Mark Moss Profile picture
Sep 7 12 tweets 5 min read
Has inflation peaked, or is this only the very beginning of a period of structurally higher inflation?

Time for a thread🧵 on globalization, inflation, deflation, and hyperinflation👇

Nobody in macroeconomic circles knows what's coming next.

Will the central banks save us from a recession?

Or will they crush the demand too much and send us into an economic depression?

Are we gonna see a $50 barrel of oil, or are we gonna see a $200 barrel of oil?

Has inflation peaked?

What if the inflation we’re seeing today could actually be some of the lowest levels of inflation that we’re going to see this decade!

Most think that's IMPOSSIBLE, but ''deglobalization'' might have something to say about this!

What we're seeing all around the world today, is the end of a long-term secular trend of globalization and centralization.

Globalization has been able to hide the effects of the massive monetary expansion central banks have created over the past 15 years.

Since the 80s interest rates have been in a long-term secular decline, while our world was becoming more globalized and interconnected.

This resulted in deflation and acted as a gravitational pull that kept the cost of goods and services artificially low.

This era is over.

Now, that's all reversing, and we're going through a paradigm shift.

Globalization has ended, and interest rates can’t go much below 0.

The phase shift that's coming is something we've never seen before...

Phase shifts typically happen VERY rapidly.

Hyperinflationary events are great examples of ''phase shifts.''

Trust can be lost in the currency rapidly, and once it's gone there's no coming back!

For example, in Germany, a loaf of bread cost only 1 German mark in 1918

5 years later, it was 200 Billion marks!

Volatility is also always very high when we go through these transitions.

The red line measures the monthly percentage swings in the gold price during the 1920s

On 8 seperate occasions there was a 50% drawdown in the price of gold between the years between 1917 and 1923

Volatility always comes with new eras!

I also think we can learn a lesson from a very interesting period of time in the 1990s in Zimbabwe.

In 1987, Robert Mugabe became the president of Zimbabwe.

At the time Zimbabwe was known as the ‘’breadbasket’’ of Africa.

In only 13 short years Robert Mugabe destroyed the economy, food supply and currency.

He started wars, racked up lots of debt, and tried to control the food supply...

Sound familiar to our governments today?

He essentially cut Zimbabwe off from the rest of the world...

This wasn't the only similarity between the west today, and Zimbabwe in the 1990s!

Make sure you catch my full video linked below, where I break all of this down and show you where I think deglobalization will take us.

That's a wrap!

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More from @1MarkMoss

Sep 9
Is The Federal Reserve Fighting The Global Elite?

Time for a thread 🧵on inflation, deglobalization & the war between the most powerful people in the world👇

1/ Image
He who controls the money controls the world!

Most people assume that ALL the central bankers in the world are all working together in unison to control and debase our money.

But what if that’s not entirely true?

What if there was actually a war for power also occurring between the central bankers themselves?

This is nothing new.

Many great empires have risen and fallen on many occasions throughout history.

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 18
In June 2022, inflation hit a 40-year high at 9.1%, and many were pleasantly surprised to see the July data come in at 8.5%.

Everybody is rejoicing that inflation has had its first meaningful decline since 2020

Has inflation peaked, or is the worst yet to come?


The underlying problem causing the 40-year record-breaking inflation we see all around the world today, still hasn’t been solved!

Supply shortages are still ravaging the world, and the Central Banks continue to think that they have the power to control the uncontrollable.

Supply shortages are the 900-pound elephant in the room.

How can inflation peak if we haven't solved the problem facing our rapidly deglobalizing world?

Central bankers' tools won’t solve this problem.

CBs are learning they can’t print oil or wheat.

Read 15 tweets
Aug 10
🔴Today's CPI Print Dropped!!

Is it time for the FED to pivot, ease off rate hikes and go back to easing now that they are "data dependant"?

Or, are they waiting for something to "break" and if so, what is that something?

7 charts in a short 🧵to explain 👇
1/ The "Liquidity" cycle dictates the direction. Looking at the charts, we can see the direction, size, and speed of the moves

M2 is receding YOY and the direction is changing. On the chart, you can see Global M2 contracted in 05' before the GFC and 19' before the 20' recession ImageImage
2/ Liquidity is like the ocean tide, rising and falling. When the tide is rushing in, it lifts all boats, everyone is a genius, when it liquidity dries up, the easy money is gone,people go broke

To see when the tide (liquidity) will swing, you can see it in the US Treasuries 👇 Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 8
What's Really Behind The Jobs Market Data that NO ONE is talking about, and... the "Real" recession that they won't report on

You don't have to be a Ph.D. to understand this, how the data lies, what this really COSTS YOU, and how to protect yourself

explained in a short 🧵👇
1/ Ph.D. Economists use technical jargon to make economics seem complicated so we just defer to them, thinking they must know how to control this complex economy

But... economics is simple, it's basic logic, so let's look at the job data using basic logic and a historical lens
2/ History gives us a frame to understand what's happening and where things will go.

If you touched a hot stove and burned your hand (history) then you would understand if you did it again, you would most likely have the same outcome
Read 11 tweets
Aug 6
Lots of talk today about #Bitcoin and #Crypto being regulated, and even Bitcoiners calling for regulations on other cryptocurrencies

I do not like and even reject the framing:
"Regulations Will Help Adoption"

4 basic reasons why, a short 🧵👇
1/ #Bitcoin is already one of the heaviest regulated assets there are, every agency chimes in

IRS, CFTC, FinCen, SEC, have all weighed in with their regulations, and today US Senate bill working to give regulation power back to CFTC

More regulation is NEVER the answer
2/ #Bitcoin is already perfectly legal to buy it right now, both personally and for institutions and corporations.

There is nothing holding it back, look at:
@Saylor and $MSTR + Fidelity + Coinbase + Blackrock, etc, I could go on...
Read 6 tweets
Aug 4
ESG / Climate measures used today, are nothing new...

There is an exact parallel in recent history, that we should all learn from

Time for a short 🧵on it 👇
1/ If you haven't heard of ESG, where have you been?

I am going to skip over this, but know its a way to increase Central Planning (CP) and control based on arbitrary rules

The main attack vectors today: Food, Energy, and Money
have been known for decades, were forewarned...
2/ Before we look at history, let's see what's happening today.

Sri Lanka is a great place to start. Central Planning (CP) with ESG goals as promoted by the WEF started there in 2018 with a plan to be Net Zero emissions by 2050

They proclaimed Sri Lanka would be RICH by 2025
Read 13 tweets

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