Thread by @JBelcourt73

So are we panicking yet? Of course not! We are on the side of Life and Liberty and watching Ukraine make significant gains near both Kherson and Kharkiv as well as more minor gains near Donetsk amps us in a good way. For the Russians however they now have some serious problems.

With an army that is wobbly and under pressure the standard fixes are to find units that are reliable and move them into blocking positions to give shaken units time to settle down in a safer area while also building reserves for counter attacks (local, spoiling and counter

force) so that any penetrations by the enemy are both harder and vulnerable to defeat before they can be carried through. Yet how to do that under a HIMARS umbrella of death and across a vast area of terrain with an army that is miniscule compared to the frontage it has to guard?

By WWII standards, the Russians are attempting to fight 3 operational sized battles with a total force barely big enough to conduct 1. This will make shifting units that can be relied on to act as blockers or counter attackers difficult. Now add in destroyed bridges, poor

training, shortages of supplies and meddling from political higher ups whose goals are political not operational and you get a mess. Further, if the Ukrainians are using a bite and hold approach then the blocking forces may either be ignored and Ukraine will attack where they are

not, or Ukraine may attack where they are specifically to attrit units that Russia needs to keep in the fight simply because kill them where you find them works when the enemy is running out of men. Its a pickle and may be why the, "there is no panic" message was so common on

Russian sites yesterday. Many of them did not even change the wording but just started posting a copy and paste message from Kleptograd Center. All of this though may open up a new discussion about social media and the conduct of offensive operations. Last night on @MriyaReport

I caught the tail end of a conversation between @SpencerGuard and @ChuckPfarrer about using social media to encourage Russians to surrender by showing humane treatment. Now dropping leaflets and using loud speakers to encourage enemy troops to surrender is old hat, but backed by

social media and perhaps ground truth from mothers inside Russia? I known the GC prevents the exploitation of POWS, but is this a grey area? The prohibition on pictures stems from the ban on public curiosity and humiliation. "Hey I am alive and well, my wounds got dressed, I am

not hungry or abused, and I have access to a phone to call home don't seem to fit but I am not a lawyer. The reason I bring it up is previously @SpencerGuard has talked about the "golden bridge" concept where an attacker leaves a way for the enemy to retreat especially when the

goal is to gain control of terrain vs merely destroying the enemy. Could social media provide a "golden door" where troops could be convinced to walk through and secure their future lives? I think its a discussion worth having. Another thing discussed was designating Wagner as a

terrorist organization. Feelings where mixed so here are my thoughts now. The UN is powerless because of Russia's veto. The ICJ and ICC have limited jurisdiction and reach and individual states taking action on a state by state level even collectively just feels "lacking" and

runs into issues of unified definitions. I am going to posit a different path. I don't know if its feasible but here goes. What is to stop one of the allied powers that signed the Moscow Declaration: Statement on atrocities (1943) creating the European Advisory Commission

from asking that the fellow powers reconvene the Nuremburg Tribunal for the purposes of rendering an opinion on Wagner as it relates to the Tribunals decision to designate the SS as a criminal organization. This would be a majority vote not one subject to veto and give the

a serious impimatur to any decision handed down. Just my .02 there for discussion. I wonder is @SenTomCotton would have any thoughts, he was a officer. He is my states junior senator with @JohnBoozman being senior. My local rep is @RepFrenchHill. Of course on the ground Wagner

is being hunted like rats by the ZSU and UASOF so not many have much hope of getting out of Ukraine alive as they seem to be one of Russia's main choices to build those blocking forces I talked about earlier. Because they take direct part in combat operations rather than

acting in a supporting role they are already unlawful combatants and subject to summary execution. Something most of us will do a Jeremy Clarkson on

Now its time to change gears a little bit. Yes Ukraine is advancing but offensive operations use up huge amounts of equipment so continued western support is critical. Make sure your leaders know where you stand on the war. For want of a shell the soldier was lost, for want of

soldier the battle was lost.... To butcher Shakespeare. Likewise, while we can't provide shells we can help make sure that other gaps are filled. @MriyaAid is an obvious choice and donations to @georgian_legion go directly to combat units. @Teoyaomiquu's winter drive is

literally burying his house under an avalanche of amazon boxes. #WeAreNAFO #Fellas and Ukraine supporters everywhere have proven they possess a generosity of spirit that is unmatched. Donations will help more Ukrainians survive the war. Sadly, as Ukraine liberates more territory

more will be revealed about the #GenocideOfUkrainians by #RussiaIsATerroristState. each village and city freed will add more Ukrainian voices, but will also reveal evidence of voices we will never hear again. Each liberated village also costs Ukraine because victory only looks

like victory compared to defeat. This young lady sadly gave her last full measure of devotion to her homeland and her people.

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1567397248299835393?s=20&t=2WLa38a3EBHu5dTjd0-1rA

Until the dying stops because Ukraine won on Ukraine's terms: Slava Ukraini! #UkraineWillWin #whatpanicdoing @mfa_russia <--- still losing now flavored with panic sauce

PS don't forget the IAEA's indictment of Russian actions.

@threadreaderapp unroll please