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Rob Lee Profile picture
@RALee85
Sep 7, 2022 • 40 tweets • 12 min read • Read on X
According to the Russian Starshe Eddy channel, not only is Balakliya encircled but Ukrainian forces appear to have taken Volokhiv Yar over night. They think Ukraine will try to push towards Kupyansk.
t.me/vysokygovorit/… Image
Another Russian Telegram channel says that Ukraine increased the intensity of missiles strikes, particularly HIMARS, over the past week on Izyum, Kupyansk, and other areas. They say Ukraine has been preparing for the offensive for at least a month. 2/
t.me/grey_zone/14922 Image
Another Russian channel says “don’t expect good news today” before saying Russian units there are below 50% manning levels while the staff are bloated. Two Rosgvardia detachments have been fighting for more than a day encircled near Volokhiv Yar. 3/
t.me/notes_veterans… Image
Vladlen Tatarsky says he trusts the info from the Starshe Eddy and Zapiski Veteran channels who are both involved in the fighting in the Kharkiv-Izyum direction. He says the two encircled Rosgvardia units are SOBR from Samara and Bashkiria. 4/
t.me/vladlentatarsk… Image
Another Ru account says they are only fighting at partial strength and that the Russian state must be fully mobilized. They question why capabilities are being shown at Vostok 2022 when Russian soldiers lack artillery and aviation. “We have a long and difficult fight ahead of us” ImageImageImage
t.me/notes_veterans…
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This was Putin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov at Vostok 2022 yesterday as Ukraine launched its offensive in the Balakliya area. 8/
Tatarsky tells Rosgvardia troops to learn how to call for fire before deploying and how to use AGS grenade launchers, ATGM, and SPG-9. A reminder that they aren’t trained for conventional war. 9/
t.me/vladlentatarsk… Image
Another Russian Channel questions why battalion and company commanders didn’t see the offensive coming and prepare and that they shouldn’t have made a public warning if higher ignored them. They suggest senior officers are incompetent and ignored Intel.10/
t.me/NeoficialniyBe… ImageImage
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Already a strong theme from the Russian Telegram accounts that this is a Russian military leadership failure that is putting soldiers on the front lines at greater risk than they should be. 12/
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Starshe Eddy is criticizing people saying Ukraine lacks reserves in the Balakliya-Izyum area. He’s angry with generals and senior officers but praises juniors soldiers and officers doing the fighting. 15/
t.me/vysokygovorit/… Image
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Not a good sign for Russian forces in Izyum if Pegov sounds this pessimistic. 30/
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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
May 3
When we evaluate how weapons perform, it is important to note the conditions in which they operate. Abrams were committed into the fight this winter at a time when Ukraine had a lack of infantry as well as mines, ATGMs, air defense, and artillery ammunition. This may seem bizarre from the outside, but Ukraine often employs tanks in a manner to compensate for a lack of infantry or ammunition for other systems because those are the conditions they face.
If you don't have enough artillery or ATGM ammunition, you may bring up a tank or Bradley to engage Russian armor or infantry instead. This could involve placing an Abrams or Bradley at greater risk than you would like, but these are the organic assets that the 47th Mechanized Brigade had, and they come with a different supply of ammunition.
All weapons have vulnerabilities, and you mitigate those vulnerabilities through combined arms. When several of those arms are weaker (e.g. infantry, artillery, air defense), because of attrition or a lack of ammunition, others will be more vulnerable as well.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 26
Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all of Ukraine's issues. It should be seen as one part of a long-term strategy.
Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/
The bill and first PDA aid package announced this week will provide a quick boost to Ukraine's defenses. But it is important to keep in mind that the limitations aren't just appropriated funds but also production capacity and size of stockpiles. Greater artillery ammunition deliveries will help reduce Russia's 5-6:1 artillery advantage, but it will not give Ukraine parity. 3/
Read 25 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 21
Russian sources are saying that Ukraine is dropping caltrops on roads to damage their vehicles' wheels. When the vehicles stop, they are then targeted by artillery or FPVs.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…

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Video from Madyar showing them being dropped from UAVs. 2/
t.me/robert_magyar/…
From the beginning of the full-scale invasion. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 18
Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition.

t.me/milinfolive/12…
t.me/RVvoenkor/66374
Videos posted over the past ten days by a Russian Telegram channel associated with the VDV’s 106th Airborne Division of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating in the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar area. 2/



t.me/vdd98/3092
t.me/vdd98/3165
t.me/vdd98/3131
t.me/vdd98/3103
Videos from the past two weeks showing reported Russian FAB-250 and FAB-1500 UMPK, UK RBP Grom, and artillery or S-8 strikes in the Chasiv Yar area. 3/





t.me/vdd98/3089
t.me/vdd98/3170
t.me/vdd98/3006
t.me/vdd98/3075
t.me/vdd98/3062
t.me/vdd98/3053
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 30
Both Russian UGVs were struck by FPVs from Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade.
t.me/brygada47/613

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Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 18
This was an interesting article about how Ukraine reopened grain exports by putting Russian ports at risk, particularly given Ukraine's current campaign targeting Russian oil refineries.
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Read 4 tweets

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