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Philipptbs

Sep 6 • 24 tweets • 18 min read

A THREAD about russian losses.

Why the real losses of russia should be much higher than the Oryx list (I really admire their genius work, they should get payed for this!)

1/n

first: Because of the fact that the Ukrainians were the most time in the last month in the defensiv, many losses dissapeared behind the front lines in russian occupied areas and of course they dont want to show us them. And especially from cities like Mariupol or..

2/

Sieverodonetsk we dont have a lot of videos or pictures.

We saw those different types of reasons for russian losses: Javeline, ATGM, mines, artillery, small drones, Brimstone, TB2, aircrafts, suicide drones, NLAW/RPG/ AT4, Panzerfaust/ Matador etc., HIMARS/MLRS, Tank/IFV ..

3/

and last but not least technical failure.

Lets look at how many videos we see from each.

4/

Javeline:

UAF got more than 7000 Javeline rockets, they should have fired some thousands but we saw maybe between 100 and 200 videos of Javelines hitting russian vehicles. The first video occured weeks after the invasion started. I guess we maybe saw 25 %.

ATGM:

We see quite a lot of Stugna-P videos because they have a screen, but much less of Konkurs or Milan etc. So maybe there are some hits we dont know about. I guess we saw 75 %

6/

Mines:

we saw a some videos of russian vehicles hitting mines, but there should be hundreds of russian vehicles hit by mines we dont know about. I guess we saw 30 %

7/

Artillery:

yes we saw a lot of videos, but there should still be a lot of artillery hits on vehicles we dont know, especially by rocket artillery. It is quite not possible to film hundreds of artillery strikes every day. I guess we saw around 50 %.

8/

small drones:

we see a lot of videos because they all have a camera but still I think we dont get 100 % of the videos. Given by the big number of those drones we should see much more videos.

9/

Brimstone (and maybe APKWS):

we saw very very few videos. Given by the fact that they got hundreds of them. We maybe saw 10 % of all losses hit by Brimstone.

10/

TB2:

I really cant tell you how much they are operating them in the attack modus. Maybe we saw 10 % of all hits, maybe 100 %.

11/

Aircrafts like Su25 or Attack Helicopters:

I cant remember a video showing us a Su25 oder Helicopter hitting a vehicle, but they are constantly flying. So we know only about a very small number of the losses done by the airforce.

12/

Suicide drones:

We never got a video of Phoenix Ghost, very few Switchblade or Warmate. Maybe we saw 10 % of all such losses.

13/

NLAW/ RPG/ AT4/ Panzerfaust/ Matador/ etc.:

There are quite a lot of videos but those are used in heavy ground combat when the soldiers usually dont make videos. And even if they make a video or picture they might got killed before sending it to somebody.

14/

HIMARS:

we see Videos or pictures from bases hit by GMLRS but given by the number of strikes (british MoD said that they made 350 strikes in the last months) we saw quite a small number and the russians try hard to not show us the devasting impact of GMLRS strikes on video.

15/

Tanks or ACV:

Its not a war with big tank battles like we expected but there should be quite a lot of losses by guns of tanks and APCs and usually they dont have a GoPro on top of the turret.

16/

technical failure:

We all know about the corruption in the russian army, the bad quality of maintinance or the bad training of soldiers and that they drink to much wodka.The russian losses by technical failure and stupid handling should be MASSIVE.

17/
END