 2025 have a wide range of outcomes, from balanced to a surplus of 4mbpd (IEA). Which one is it?

I’ve counted too many barrels over the years to engage in the debate. The oil market is dynamic while forecasts are static by nature.

But…

1/n
…we know that…

1) oil on water (includes floating storage) and oil in transit well surpassed Covid levels.

Part of it reflects inefficiency of the sanctioned Russian & Iranian oil trade as well as the recent US sanctions on Rosneft & Lukoil.

Part of it is an outright bearish oil market = too many barrels chasing too few buyers -> needs lower prices.

2/n: Oil in transitImage
2) Weak Chinese petroleum product consumption:

China is in recession due to its property bust and despite the CCPs desire to steer clear of it by forcing every other industry to build what isn’t required domestically (overcapacity issue) and then dump goods onto global trade.

Because of the latter most observers still don’t get the painful economic status China is in. But China is in it.

Also, the CCP prefers coal fuelled transportation as well as LNG truck driving for the purpose of geopolitics.

Both requires less, not more, diesel and gasoline in 2026 vs 2025. Jet and Naphtha are different story but won’t drive oil buying by refineries => Oil demand by 2nd largest economy globally is bearish. Accept.

However, the CCP may take the absurd to the next level in 2026 and force refineries to build even more floating-roof oil tank storage (as part of meeting an artificial Soviet 2.0 plan within its Investment-led Growth Model) in which case refineries may buy more oil next year, but not for the purpose of producing more petroleum products but solely for storages. If they do so, however, their crude oil buying will be EXTREMELY price sensitive.

Time and State companies oil quotas will tell.

PS: If u care to understand China’s property bust structurally, here is a link to my 7 part Stack series. It remains as valid then as now.

3/n
 open.substack.com/pub/alexanders…
Read 13 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Aug 4
Let me add a few more facts & figures and some high level observations about the United States goods trade deficits with Switzerland of some $20bn annually.

A thread

1/8
Upfront and from a Swiss patriotic view:

The Swiss government and certain companies have little reason to lament—these tariffs were foreseeable.

Yes, the real issue is their scale: 39% compared to Europe’s 15%, which clearly puts some Swiss exports at a competitive disadvantage. It is what it is.

And while I still believe this situation is fixable, we must be prepared for the worst-case scenario to persist—or even worsen, with potential new tariffs on pharmaceuticals (currently exempted).

So, who is at fault? As some of us learned in officer school during military service: the Bundesrat misjudged the fundamentals of strategic assessment—Lagebeurteilung (judgement of enemy situation). That needs to be addressed. Trump wants balanced trade. Address it. Period.

History is not kind to those who choose dreams over reality—or to the weak who paint themselves as victims.

Therefore, whether Trump’s trade deficit logic makes any sense whatsoever (which it clearly doesn't in the Swiss case) is beside the point.

He’s the president. He has communicated his views clearly and consistently for decades. Adapt. Take the man seriously.

Trustworthy or not, as lamented by President Keller Sutter is none of our business.

2/n @SecScottBessent @BobgonzaleBob
Let’s now take a closer look at Switzerland’s goods trade surplus with the United States.

At Burggraben, we rely on the OEC tool (a paywalled MIT spin-off) for robust global trade data as part of our investment analysis process of all sorts—so we can assess this with confidence. I hope our readers will appreciate the data quality shared herewith for free.

While the annual trade surplus has fluctuated in recent years, the underlying—or let’s call it intrinsic—gap consistently hovers around $20 billion, as the data below will show.

3/nImage
Read 8 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Jun 12
Let’s break down the current Iran–US–Israel situation, based on the latest facts and statements.

1) What’s the @POTUS stance?
Trump has been consistent for years — and reiterated just yesterday: “Iran cannot have the bomb. Period.”

1/n
2) Does Iran already have the bomb?
We don’t know for sure — but here’s what the latest IAEA report says:

🔎 Iran remains in non-compliance with key nuclear commitments. This finding could pave the way for renewed sanctions.

2/n
iaea.org/newscenter/sta…
More concretely, Iran likely enriched some 250kg of HEU stockpiles since 2021. Worse, it also said to adds significant new capacities.

That material so far could quickly be turned into the fuel for the equivalent of 10 bombs, should Iran’s leadership take the political decision to pursue weapons, according to Bloomberg.

3/nImage
Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Apr 28
Here is my theory how the major incident - a so called blackout - occurred at 12:30 CET today in the power system of Spain & Portugal:

1/n Image
At the time of the incident, Spain and Portugal operated the grid at very high renewables share of about 66% - i.e solar (55%) and wind (11%; eolica)

2/n Image
Image
While this isn’t unusual for Spain, it does mean that the grid operates with little inertia (resistance to change) during such time. The grid is therefore vulnerable to external effects…!

3/n Image
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Apr 3
On this platform, certain perma bulls keep pushing a bullish crude narrative based on relative U.S. inventories—day after day, for three years now.

Their logic: Total U.S. crude inventories (including the SPR) are at 838 million barrels (orange line), 200 million barrels below the 10-year average → bullish!

Yet, inventories keep falling, and prices remain stuck in a range. Clearly, they are wrong.

1/9 @UrbanKaoboy @Iris62655179 @BrentRuditLeoImage
The problem with their logic?

a) The U.S. is no longer the marginal importer of crude oil—Asia is (or was).

b) U.S. inventories are artificially high on a 10-year average due to the shale boom, which took off in 2014. Shale growth and Covid distort the data, keeping inventories (ex SPR) elevated. So any 5- or 10-year comparison is meaningless—period.

2/n US Crude Oil Inventory ex SPRImage
Including SPRs, the picture looks more normalised - but not tight. But does the US really need 700mb of strategic reserves in 2025? I don't think so.

3/n US Crude Inv incl SPRs Image
Read 9 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Mar 23
Yesterday, I shared a few thoughts that I’d like to expand on, especially given how volatile the current tariff landscape under this admin has become.

Navigating it isn’t just difficult—it’s nearly impossible to avoid missteps. Hopefully some traders will expand on my thoughts...

1/n
What do we know?

As at 23 March 2025, Comex copper price in New York is trading at 14% premium to LME in London. Buying a tonne of copper in NY costs $11,213 versus 9,842 in London, $1,371 per tonne more than in London.

2/n Image
Why is that? Because of tariff FEARS, not tariffs.

Traders are hedging future risk of potential tariffs on all forms of the raw material, such as cathodes, concentrates, ores, and even scrap. But there aren't such tariffs in place for copper yet (unlike alumnium).

3/n
 fastmarkets.com/insights/us-ta…
Read 9 tweets

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