ON BRAZIL INDEPENDENCE DAY (a thread). The Bicentennial of independence was hijacked by Bolsonaro. It should be an inclusive celebration. Under a normal administration, former presidents, foreign heads of state, heads of other branches of power, governors, civil society... 1/
... and business leaders would attend. Rather, Bolsonaro was incredibly isolated. The head of the Senate and the chief justice declined attending. More surprisingly, even the House Speaker, Bolsonaro’s pragmatic ally and enabler, skipped the celebration. 2/
The president was surrounded only by military politicians and fringe figures dressed in off-color outfits. For his narrow mentality, perhaps it was a win since he seemingly secured the support of the armed forces – the player capable of staging a coup. 3/
It is clear that a coup does not have the support of any relevant player in the country besides the military and the loony (and sometimes they overlap). In any case, desperate to boost his electoral chances, Bolsonaro denied to most Brazilians their space in the polity. 4/
The president threatened the court, asked for votes as if he were in a electoral rally, raised doubts about the polls and the electoral system, and praised his own penis (sic). Beside him, a businessman investigated by the federal police stood out. 5/
But Bolsonaro did not catch anyone by surprise and offered more of the same. Some pundits and media outlets even considered that he was more moderate than they expected. No self-coup was attempted, no violent attack was staged against the supreme court. 6/
The streets of Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo were reasonably packed. Bolsonaro has around 30-35% of the votes, according to the polls, and part of his followers are fanatics that see the election as a struggle of the good against the evil. 7/
Populists do this. Even when they have the support of 30% or less of the population, they remain capable of rallying multitudes on the streets. I saw that in Venezuela under Chávez and Maduro. What may prevent Brazil from facing a Venezuelan fate is... 8/
...the independence of our institutions, a free and fair election, and a stronger civil society. Then, although less fanatic and less mobilized, a silent majority may oust the undesired leader. 9/
Even if defeated in the ballots, however, Bolsonarismo will remain as an extreme political ideology with elected politicians in Brasilia and throughout the country. A Capitol-like event may take place to prevent the victor to be sworn in. 10/
And if a new administration begins, the new president will still face a fierce and violent opposition. Bolsonaro was aiming at that today. /End/ #brazil #IndependenceDay @FinchelsteinF @BrazilBrian @ianbremmer @OliverStuenkel
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