Very exciting news: Daily Kos Elections has calculated the results of the 2020 presidential election for all of the new, post-redistricting congressional districts that will be used in the November midterms! dkel.ec/3RG5Qou
Data for all 435 districts is available in a single chart, right here. These #s reflect how the 2020 election *would* have gone under the new lines.
We also include data for predecessor districts so that you can see how each seat has changed dkel.ec/3F2Vtpq
There's an *incredible* wealth of information to be gleaned. This chart, for instance, shows the small number of "crossover" districts: Just 14 Dems represent Trump seats while 15 GOPers sit in Biden seats. This is near historic lows
We can also see that the nation's new median district, the Flint-based #MI08, is 2.4 points to the right of the country as a whole. In addition, it's 0.4 points further to the right than the old median, #IL14, showing the impact of GOP gerrymandering
There's much, much more. For example, the closest seat in the nation is #AZ06 at 49.3-49.2 Biden—a margin of 0.1%, or about 300 votes. The reddest is #AL04 (80-19 Trump) while the bluest is #MD04 (90-9 Biden)
Want even more granular detail? This spreadsheet shows the presidential breakdown by county for each congressional district, including for counties split by district docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
And you know that we're extremely committed to transparency at @DKElections. That's why we've published all of our spreadsheets showing our calculations, state-by-state dailykos.com/stories/2013/0…
And if you're curious to know exactly *how* we calculated all of these numbers, we've put together an explainer right here dailykos.com/stories/2022/9…
We have a lot of people to thank, but we're especially indebted to @michalmigurski and the @vest_team. Without their work, none of this would have been possible
But if you're just looking for one link to bookmark, this is it! Daily Kos links from 20 years ago still work, so you can be sure this one will always be good. Let us know what you uncover! dailykos.com/stories/2021/9…
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Hero of the night is looking like @votevets. They spent $500,000 to help Pat Ryan in #NY19 and were the only Dem group to really get involved in terms of independent expenditures
No AP call in #NY23 GOP primary yet, but NBC has called it for state party chair Nick Langworthy. Black eye for Elise Stefanik, #3 in the House GOP, who endorsed racist Carl Paladino—a move that led other House GOP leaders to claim she'd "gone rogue"! nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
The DCCC did run a joint ad with Ryan (it seemed like a so-called "hybrid" ad, where costs are split), but it's not clear how much the cmte spent on it axios.com/2022/08/10/new…
The AP has called #FL11 GOP primary for Rep. Dan Webster. The longest-serving state legislator in FL history and its first GOP state House speaker since Reconstruction turns back far-right activist Laura Loomer in shockingly tight contest.
Over in GOP primary for open and dark red #OK02, former state Sen. Josh Brecheen leads state Rep. Avery Frix 54.5-45.5. Group affiliated with Club for Growth spent heavily for Brecheen, a former Club fellow.
AP calls #FL13 GOP primary for Trump's candidate, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna. She'll face former DoD official Eric Lynn in seat GOP gerrymandered into 53-46 Trump.
Gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost has expanded his lead in safely blue #FL10. 76% of estimated vote in, he's beating state Sen. Randolph Bracy 34-25; ex-Reps. Alan Grayson and Corrine Brown at 16 and 10.
#FL11 is TIGHT. 71% of estimated vote in, Webster leads Loomer 47.8-47.7, margin of 95 VOTES.
Two of #FL11's four counties, Orange and Polk, aren't reporting anything. If Loomer's strength is confided to The Villages, gives Webster breathing room. If not ...
Polls have closed in most of Florida, where a huge amount of votes usually start coming in early; Oklahoma is at 8 PM ET/ 7 local time, New York 9 ET. We'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
This is the biggest U.S. election night from now till November. Check out our cheat sheet for what to follow! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
#AZ06: Juan Ciscomani takes 48-20 lead with 53% of estimated GOP vote in. For Dems, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel leads state Rep. Daniel Hernandez 61-34 with 65% of estimated vote in. Biden would have won new seat just 49.3-49.2
57% of estimated vote in for #WA03 top-two. Dem Marie Perez at 32%, pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler leads Trump-backed Joe Kent 25-20.
Over in #WA04 top-two, pro-impeachment Rep. Dan Newhouse at 27. Dem Doug White leads Trump's guy, Loren Culp 26-22 for second.
Meijer takes a 50.5-49.5 lead with 55% of estimated vote in thanks to more votes out of his Kent County base. Again, not getting a winner for a while. #MI03
We're minutes from a LOT of results out of Arizona and Washington, though more votes will be tallied in both states over the coming days.
AP calls GOP primary for red #MO04 for Mark Alford, a former TV anchor in Kansas City.