Thread by @JBelcourt73

Good morning, ready for a run down as I understand the situation? Well you're gonna get one anyway. The big focus right now is obviously on Kharkiv. Lots of videos, reports of Russian telegram channels going nuts liberated territory Yay! But is that Ukraine's focus?

Perhaps all the videos and reports are just misdirection aimed at influencing Russian decsion makers and taking their eyes off the real ball. After all Ukraine is practicing extreme opsec elsewhere so the info-flood here is perhaps deliberate.

Is Kherson the focus? Maybe something else. For Ukraine what is the biggest prize they can win before winter? Liberating all of Kharkiv Oblast will provide a serious morale boost and hopefully push the last of Russia's conventional artillery away from the city and its suburbs.

It would also open up a way to drive south towards Izium and towards the Donbass and promise the liberation of Ukrainian lands lost both in 14 and more recently. Or do the Ukrainians just keep going east? reaching the border has promise in liberation

as well as forcing Russia to deploy scarce resources away from other areas to protect Belgorod. While a Ukrainian invasion of Russia is unlikely losing a major city would be a disaster for Putin's legitimacy. He wants to be a Peter not a Nicholas II. So even if Ukraine does not

want Belgorod Russia has to act like they do. The other "in the news" option is Kherson. A huge number of Russian troops are now trapped on the wrong side of the river and the supply situation there is bleak. Losing Kherson would mean losing control of Crimea's fresh water and if

Ukrainians were able to cross the river then they have a back door route to drive on Zaporizhia and/or drive up the coast and cut the direct route from Crimea into the rest of Ukraine proper. But there might be a third goal and it might actually be Ukraine's actual schwerepunkt.

Be on the lookout for a third offensive in the middle aimed at splitting the Russian forces off from each other. Russia is already facing a massive transportation crisis because of a shortage of trucks, rail cars and of course bridges. Removing any semblance of interior lines and

put the fear of liberation into separatist leaders. Since we don't know for sure what Ukraine has to work with this is all speculation, but it would seem to follow that Ukraine is looking for ways to win some major victories before the weather shuts everything down and leave the

map in a position that would confound Russian desires to freeze the conflict while also bolstering western support through a winter Russia is increasingly screeching will be the "snows of doom" to try and frighten any wobbly EU leaders and citizens they can while also trying to

shore up domestic support by saying things are not as bad as they seem. Whatever Ukraine does have though is still on the increase. The latest Ramstein meeting is underway which will result in Ukraine getting more hands into the cookie jar of western kit. Lend Lease is about to

kick in, in a big way. America's political leaders like @POTUS, @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill can be forever proud of the steps they took and are taking to make sure Ukraine could defeat Russia. We can be proud too. Charities like @MriyaAid and others have

translated millions of our dollars and euros into real support for Ukraine. We helped fill the gaps. #WeareNAFO #Fellas have provided the @georgian_legion with hundreds of thousands of dollars that helped them compost countless Russians who yearned to be sunflower food. The free

world has really stepped up in a way Russia and her tyrant allies thought impossible. Then again bad analysis by Russia in this war seems to be the one thing Russian's consistently stay the course on. Anyone think anyone was more surprised at Ukraine's fearless will to resist

than Russia? At this point in the war, that Ukrainians will not simply lay down and die is accepted as the norm everywhere but a few deadender Russian troll/bot accounts. Yet go back in time and look at all the "Ukraine can't win" comments that used to be made. Not us of course,

thanks to spaces like @MriyaReport we have been listening to Ukrainian voices like @MrKovalenko, @Teoyaomiquu, @OTorvaldson, @katalina_ada, @ferlain who made it very clear quitting was not an option. What they said has been backed up by SME's including a number of retired general

officers like @general_ben, @WarintheFuture and the spaces own military experts like @CasualArtyFan, @JaysonGeroux, @SpencerGuard who all came together to create a fact based pro-Ukraine space that you really should listen to and follow if you don't already. Good information is

going to be even more important now. The one thing neither side in this conflict can control is the weather. The campaign season is into its final quarter. By the end of October temps and rain/snow will begin to have a major impact on things and slow it down. Where Ukraine ends

before then will be hugely important as both sides prepare for the drying ground next April. Here again I think Ukraine will have the advantage. Russia is struggling to find bodies and replacement kit. While we mourn every Ukrainian murdered by the Russians, the fact that she

mobilized her entire society to resist combined with Lend Lease means the Ukrainian force that flowers next spring should be the better of any force Russia could ever dream of building. Until Ukraine wins of Ukraine's terms: Slava Ukraini!

#russiaisateroriststate #GenocideOfUkrainians #UkraineWillWin #Pedoputin @mfa_russia <--- still losing now everywhere but in your own minds.

@threadreaderapp unroll please